Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
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"This is one of the biggest threats going forward. This is something called epistemic security. So the idea that we worry about national security, cyber security, epistemic security is knowledge and truth. When we don't know what is right and what is wrong, chaos reigns."
Germany's military aid to Ukraine
- Germany has committed another €200 million for Ukraine's recovery, to be spent on education, healthcare, water supply and rebuilding cities. This brings Germany's total civilian aid to almost €1 billion.
- Germany is also providing a new military aid package, increasing their defence budget for Ukraine from $6 billion to $11 billion. The package includes:
- 3 more Gepard anti-aircraft tanks
- 3,155 mil smoke munitions
- 1 Beaver bridge layer tank
- 20 RQ-35 Heidrun reconnaissance drones
- 20 Vector reconnaissance drones
- 13 border protection vehicles
- 3 HX81 tractor trucks and 3 semi-trailers
France ramping up production of howitzers
- France is tripling production capacity of CAESAR self-propelled howitzers from 2 to 6 per month. This will allow them to:
- Replace the 18 CAESARs sold to Ukraine by early 2024, a year ahead of schedule
- Continue deliveries to French partners who want to equip their ground forces
Russia's artillery ammunition challenges
- Russia possesses around 4 million artillery shells, which could sustain a low intensity conflict for a year. However, they used 10 million shells last year.
- Russia can only build 2 million shells next year, so their fire rate will be down significantly.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine's ammunition production is being ramped up globally.
- This asymmetry, combined with the degradation of Russian artillery pieces, means Russia's artillery will be less effective going forward. It's a "vicious cycle".
Evidence of North Korea supplying Russia with ammunition
The Ukraine Weapons Tracker shared the first images of what North Korea has supplied to Russia:
- 122mm and 152mm high explosive fragmentation projectiles
These are already being issued to Russian artillerymen. If this opens the door to South Korea helping Ukraine more explicitly, that would be a net positive for Ukraine.
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New grain corridor tested between Ukraine and Latvia
Ukraine and Latvia have tested a new grain corridor allowing Ukrainian grain to be transported to ports in the Baltic states by rail. The first test train with Ukrainian grain was unloaded in the port of Riga, Latvia.
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Kazakhstan denies banning export of dual-use goods to Russia
Kazakhstan's trade ministry refuted earlier reports that they had banned the export of 106 dual-use goods to Russia. They stated that trade in dual-use goods subject to export control is carried out in accordance with Kazakhstan's international obligations.
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Russian officials must drive Russian-manufactured vehicles
- In August, Putin claimed all Russian officials must drive Russian-manufactured vehicles.
- A list of recommended vehicles for Russian officials has now appeared, including Lada, UAZ, Aurus, Moskvich, Evolute and Haval.
- Jonathan questions the quality of these vehicles compared to what officials in other countries like France drive (Renault, Peugeot, Citroën).
- This reflects Russia's "desperate situation" regarding imports and sanctions.
Russian propagandist advocates holidays in North Korea
- Olga Skabeeva, a Russian propagandist, visited Pyongyang to prove life in North Korea is "perfectly normal".
- However, the opposite was shown as she was followed and sternly told what not to say and film.
- Jonathan expresses disbelief that Russia has fallen so far as to send propagandists to advocate holidaying in North Korea while being censored by the regime.
Norway resident targeted for recruitment by Russian intelligence
Russian intelligence services tried to recruit a resident of Norway under the guise of being representatives of the Russian Geographical Society. The Norwegian was offered over $1000 to photograph military facilities in northern Norway.
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US warns 100 countries of Russian election interference threats
- The US has sent intelligence reports to embassies in around 100 countries warning that Russia is using information operations to discredit democratic elections worldwide.
- Jonathan emphasises this is one of the biggest threats going forward, calling it an issue of "epistemic security" - when we don't know what is true, chaos reigns and bad faith actors like Russia can capitalize.
- He distinguishes this from claims of collusion between Trump and Russia in the 2016 US election, which he says is still an open question.
Russian propagandists criticise Trump and praise Biden
- Russian propagandists, who have traditionally been very pro-Trump, are now openly laughing at him and criticising his remarks about Israel/Palestine. Some even praised Biden's speeches.
- Jonathan wonders if this is because Trump is in "deep water" legally with four serious court cases closing in on him.
- He questions if Russia is realising backing Trump is no longer worthwhile, or if this is just them "throwing a hand grenade" to cause more discord and chaos in US politics.
UN finds more evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine
A UN Commission of Inquiry has found additional evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine, including:
- Rape at gunpoint
- Threats of death or serious harm to victims/relatives
- Deportation of children to Russia
Jonathan questions how pro-Kremlin trolls can back Russia in light of this, predicting they will try to discredit the UN as the messenger rather than address the content.
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US-EU joint statement reaffirming long-term support for Ukraine
- The US and EU issued a joint statement recognising Ukraine's commitment to reforms and emphasising the strategic importance of Ukraine's EU accession process.
- They will explore directing extraordinary revenues from immobilised Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, if legal obligations permit.
- The US and EU want to deepen joint work to undermine Russia's ability to wage war and maintain/expand its defence industrial base and capacity.
Pro-Palestine rally in India uses Italian flags
- At a rally to support Palestine in India, protesters used Italian flags and hats, and misspelled "Palestine" on their banner.
- Jonathan points out signs this rally was organised rather than organic:
- Flags/hats all the same, likely bought and handed out by an organiser
- Most people just walking, not engaged
- Questions who printed and paid for the incorrectly spelled banner
- He wonders what "nefarious actor" prompted Indians, who likely have no stake in the Israel-Palestine conflict, to hold this rally.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share. He notes it was a longer video with lots of news to cover. He will be back with a frontline update which he thinks will also have a lot to discuss.
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