Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"You cannot advance on the front line without changing something."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has been working on a "behemoth" article about Russian interference in European elections and the rise of the far right across Europe. He apologises for the slightly later video as a result.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff posted significant Russian losses for the previous day, including:
- 1,100 personnel
- 30 tanks
- 32 APVs
- 31 artillery systems
These are huge numbers, even if you discount them by 20-30%. 2 MLRS, 4 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 32 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment were also lost.
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Measuring the Counter-Offensive
There are different ways to measure the success of Ukraine's counter-offensive:
- Territory gained (Ukraine fell short of goals like reaching the Sea of Azov)
- Degrading Russian capabilities (e.g. moving the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk)
Ukraine needs to continue degrading Russian equipment and logistics before launching another major offensive. They cannot simply throw troops at heavily defended Russian lines.
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Air Defence is Key
Zelensky outlined 5 reasons why strengthening Ukraine's air defence is the best strategic security investment:
- It saves lives
- It protects cities
- It enables success in the Black Sea and grain exports
- It saves resources needed to rebuild destroyed infrastructure
- It will force Russia to abandon its missile/drone terror tactics
Jonathan adds a 6th crucial reason - Ukraine needs air defence to enable a successful counter-offensive. They need to degrade Russian aviation and air defences before committing forces like F-16s. More air defence systems are being pledged and delivered to Ukraine for this reason.
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Equipment Losses
According to independent analysis by Andrew Perpetua, Russian equipment losses over the past 24 hours heavily outweighed Ukrainian losses. Notable Ukrainian losses included a French-supplied CAESAR artillery system to a Russian Lancet drone. Russian losses included 4 tanks, a bridge layer vehicle, infantry fighting vehicles, and many trucks/civilian vehicles.
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Russian Casualties
Footage from Kostroma, Russia shows a rapidly expanding cemetery with many fresh graves of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine. This represents just a fraction of the true Russian death toll, as many bodies are never recovered. It reflects the high casualty rate Russia is suffering.
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Overnight Attacks
- Russia attacked Ukraine with 3 Shahed drones overnight, all were shot down.
- Explosions were reported in Khmelnytskyi region.
- Russia attempted to shell a publicised Ukrainian military funeral in Kherson oblast, similar to the Hrozo massacre, but the timing had been secretly changed so casualties were avoided.
- 5 villages in Russia's Kursk region lost power after alleged Ukrainian shelling damaged power lines.
- Explosions were reported in occupied Melitopol.
- A major explosion occurred at a key Russian base in Dzhankoi, Crimea.
Other News
- The BBC uncovered evidence of a 2-year-old Ukrainian girl from Kherson illegally adopted by the wife of a senior Russian politician. Her identity was changed. This is one of ~20,000 cases of forced adoptions from Ukraine to Russia.
- A Russian journalist was killed in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Russian TV bizarrely showed footage of him after the attack, revealing he was wearing a Russian military uniform instead of press markings.
Wrap Up
Jonathan is continuing to work on his article about Russian interference in European politics, which relates to the topics covered on this channel. He will let viewers know when it is published.
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