Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS/ANALYSIS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine will continue escalating its strikes, pushing Moscow towards precisely this overextension. Kiev is likely calculating, perhaps not without reason, that given the growing fatigue of the Russian population from this senseless war, our authorities will either softly capitulate or finally restrain themselves and soon collapse." - Igor Girkin (Strelkov)
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan apologises for the delay in recording. He explains that he initially got sidetracked by a long thread about tank losses, which he will attempt to summarise later in the video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - General Staff Figures
🎦 00:31-01:27⏩
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, highlighting:
- 1,690 personnel losses (a very high number).
- 7 tanks (slightly below the daily average).
- 19 troop-carrying AFVs (slightly below the daily average).
- 29 artillery systems (very high).
- 14 drones (another low day, possibly due to a drone warehouse being hit).
- 66 vehicles and fuel tanks (fairly expected number).
Russian vs Ukrainian Losses - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 01:27-03:50⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's loss list, noting a ratio of about 2.5 to 1 Russian to Ukrainian losses.
- Combat asset losses are about 1.5 to 1.
- When ATVs and civilian vehicles are included, the ratio is between 2 and 3 to 1.
- Ukrainian losses include a radar, artillery pieces (including a Bohdana), tanks, APCs, and some trucks and civilian vehicles. The loss of a radar is considered fairly significant.
- Jonathan notes that he was expecting to see more Bohdana self-propelled howitzers on the list, given Ukraine's ramped-up production, but suggests their absence might be due to a decrease in Lancet drone usage.
Russian Losses - Andrew Perpetua
🎦 03:50-04:40⏩
- For the Russians, almost all losses are destroyed and abandoned, indicating a good ratio for the Ukrainians.
- Losses include an air defence unit (TOR M2), 10 tanks (mostly T-80, T-72, T-62Ms), a dozen infantry fighting vehicles (all BMP-2s and 1s), a single BTR-80 APC, Kamaz trucks, ATVs, and various civilian vehicles.
Russian Personnel Losses in 2024
🎦 04:40-05:11⏩
Commander-in-Chief General Sersky reports that since the beginning of 2024, Russian forces have lost 421,000 personnel (killed or wounded), the highest figure since the beginning of the full-scale war. This represents over half of their total personnel losses, occurring in a single year compared to the previous two.
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North Korean Troop Losses and Treatment
🎦 05:11-08:04⏩
- John Kirby reports over a thousand North Korean losses in the last week.
- Kirby states that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable, similar to artillery shells.
- Jonathan highlights reports of North Koreans not receiving adequate air cover or artillery support.
- North Korean troops reportedly opt for suicide over surrender due to fear of family reprisals.
- Jonathan suggests these myths about torture and family reprisals benefit Russia by preventing captures and intelligence leaks.
Russian Soldier Reports 70 Losses in Kharkiv
🎦 08:04-08:47⏩
A Russian soldier reports that Ukrainian forces have destroyed 70 Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region. Ukrainian drones are reportedly finishing off the remaining troops. This is just one small area of one sector of the front, indicating significant Russian losses.
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Reconstitution of Russian Naval Infantry Brigades
🎦 08:47-10:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses the repeated reconstitution of Russian Naval Infantry Brigades (Marines) and VDV (paratroopers), which are supposed to be elite units.
- Due to heavy losses, these units are being reconstituted with less experienced recruits, diluting their quality and leading to a vicious cycle of increasing losses.
- The 44th and 155th Brigades down in Vuhledar have been reconstituted nine times as of a year ago, and the 810th, used in Krinky and Kursk, has suffered heavy losses and had many commanders killed in a HIMARS strike.
810th Brigade to be sent to Plakovo for Recovery
🎦 10:46-13:54⏩
- The mauled 810th Brigade is being sent to Plakovo for recovery.
- Plakovo is located near the contact line, making it a questionable choice for recovery.
- Jonathan finds it insane that the Russians would send troops to recover so close to the front line.
- This further indicates the heavy losses suffered by the 810th and the Russians in the Kursk sector.
Russian Attack on Klishchiivka Repelled
🎦 13:54-14:50⏩
- 15 units of Russian armoured vehicles and up to three Russian assault platoons attempted to storm positions of the 93rd Mechanised Brigade near Klishchiivka.
- The attack was repelled, with the Russians taking heavy losses.
- Ukrainian forces destroyed six tanks (possibly T-62s, not T-72s), six BMP-2s, and damaged one more tank.
- Positions were held.
T-62 Tank Losses
🎦 14:50-16:42⏩
- Special Kherson Cat reports that five T-62 tanks were visually confirmed destroyed in the attack near Bakhmut.
- T-62s are expected to account for around 30% of all known Russian tank losses this month.
- Jonathan introduces a thread by Richard Vereker discussing the increasing proportion of older T-62 tanks among Russian losses.
- The thread highlights a spike in T-62 losses and a gradual decrease in T-80 and T-72 losses.
- T-90 losses have been a bit more consistent but slightly less this last month.
Ratio of Infantry Fighting Vehicle to Tank Losses
🎦 16:42-17:45⏩
- The ratio of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to tanks lost by Russia is increasing significantly.
- This could mean either they are losing more IFVs or they are losing fewer tanks due to a shortage.
- It's possible that tanks are being used as APCs, and the actual number of IFV losses might be consistent, but fewer tanks are being lost.
- It is likely that this is a mixture of the two scenarios.
Analysis of T-62 Losses
🎦 17:45-18:26⏩
- Richard Vereker from Warspotting (similar to Oryx) analyses T-62 losses, noting a record high proportion.
- Most are T-62Ms (first made in 1983), but a growing proportion are OBR 2022 variants, meaning they were taken out of storage, refurbished, and given a 2022 modification.
- This indicates a high attrition rate for tanks in general and the need to refurbish older models.
Analysis of T-72 Losses
🎦 18:26-19:25⏩
- Analysis of T-72 losses shows that the more recent OBR 2022 variants (refurbished models) are the main ones being lost.
- The older 2016 variants and the original T-72 BA, B, and B3 models are less frequently lost, indicating they might be depleted.
- The less common T-72 Ural and A variants are fairly insignificant among the losses.
Analysis of T-80 Losses
🎦 19:25-20:11⏩
- Analysis of T-80 losses shows an increasing proportion of 2022 variants.
- The non-2022 variants still make up the majority, but the T-80U (mistakenly labelled T-90 in the transcript) has gone from 60% to less than 5% in 10 months.
Analysis of T-90 Losses
🎦 20:11-21:53⏩
- Analysis of T-90 losses (most recent tanks) shows that initially, the T-90A (basic variant) made up 100% of losses.
- Later, the T-90M (best variant) started being used and lost, now making up the vast majority of T-90 losses.
- The T-90S is the export variant.
- The theory is that T-90As have almost disappeared due to losses and being rebuilt into T-90Ms.
- Russia claimed to have increased T-90M production from 60 to 200 a year, but this is likely an exaggeration.
- It's suggested that Russia is mainly upgrading older tanks to newer variants rather than significantly increasing new production.
- This is supported by the increasing proportion of 2022 variants of T-80s, T-72s, and T-62s among the losses.
Russian Production Claims = Refurbishment Claims
🎦 21:53-22:29⏩
- Russian production claims are likely refurbishment claims, where they take existing tanks and upgrade them to a 2022 variant.
- This is happening with T-80s, T-72s, and T-62s.
- For the T-90, the T-90M is likely the equivalent of the 2022 variant for other tanks, where they take a T-90A, upgrade it to a T-90M, and then lose it.
T-90 Production Rates
🎦 22:29-23:09⏩
- The claim of increasing T-90M production from 60 to 200 a year might be accurate if rebuilds are counted as new tanks.
- However, as T-90As are mostly gone, production rates might have come back down closer to 60 a year.
- This could mean fewer T-90s will be seen in overall losses until existing stocks are depleted.
- It's unclear what proportion of T-90s and T-80s are still being made.
New Graph Grouping Tank Losses
🎦 23:09-25:11⏩
- Richard Vereker introduces a new graph grouping tank losses into four categories:
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- This categorisation helps understand the types of tanks Russia is losing and their refurbishment capabilities.
Remaining Tank Stocks
🎦 25:11-26:17⏩
- Vereker created a table showing the remaining stocks of tanks in the three categories (modern, old complex, old simple).
- There are very few modern tanks remaining, about half of the old simple tanks, and a lot of old complex tanks.
- Over three-quarters of modern tanks are gone, while old complex tanks appear barely touched.
Credibility of Fewer Tanks Available
- Vereker asks if it's credible that the increasing ratio of IFV to tank losses is due to Russia having fewer tanks available, rather than losing more IFVs.
- He suggests it is credible.
Future Tank Loss Projections
🎦 26:34-27:03⏩
- Vereker speculates that T-90M production might have dropped, and T-80 and T-72B reactivation is dwindling.
- T-72A and T-64 refurbishment is unlikely at scale, so only T-62s and T-55s might be coming out of storage.
- This suggests Russia is reaching a problematic point where they rely on old, simple tanks from storage.
T-54 and T-55 Usage
🎦 27:03-27:34⏩
- Vereker suggests that most T-54s and T-55s are being used for tank crew training in Russia due to their size and the ability to fit an instructor with students.
- Their weakness on the battlefield doesn't matter in a training context.
- This would explain why few T-54/T-55 losses are seen compared to the number removed from storage.
Conclusion of Tank Analysis
🎦 27:34-28:34⏩
- Jonathan concludes that the Russians are likely running short on tanks, as evidenced by the types of tanks being lost.
- The losses indicate what Russia is able to produce or refurbish.
- T-90 losses might decrease as they cycle through upgraded T-90As, leaving only newly produced ones.
- More and more old, simple tanks are expected to be lost as they are taken out of storage.
- Even T-55s and T-54s might be lost, similar to the increasing T-62 losses.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to check out the original thread by Richard Vereker for a more detailed explanation.
New Ukrainian Drone with Shotgun Barrels
🎦 28:34-29:40⏩
- Ukrainians are using drones in new and innovative ways.
- A drone with two shotgun barrels is shown taking out Mavic drones in the sky.
- The drone has a movable camera, which is uncommon and useful for intercepting other drones.
- There are three different recordings of this type of interaction.
- This method allows the same drone to shoot several Mavics and reload.
Partisan Activity in Voskresensk, Moscow Region
🎦 29:40-30:07⏩
Partisans blew up carriages of a freight train at a railway station in Voskresensk, Moscow region. The train was used to provide logistics to the Russian army. This indicates partisan activity deep within Russia.
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Ukrainian and Russian Drone Strikes
🎦 30:07-30:47⏩
- Ukrainian air defence shot down 16 out of 16 drones, with 15 taken out and one suppressed by electronic warfare.
- The number of Shahed drones used has dropped in the last few days.
- Russia claims to have repelled a drone attack on the Voronezh region, taking out 10 out of 10 drones.
- However, trains were delayed, and debris hit the contact network on the railway, suggesting some success for the Ukrainians.
- Jonathan suggests there might be successful Ukrainian attacks that are not reported.
Details of Voronezh Attack
🎦 30:47-31:16⏩
- At least 10 explosions were reported in Russia's Voronezh region, halting train operations due to railway damage.
- Debris also landed on Voroshenskoye Kalchuk, part of the SIBUR Corporation, which produces thermoplastic elastomers.
- This suggests more success in Voronezh than the Russians are admitting.
Storm Shadow Strike on Military Facility in Oryol Region
🎦 31:16-32:18⏩
- Three Storm Shadow missiles hit a military facility in the Oryol region on Thursday, killing two soldiers and wounding seven, according to Astra.
- A warehouse of Shahed drones was destroyed.
- This strike was not widely reported initially.
- It demonstrates the use of Storm Shadow missiles deep inside Russia.
Details of Oryol Region Strike
🎦 32:18-33:58⏩
- On December 26th, the Ukrainian Air Force struck a fortified Russian military site in the Oryol region.
- The strike destroyed a secure storage, maintenance, and repair facility for Shahed drones, consisting of multiple reinforced concrete structures.
- The Storm Shadow's two-stage warhead (bunker buster) was used effectively.
- The facility was reportedly underground.
- Special Kherson Cat confirms the strike on the protective facility for Shahed drones.
- The operation significantly reduced the enemy's potential to conduct airstrikes with strike drones on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
- The location of the targeted facility has been geolocated.
- Satellite imagery shows the Russian underground facility used for storage and maintenance of Shahed drones.
- This is good news, demonstrating the continued use of Storm Shadows deep inside Russia with significant effect.
Consequences of Stopping Russian Gas Transit
🎦 33:58-35:52⏩
- Stopping Russian gas transit through Ukraine poses a missile strike threat to Ukraine's gas pipeline system.
- Without transit, the 38,600 km gas network could become a target like storage facilities and power sources.
- The gas transit system was previously ring-fenced from being struck as it transported Russian gas to Europe and around Ukraine.
- If Ukraine stops transiting Russian gas, Russia might start striking the pipeline, affecting domestic gas transport within Ukraine.
- This is a potential law of unintended consequences, as reported by Bloomberg.
Alleged Terrorist Attack Foiled by FSB
🎦 35:52-36:38⏩
- The Russians claim to have foiled another alleged terrorist attack, this time targeting criminals from their Ministry of Defence and a military blogger.
- This is the third or fourth such incident in the past few days.
- An IED disguised as a portable speaker with the power equivalent of about 1.5 kilograms of TNT was reportedly used.
- If true, the FSB is actively trying to prevent Ukrainian sabotage and assassinations.
Daily Express Article on Strelkov/Girkin
🎦 36:38-40:34⏩
- The Daily Express, a right-wing UK tabloid, published an article about Igor Girkin (Strelkov), who is currently imprisoned in Russia.
- Jonathan finds it interesting that the Daily Mail and Daily Express, usually pro-Brexit and anti-left, are vehemently anti-Kremlin and anti-Putin.
- This contrasts with similar publications in the US and Germany, which might repeat Russian propaganda.
- Despite potential tensions due to Putin's alleged support for the Leave campaign, these UK tabloids consistently portray Putin as a "bad guy."
- The article quotes Girkin warning that "Ukraine will continue escalating its strikes, pushing Moscow towards precisely this overextension."
- Girkin calls the war "senseless" and suggests Ukraine is prepared to wage war to the bitter end.
- He claims Russia's army is incapable of disrupting Ukraine's supply lines and that the Kremlin doesn't care about the suffering of the Russian population in Ukraine.
- Jonathan finds it noteworthy to see such an upbeat anti-Russian narrative in mainstream media, which often features doom, gloom, and Russian appeasement.
Margarita Simonyan on Expanding Russian Army
🎦 40:34-41:15⏩
Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russia Today, said that Russia's army should be dramatically expanded to 5-10 million men. She asserted that after winning in Ukraine, Russia should be ready to fight future wars that are inevitable.
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Russian Experts Expect Ukrainian Offensive
🎦 41:15-41:52⏩
- Russian experts on Russian propaganda television expect Ukraine to launch a new offensive in six to seven days.
- They suggest three possible zones: Bryansk, Zaporizhzhia, and a possible breakthrough in the Kursk region.
- Jonathan suggests the Kursk sector or further east, or north of the border into Russia, would be good options, but he doubts Ukraine has the necessary troops.
US Officials on Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk
🎦 41:52-42:25⏩
- US officials told Bloomberg that they believe Ukraine may only have a few months left in its incursion into Kursk before being forced to retreat or risk being encircled by Russian forces.
- This contrasts with Russian claims of an upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
- There are concerns about Ukraine not having enough troops to hold on to Kursk.
John Kirby on Russia Downing Civilian Azeri Plane
🎦 42:25-42:44⏩
John Kirby states that the White House has evidence beyond widely circulated wreckage photos that Russia downed a civilian Azeri plane. This is another significant omission, suggesting the Russians were responsible.
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Call for Stricter Sanctions on Russia
🎦 42:44-42:58⏩
Mick Ryan quotes Max Boot, saying that the downing of the Azeri plane is another argument for stricter sanctions on the Russian economy and more support for Ukraine.
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Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker Moved in Finland
🎦 42:58-43:51⏩
The Russian Shadow Fleet tanker, the Eagle S, suspected of sabotage and carrying spy equipment, was moved to the Svartbäck inner anchorage near Kylpylahtisatama in Porvoo, Finland. The transfer operation began at approximately 10:50 this morning. This indicates that the Finns are taking the matter seriously.
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Ukraine to Open Underground Schools
🎦 43:51-44:08⏩
- Ukraine plans to open over 150 underground schools by autumn 2025.
- 79 underground education facilities are under active construction.
- Another one opened yesterday in Zaporizhzhia.
- While it's positive that education can continue, Jonathan finds it sad that such measures are necessary.
Wrap up
🎦 44:08-44:43⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching the "bumper" video and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I understand all aspects of the tasks and transcript.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
I need to follow the instructions provided to summarise the transcript.
First, I'll extract the title, date, and part from the YouTube video title.
Next, I'll identify the topics within the transcript. I'll use "Hello Team" for the introduction and "Wrap up" for the conclusion. I'll pay attention to changes in subject matter to create specific, quantified, and granular topic titles.
After creating the topic titles, I'll determine the start and end timestamps for each topic, ensuring they match the transcript and cover the entire video duration.
Then, I'll write summaries for each topic, incorporating Jonathan's insights, analysis, and opinions. I'll use British English and correct any spelling or grammatical errors in the transcript, paying particular attention to Ukrainian place names.
Finally, I'll select a significant quote from Jonathan and note any queries or uncertainties I encountered during the process.
I'll make sure to output the response in the specified XML format, paying close attention to the tag structure and ensuring each tag has a corresponding tag.
