Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Reznikov, Ivan Popov, Drone Release, & Source List

"If I were cowardly then I would look into the eyes of my soldiers and officers. I would simply lose face for the rest of my life and then I would never forgive myself for this cowardice."

Hello Team!

Jonathan mentions this will be a short video with some extra tidbits and nuggets of information about the war in Ukraine. He says he often claims it will be a short video but ends up going for 50 minutes, but this time he really means it will be brief.

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Oleksii Reznikov Dismissed as Defence Minister

• Ukrainian President Zelensky has dismissed Oleksii Reznikov as defence minister, although the decision still needs to go to Parliament for a vote.
• There have been rumours about this happening over the past week due to Reznikov being embroiled in some fairly serious corruption issues.
• The question was whether Reznikov had any direct involvement or if it just happened under his watch. Jonathan thinks the corruption has tainted Reznikov too much, even though he was likely too important to dismiss when the claims first emerged months ago.
• Jonathan acknowledges it's a difficult situation as Reznikov has a lot of knowledge, contacts, and has been instrumental in securing equipment for Ukraine from other nations. However, stamping out corruption is crucial and even if Reznikov wasn't directly involved, cleaning house is important if Ukraine wants to address the issue properly.
• Jonathan hopes Reznikov's replacement, a Crimean Tatar, will be just as good at the job. He gets the sense Reznikov was effective in his role but could be wrong.

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How Drones Release Mines

Jonathan shows a large drone and explains how it releases mines using a simple switch mechanism on a tray. He notes it's not particularly groundbreaking but wonders if the drones come with this functionality built-in or if the operators have to create the release mechanism themselves. However, he thinks it's probably more cost-effective to fire a RAM shell with 19 mines rather than fly them individually on an expensive drone.

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Major General Ivan Popov's Dismissal

• Major General Ivan Popov, the former commander of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army, claims he confronted General Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia's armed forces, so intensely that Gerasimov fainted. This led to Popov's dismissal in July 2023.
• In a leaked audio recording, Popov discusses his dismissal with former subordinates, stating he complained about high casualties and lack of artillery support. He urged officers to stand their ground and report the truth.
• Popov felt he had no right to lie and had to be honest about the problems in the army regarding combat work and support. He believes if he were cowardly, he would lose face and never forgive himself.
• The 58th Combined Arms Army is reportedly suffering from multiplying personnel losses and instances of problems being glossed over when reporting to leadership.
• Russian military blogger Igor Girkin confirms the information, stating the Ukrainians are slowly advancing while Russian TV is full of "hoorah" war cries. He doesn't understand what the Russian leadership is thinking and believes hoping for a deal won't work on their terms.
• Jonathan notes if you're a pro-Russian or pro-Kremlin individual, things aren't looking good for the Russian forces behind the lines based on all this information.

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Russian Troll Farms and Election Meddling

• Jonathan is reading the book "Blowout" by Rachel Maddow, which he highly recommends. While he thought it would primarily be about the oil and fracking industries, it actually focuses heavily on Putin and Ukraine from the 2014 crisis onwards.
• The book has chapters on the Internet Research Agency, a Russian troll farm in St. Petersburg, and its impact on US politics and Ukraine. Jonathan finds it incredibly insidious how they operate.
• The troll farms invent American and other international personas, occasionally drip-feeding contentious political content to stir up controversy. They cleverly spread disinformation through various avenues and latch onto certain movements, such as the Texas secession movement during the Trump campaign.
• Jonathan distinguishes between collusion and meddling, noting that while there may or may not have been collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, there was demonstrable meddling by Russia in US, UK, French, and German politics.
• He believes Russia is ahead of the curve in using troll farms and bots as a cost-effective way to harm other nations compared to traditional warfare. Even with the Internet Research Agency reportedly closed down, there are likely comparable entities within Russia continuing this work.
• The book details how the troll farm employees have targets for blog posts and interactions, operating like a performance-related job with the goal of disrupting foreign nations.

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List of Twitter Accounts to Follow for Ukraine War Coverage

• Jonathan shares a list from Jeremy on Twitter accounts to follow and avoid for coverage of the Ukraine war. He agrees with many of the assessments and follows a lot of the recommended accounts.
• Some of the key people to follow include Mark Galeotti, Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, Jack Watling, Justin Bronk, and Shashank Joshi.
• The list advises against following certain accounts like Phillips O'Brien and Trent Telenko due to issues with their conduct or reliability, which Jonathan agrees with based on his own experiences.
• Jonathan notes he follows some accounts despite disagreeing with them at times, such as Thomas Theiner, who the list recommends against following due to occasional lapses into propaganda.
• He will leave a link to the full list in the video description for viewers interested in who to follow on social media for Ukraine war coverage.

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Wrap up

Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and reminds them to check out the ATP Geopolitics Discord server, which has quickly become an active community. He encourages viewers to use it to discuss, share, and brainstorm ideas, including through live voice chats.

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