Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"This could well be only the beginning of what number of troops they will decide to send. We are talking about the North Korean troops in Europe. Taking any of this lightly, like our leaders are doing is deadly deadly to Ukraine."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update for the 19th of October 2024 (part 1).
- He apologises for being late, explaining that he attended his 14-year-old son's 5k charity run.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses (General Staff Figures & Analysis)
🎦 00:38-04:16⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, highlighting a "really heavy day" with 380 personnel lost.
- He notes that this contributes to a record-breaking 30-day rolling average for personnel losses, as pointed out by "Dell" (a community member who tracks statistics).
- Jonathan examines Dell's statistics (linked in the video description) and observes a month of heavy casualty numbers for Russia.
- The 30-day rolling average for personnel loss is 1301.33, while the 7-day average is also high.
- Other categories like artillery, APVs (Armoured Personnel Vehicles), and tanks show high daily losses but not as significant in terms of rolling averages.
- He analyses tank losses, noting a recent increase compared to previous weeks.
- Jonathan also points out that while 19 troop-carrying AFVs lost is on par with the daily average, there have been higher numbers in the past few days.
- Artillery system losses are relatively low (15) compared to the average.
- 38 vehicles and fuel tanks lost is lower than usual, while 25 pieces of special equipment lost is significant (excluding a possible outlier day with 99 losses).
- He acknowledges the wide remit of the "special equipment" category makes it hard to draw conclusions without specifics.
- Overall, it was a challenging day for Russian forces, especially in terms of personnel losses.
Russian 87th Rifle Regiment Update (Avdiivka)
🎦 04:16-07:48⏩
- No update from Andrew Perpetua yet.
- War Translators' Dimitri provides an anecdote about the Russian 87th Rifle Regiment, where the drone pilots Goodwin and Ernest (previously reported killed in assaults) served.
- The regiment continues to push southeast of Avdiivka, possibly around the town of Sievierodonetsk, which is surrounded on the southeastern side of the salient.
- The regiment is suffering devastating losses, and commanders have cancelled the evacuation of wounded soldiers to avoid further endangering rescue teams.
- Injured personnel are forced to travel up to 10km of exposed terrain to reach safety on their own.
- Wounded soldiers are often rounded up and returned to the front line without treatment.
- The notorious commander, Puzik, remains in charge and removes officers who refuse to lead units into deadly assaults.
- This highlights the true cost of any Russian success in this direction.
- Putin showed no sympathy or care for soldiers during a recent meeting with BRICS journalists, despite the video and written testimonies of the ongoing situation and huge losses.
- Further details about the 87th Rifle Regiment:
- Out of 600 military awards, only 30 soldiers received theirs; the rest disappeared.
- The Russian Ministry of Defence stepped in to distribute the missing medals.
- The delay was due to a ban imposed by General Krym, who opposed awarding medals after the capture of Avdiivka (contrary to reports by Alexander Kots).
- The regiment has always had assault units and participated in assaults on Avdiivka's industrial zone alongside Pyatnashka units and mixed MoD forces.
- They suffered heavy losses during these operations, starting in autumn 2023 (when north Avdiivka and industrial areas were taken).
- Currently, the regiment fights west and southwest of Avdiivka and faces critical manpower shortages.
- The number of wounded is overwhelming, and injured soldiers are sent back to the front lines regardless of their wounds, with evacuation cancelled.
Ukrainian Tank Destroys Russian APC in Kursk Region
🎦 07:48-09:48⏩
- Jonathan discusses equipment losses, highlighting footage of a Russian BTR (armoured personnel carrier) approaching two Ukrainian tanks, mistaking them for Russian ones.
- The Ukrainian command post, observing via drones, communicates with the tank, informing them of the approaching Russian BTR.
- The tank then destroys the BTR at point-blank range.
- For the second time in three days, a Russian APC packed with infantry is hit by a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region.
- Jonathan plays audio of Ukrainian soldiers reacting to the successful hit, noting their elation and excitement at the battlefield success.
- He emphasizes the impact of the hit, describing the APC as "fundamentally disassembling".
- Jonathan acknowledges that there's likely footage of Ukrainians under pressure as well, given the difficult situation on the front lines.
HIMARS Strike on Russian Motorcycle Unit
🎦 09:52-13:37⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of a HIMARS strike on a Russian motorcycle unit, raising questions about Russia's access to proper equipment and the tactical use of motorcycles.
- He explains that while motorcycles offer advantages in terms of dispersed attacks (compared to packing troops into an APC), they also present challenges in targeting.
- Taking out a dispersed group of motorcyclists with artillery would require a large number of shells, which Ukraine may not have readily available.
- The use of a HIMARS round is more efficient in this scenario, as the cluster munitions can cover a wider area and effectively eliminate the unit.
- Jonathan questions whether using HIMARS for this purpose is the best use of the system, considering the limited resources.
- He acknowledges the need to neutralise the threat and the effectiveness of cluster munitions compared to artillery in this specific case.
Destroyed Russian Vehicles on Road
🎦 13:37-14:05⏩
- Jonathan presents a minute-long video showcasing a large number of destroyed Russian military vehicles along a road under Russian control.
- He comments on the sheer volume of destroyed equipment visible in just one minute of footage, highlighting the extent of Russian losses.
Ukraine Attacks Russian Positions with Aircraft-Type Drones in Kursk
🎦 14:05-15:27⏩
- Ukraine is attacking Russian positions in Kursk with aircraft-type drones, including the Luti drones (with twin tails) and other propeller-driven aircraft drones.
- These attacks are targeting the positions of the Russian 810th Brigade.
- The Russians are reporting an "abundance" of these drones in the area.
- Jonathan wonders about the specific purpose of these drones, whether they carry and drop munitions, or are used as kamikaze drones.
- He speculates that they could be used to strike infrastructure like oil refineries but questions their effectiveness in dynamic combined manoeuvres in the large Kursk area.
Car Bomb in Luhansk Kills Russian Official
🎦 15:27-16:06⏩
- Following up on yesterday's report about a car bomb in Luhansk, more details emerge.
- Russian official Major Dmitry Pervukha was eliminated in the centre of occupied Luhansk, according to the HUR (Ukrainian Defence Intelligence).
- The explosion occurred in his UAZ Patriot vehicle.
- Pervukha was the Chief of Staff for Military Service and Security.
Fire at French Fries Plant in Kaliningrad
🎦 16:06-16:47⏩
- A large fire engulfs a hangar at a French fries plant in Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave).
- Jonathan acknowledges it could be a health and safety incident unrelated to the war but notes the high frequency of such events in Russia.
Russian Drone & Missile Attacks Overnight
🎦 16:47-18:28⏩
- Russia launched a significant drone attack overnight, with 56 drones detected.
- Ukraine shot down 22 drones, while 27 were stopped by electronic warfare (AEW).
- This demonstrates the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities.
- Two drones reportedly entered Belarusian airspace.
- Five drones hit targets near the front line, potentially indicating a change in Russian tactics (using Shahid drones for frontline attacks instead of targeting key infrastructure deeper inside Ukraine).
- One KH-59 cruise missile also evaded Ukrainian defences.
- Footage emerges of a swarm of Russian Shahid 136/Geran-2 drones over Ukraine, suggesting the attacks might have continued into the day.
Drone Enters Romanian Airspace & Disappears
🎦 18:28-20:12⏩
- A small air target, likely a Shahid drone, entered Romanian airspace, prompting the country to scramble fighter jets.
- Two Romanian F-16s and two Spanish F-18s were deployed.
- The unidentified target flew 19km into Romanian territory and then vanished from radar.
- This incident is significant because NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had called for a response to such incursions following previous Russian drone and missile flights in Romania.
- Jürgen Naudit, a German analyst, had expressed scepticism about NATO's willingness to shoot down Russian drones, stating he would only believe it when he saw one on the ground.
- Jonathan speculates that the drone that disappeared from Romanian radar may have been shot down by NATO planes.
Russian Attacks in Odesa & Chernihiv Regions
🎦 20:12-22:17⏩
- Odesa was attacked, with damage reported in three separate locations.
- A three-story private house was damaged, and cluster missile remnants were found at the site.
- This could indicate the use of a KH-59 missile with a cluster warhead, which is particularly despicable if intentionally used in residential areas.
- Ten private houses were hit by falling debris, potentially from air defence systems engaging incoming threats.
- Minor damage was reported at a third site.
- Jonathan explains that damage in Odesa could be a consequence of successful interceptions or electronic warfare disabling drones, as falling debris can still cause harm.
- Russian forces attacked a critical infrastructure facility in the Chernihiv region (northern Ukraine).
- Sumy region also experienced attacks, with damage to energy and infrastructure facilities in the Shostka region, leading to power outages in several settlements.
- This could be the result of the five Shahid drones that got through Ukrainian defences.
Drone Attacks in Russia (St Petersburg, Bryansk, Chelyabinsk, Penza)
🎦 22:17-26:20⏩
- Russia reports a drone attack on St Petersburg, with power outages in parts of the city and footage of explosions in the Leningrad region.
- There have been strikes inside Russia, but details are often scarce.
- Jonathan suggests that Ukraine might be having more success with such strikes than is publicly known, especially when targeting sensitive facilities located far from populated areas.
- No Report states that drones attacked the Kremniy EL factory in Bryansk (across the border from Sumy Oblast).
- This factory, one of Russia's largest microelectronics manufacturers (producing components for air defence systems), was also hit in late 2023.
- PS01 reports explosions over Kopeysk in the Chelyabinsk region, 1800km from Ukraine.
- Eyewitnesses believe air defence systems were active. Kopeysk is home to the JSC Plastmat plant, which produces ammunition for the Russian Ministry of Defence.
- Jonathan clarifies that this attack occurred last night, not two nights ago as initially thought.
- Another attack from a couple of nights ago targeted an arsenal of missile and artillery weapons in Serdobsk, Penza region, 700km from the Ukrainian border, according to Astra.
- Several jet drones were used in this attack, potentially the Palantir drone or a French-developed fast drone (though the latter may lack the range).
- Jonathan reiterates that the lack of information about attacks inside Russia doesn't mean they're not happening.
Ukraine Negotiates Prisoner Exchange
🎦 26:20-29:09⏩
- Ukraine successfully negotiated the return of 95 prisoners of war from Russian captivity, including 20 facing life sentences, in a one-for-one exchange.
- Many of the returned Ukrainians are suffering from serious illnesses, injuries, and weight loss due to torture and malnutrition.
- This marks the 58th such exchange since the start of the full-scale invasion, bringing the total number of freed individuals to 3,767.
- The UAE acted as a mediator in this exchange.
- Jonathan highlights the human element of the exchange, mentioning a mother reunited with her two sons after two years of captivity.
Front Line Updates (Kursk, Luhansk, Donetsk)
🎦 29:09-31:25⏩
- Kursk:
- Ukrainians are facing significant challenges in the Kursk region.
- Russian forces have made advances and cut deep into Ukrainian-controlled areas.
- A large section in the northwest of the incursion is now contested (according to Warmapper and Deepstatemap, while Suriyak maps it as Russian-controlled).
- Luhansk (Svatove-Kreminna Line):
- Russians are pushing towards the Oskil River, which is a concern.
- They have advanced north of Nevske and are attacking in several locations along the Prokrosk salient (potentially the area where the drone pilots mentioned earlier were operating).
- Donetsk:
- Russians are attempting to move towards Karlivka, south of Ukrainsk.
- They are also pushing to cross the canal at Chasiv Yar, which is another worrying development.
- The situation in Toretsk is relatively stable compared to other areas.
- In the area north of New York, there's disagreement among mappers regarding the extent of Russian control.
- No Report's assessment differs from Suriyak's in that particular area.
- Overall, the Russians are putting immense pressure on Ukrainian forces across the front lines.
Potential Russian Offensive in Zaporizhzhia & Bridge Destruction in Oleshky
🎦 31:25-33:36⏩
- Following yesterday's report about a potential Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia, Jonathan notes that Russians have blown up a bridge in Oleshky (Kherson region) over the Konka River.
- The Konka River is one of the tributaries of the Dnipro River, and the area presents challenging terrain (marshy islands, multiple river crossings).
- Atash (a partisan group) claims the bridge was destroyed in anticipation of a Ukrainian offensive.
- They also report that Russian units within 15km of the area are on high alert.
- However, Atash acknowledges that there could be other reasons for the bridge's destruction.
- Jonathan doubts a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro is imminent, though Oleshky has been under pressure (especially during the fighting around Kinburn Spit).
North Korean Troop Deployment & Its Implications
🎦 33:36-36:25⏩
- Jonathan addresses the deployment of North Korean troops in eastern Russia, a topic he discussed extensively yesterday.
- In his recent live stream with Jake Broe, the latter downplayed the significance of the 11,000-12,000 North Korean troops, suggesting they wouldn't last long against Ukrainian forces.
- Jonathan disagrees, arguing that any additional troops and equipment will inevitably lead to Ukrainian casualties and deplete their resources.
- He emphasizes that Ukraine, already facing a severe resource shortage, now faces an even greater challenge with the introduction of North Korean forces.
- Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer ("Jojo") who expresses concern about downplaying the North Korean threat, highlighting that Ukraine is now effectively at war with two countries.
- The viewer also notes that North Korea has one of the largest armies globally (potentially able to mobilise up to 7 million men) and that any success for this alliance could embolden them to push further into Europe.
- Jonathan agrees with this assessment, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.
- He acknowledges that it might not be a catastrophic problem but stresses that it's undoubtedly a problem that will lead to more Ukrainian deaths and further strain their resources.
Apple Removes Anti-Kremlin Apps from Russian App Store
🎦 36:25-39:08⏩
- Apple has removed certain apps from its Russian App Store at the request of the Russian government.
- These include apps from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and the TV channel Current Time, both of which are US-funded and provide pro-Ukrainian perspectives.
- RFE/RL played a crucial role in the fall of the Berlin Wall, highlighting its importance as an institution promoting freedom of information.
- Apple's decision was likely motivated by financial considerations, as they would risk being kicked out of Russia if they didn't comply.
- Jonathan criticises Apple's compliance with the Kremlin's demands, arguing that it further entrenches the Russian narrative and silences dissenting voices.
- He suggests that Apple should have pulled out of Russia entirely, even though it would have meant a financial loss.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with Apple's actions and would consider boycotting their products if he used them.
Wrap up
🎦 39:08-39:11⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers and bidding them farewell.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Is "Dell" a specific individual consistently referenced or a general term for someone tracking statistics?
Are "Pyatnashka" and "pre uh sorry piat nashka" referring to the same unit? If so, what is the correct name and spelling?
Can you provide more information about the "Palantir drone"? Is this a specific type of drone or a general term?
Clarify the specific name and details about the French-developed fast drones mentioned in the context of the Serdobsk attack.
Is "Jojo" a known commenter or just a random username?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Task 1: Extract Title, Date, and Part:
I'll use string manipulation to remove the date and part from the title.
I'll convert the YYYYMMDD date format to DD/MM/YYYY.
I'll extract the part letter if present.
Task 2: Identify Topic Titles:
I'll carefully read the transcript and identify distinct topics.
I'll ensure each topic title is concise, specific, and quantified.
I'll follow the guidelines for the first (Hello Team) and last (Wrap up) topics.
I'll pay attention to Ukrainian spellings and separate topics by country/category/region.
Task 3: Determine Topic Timeframes:
I'll note the start and end timestamps for each topic.
I'll use the format MM:SS or HH:MM:SS as appropriate.
I'll separate multiple timeframes with commas if needed.
I'll use this task to double-check the completeness of my topic identification.
Task 4: Write Topic Summaries:
I'll provide concise summaries for each topic, including context and key points.
I'll use bullet points and formatting for emphasis sparingly.
I'll ensure Jonathan's insights and opinions are conveyed effectively.
I'll include credits, tea mentions, and address any transcript errors.
Task 5: Select a Quote:
I'll choose a meaningful, insightful, or humorous quote from the transcript.
I'll make sure the quote is concise and makes sense out of context.
I'll correct any errors in the quote.
Task 6: Record Queries:
I'll honestly note any aspects of the tasks or transcripts I didn't understand.
I'll avoid making assumptions and seek clarification instead.
