Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Andrew Perpetua's Weekend Loss Lists
Table of Contents 📖
"These are undoubtedly just outright war crimes here each one of those will be a war crime where the russians are purposefully targeting civilians and one theory is in herson direction they are using um the that area as a proving ground, as a training ground for their drone pilots where they go. And unfortunately, they train an awful lot of civilians..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back to the channel and explains that he is using his headset for this video due to feedback about audio quality. He expresses his slight disappointment as he prefers using his boom mic.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Explanation for Separate Video on Andrew Perpetua's Data
🎦 00:26-01:36⏩
Jonathan explains that he is releasing a separate video focusing on Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss data, as a backlog resulted in three days' worth of data, which would be too extensive to include in his regular hits and losses update. He highlights the significance of these figures, particularly as they indicate unusually heavy Ukrainian losses two days prior.
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Ukrainian Losses - Three Days Ago - Initial Observations and Caveats
🎦 01:36-03:20⏩
Jonathan begins analysing the Ukrainian losses from three days ago, noting the substantial number of losses compared to usual figures. He emphasises:
- Surveillance and Comms Losses: While significant in number, these losses are less critical as they are relatively easily replaced compared to heavy equipment.
- Civilian Vehicle Losses: The high number of Ukrainian civilian vehicle losses likely inflates the overall figures and warrants further examination.
- Unknown Losses: Some losses remain unattributed, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions.
Ukrainian Losses - Three Days Ago - Detailed Analysis
🎦 03:20-05:14⏩
Jonathan delves into the specifics of Ukrainian equipment losses, noting:
- Plastin RP 3000: He expresses the need to research this system further and encourages viewers to share any insights. (Jonathan thanks a viewer, Ivan, for a cup of tea).
- Destroyed, Abandoned, and Captured Equipment: A large proportion of Ukrainian losses, particularly infantry fighting vehicles, fall into these categories, which is concerning.
- Specific Losses: He lists significant losses, including a BM-21 multiple launch rocket system, tanks, a Dutch YPR 765, BMPs, Humvees, BTRs, MaxPros, Cougars, and Kozak MRAPs.
- Kozak MRAPs: While the loss of these indigenously made vehicles is not ideal, it highlights Ukraine's domestic manufacturing capabilities.
Ukrainian Losses - Three Days Ago - Trucks, Civilian Vehicles, and Deliberate Targeting
🎦 05:14-08:14⏩
Continuing his analysis, Jonathan highlights:
- Truck and Civilian Vehicle Losses: Numerous trucks and civilian vehicles equipped with night vision were destroyed, likely indicating a Russian Iskander strike on a logistics base.
- Deliberate Targeting of Civilian Vehicles: Jonathan condemns the destruction of civilian vehicles in the Kherson region, deeming it a war crime and potential terrorism. He theorizes that Russians might be using the area as a training ground for drone pilots, with civilians becoming unfortunate targets.
Ukrainian Losses - Three Days Ago - Summary and Russian Civilian Vehicle Targeting
🎦 08:14-09:03⏩
Jonathan summarises the Ukrainian losses, emphasizing that while significant, they are less alarming when considering the caveats he previously mentioned. He reiterates his condemnation of Russian attacks on civilian vehicles and the deliberate targeting of civilians in Kherson.
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Russian Losses - Three Days Ago - Initial Observations and Specific Losses
🎦 09:03-10:30⏩
Shifting to Russian losses from three days ago, Jonathan observes:
- Surveillance and Comms Losses: Similar to Ukrainian losses, the Russians also experienced losses in this category.
- High Proportion of Destroyed Equipment: Most Russian combat asset losses are destroyed rather than damaged or abandoned, indicating effective Ukrainian engagement.
- Specific Losses: Significant losses include a BM-27 Uragan multiple launch rocket system, a T-90M tank (highlighted as a major loss), a T-64BV, BMP-2s, APCs, and civilian vehicles.
Russian and Ukrainian Losses - Three Days Ago - Summary
🎦 10:30-11:00⏩
Jonathan summarises that the losses incurred by both sides three days ago were not overly substantial, with the exception of the Russian T-90M tank. He highlights the concerning trend of Russians targeting a high number of civilian vehicles.
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Russian and Ukrainian Losses - Two Days Ago - Initial Observations
🎦 11:00-11:46⏩
Moving to the losses from two days ago, Jonathan notes that the Russians suffered heavier losses compared to the Ukrainians, primarily due to significant artillery losses showcased in Ukrainian footage. He questions whether the consistent Ukrainian targeting of Russian surveillance and comms equipment is systematic or simply opportunistic.
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Ukrainian Losses - Two Days Ago - Detailed Analysis and Concerns
🎦 11:46-13:27⏩
Examining the Ukrainian losses in detail, Jonathan points out:
- Improved Damaged vs. Destroyed Ratio: This ratio is slightly better compared to three days prior, except for infantry fighting vehicles.
- Bradley Losses: The loss of three Bradleys raises concerns, particularly as he has not yet observed any recent shipments of these valuable vehicles to Ukraine.
- Other Losses: Other losses include a BTR-4, BMP-1s and 2s, and a Kozak-7.
Ukrainian Losses - Two Days Ago - American Equipment and Civilian Losses
🎦 13:27-14:14⏩
Jonathan emphasizes:
- American Equipment Losses: All damaged or destroyed APCs listed, including Humvees, an M113, and Strikers, were provided by the US. He is relieved that most were damaged rather than destroyed.
- Civilian Vehicle and Boat Losses: The destruction of both a military and a civilian boat by Russian forces is highlighted, further emphasizing the deliberate targeting of civilians and the war crimes being committed.
Russian Losses - Two Days Ago - High-Value Losses and Artillery Degradation
🎦 14:14-16:09⏩
Turning to Russian losses, Jonathan notes:
- High-Value Losses: Significant losses include a Buk air defence system, electronic warfare and surveillance equipment, and a Zoopark radar system, which represents a financially and strategically significant blow to the Russians.
- Artillery Degradation: The destruction of multiple D-30 howitzers by Ukrainian Kazan and FPV drones contributes to the high number of artillery losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Russian Losses - Two Days Ago - Destroyed vs. Damaged Ratio and Civilian Losses
🎦 16:09-16:47⏩
Jonathan further analyses the Russian losses, stating:
- Destroyed vs. Damaged Ratio: The ratio remains heavily skewed towards destroyed equipment, indicating successful Ukrainian engagements.
- Civilian Losses: A substantial number of civilian vehicles were destroyed, reinforcing the earlier point about the targeting of civilians.
Summary of Losses - Two Days Ago - Concerns for Ukraine
🎦 16:47-17:53⏩
Summarising the losses from two days ago, Jonathan reiterates that the Russians suffered heavier losses overall. However, he expresses concerns about the number of Bradleys and other infantry fighting vehicles being lost by the Ukrainians and questions their replaceability. He advocates for the US to potentially prioritize supplying more Bradleys, given their versatility and effectiveness in the current conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 17:53-18:01⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by stating his intention to return to his regular hits and losses updates and bids his viewers farewell.
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