Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"NATO doctrine emphasizes the use of air force. So send us a squadron of F-16s or Grippins, including pilots, and we'll be done in two weeks."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war for June 30th, 2023. Russian losses for the previous day were slightly lower, possibly due to more man-to-man trench fighting taking place rather than mechanized assaults. Despite the lower figures, significant fighting is still ongoing.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Ukrainian Drone Strikes
The Ukrainian General Staff reported 560 liquidated Russian personnel, 3 tanks, 6 APVs, 11 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 6 drones, and 5 vehicles/fuel tanks destroyed. In one week, a single Ukrainian SBU unit took out 5 tanks, 3 self-propelled guns, 2 air defense systems, 2 howitzers, 1 EW system, 16 APVs, 23 vehicles, 6 firing positions/dugouts, and around 100 personnel using drones. Jonathan notes the challenges posed by the flat, heavily mined terrain and the threat of Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters to Ukrainian equipment.
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Overnight Missile Strikes
The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 10 out of 13 Shahed drones overnight, mainly in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. Russia also attacked with 4-7 S-300 missiles, which are difficult to intercept. The Russians are trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces on the right bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson using incendiary munitions. Explosions were reported in Berdyansk, possibly targeting Russian helicopters at an airbase, and in Melitopol.
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Kramatorsk Strike
The Russian MOD claimed the strike on Kramatorsk successfully targeted a temporary Ukrainian command post, killing two generals, 50 officers, and up to 20 foreign mercenaries/advisors. This contradicted initial pro-Russian claims of it being a Ukrainian false flag attack. The strike also killed several civilians, including teenage girls, at a pizza restaurant.
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Frontline Updates
- Luhansk region: Ukrainian forces report an 18-hour battle, repelling Russian attacks and inflicting 40 killed and 100 wounded.
- Velyka Novosilka axis: Ukrainian units have progressed south of Rivnopil, approaching Staromaiorske and Pryiutne, forcing Russia to deploy reserves.
- Zaporizhzhia direction: Ukrainians have advanced north of Robotyne over a 10km wide area and are close to entering the settlement. Fighting has possibly started east of Robotyne as well.
- Kherson: Russians failed to clear the area near the Antonivka bridge and suffered losses due to remote mining. The Ukrainian bridgehead remains intact.
Military Aid
- Ukrainian Deputy Commander-in-Chief Yevhen Moisiuk arrived in Israel for a working visit, possibly to secure military aid.
- The US has placed an order for 190 Canadian-made Roshel Senator armored personnel carriers for Ukraine.
- Reports suggest the US is close to approving ATACMS long-range missile systems and cluster munitions for Ukraine, which would be crucial for clearing minefields. However, official confirmation is still pending.
- Germany announced a new aid package including a counter-battery radar system, bridge-laying vehicles, demining equipment, and trucks.
- Spain will soon deliver 24 Uro Vamtac ST5 armored vehicles.
- Germany is training Ukrainian soldiers in NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) defense.
Wagner and Prigozhin
BBC investigations revealed that despite the recent mutiny, Wagner is still actively recruiting. Meanwhile, there are reports of a purge within the Russian elite and military, targeting those with ties to Prigozhin. Colonel-General Yudin, a deputy of the detained General Surovikin, was allegedly dismissed. Putin has been making unusually frequent public appearances, possibly using a body double, to counter the impact of the mutiny on his image.
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Geopolitics and Diplomacy
- Protesters briefly stormed the Swedish embassy in Baghdad over a Quran burning incident, which Erdogan suggested would pose another obstacle to Sweden's NATO bid. The burning coincided with Putin visiting a mosque in Dagestan and being photographed with a Quran, leading to accusations of him exploiting religious tensions.
- A Polish MEP warned that if Ukraine's counteroffensive is not successful by October, Europe might push to freeze the conflict. Some EU countries are still more interested in cooperating with Russia for economic reasons.
- US presidential candidate Mike Pence and activist Greta Thunberg both visited Ukraine. Thunberg highlighted the environmental damage caused by Russia, while Ukraine is investigating over 200 war crimes against the environment and 15 cases of ecocide.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the need to prepare for a long war and maintain support for Ukraine.
- The Czech government banned Russian athletes and teams from competitions in its territory.
- Russian billionaire Igor Makarov renounced his Russian citizenship, possibly to evade sanctions.
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the update and reminds viewers they can watch his videos at increased playback speeds to make the content more concise. He thanks the audience and signs off.
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