Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Possibly the biggest example of hypocrisy we've seen in a long time."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:40⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the second Ukraine War Update of the day, 12th January 2024. He mentions that he has already uploaded a video about the US/UK air strikes in Yemen that took place yesterday and explains the reasons why.

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UK military aid totalling £2.5bn announced during Sunak's visit to Kyiv

🎦 00:40-04:30⏩

UK PM Rishi Sunak is in Kyiv on a one-day state visit. He has announced a UK aid package for Ukraine totalling £2.5bn for the coming year, which Jonathan describes as "fantastic". This will include long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security. A further £200m will be allocated to procuring thousands of military drones for Ukraine, which the UK government claims is "the largest delivery of drones to Ukraine from any nation". Jonathan believes that this figure may be a world record, and describes the move as "really good news". He expresses a hope that the UK will go further and increase this amount, pointing out that the US has provided $61bn in military aid to Ukraine (although he does acknowledge that the sheer volume of the US defence budget makes this more achievable). Jonathan states that the UK "are putting their money where their mouth is", highlighting that the country has "been strong on the rhetoric and we've been strong on military aid".

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EU Military Aid: EC To Offer Hungary Concessions in Bid to Secure €50bn Aid Package for Ukraine

🎦 04:30-05:35⏩

In order to persuade Viktor Orbán to drop his veto on the €50bn Ukraine aid package, the European Commission is prepared to offer concessions to Hungary. These would allow Hungary the option of halting the financing operation midway through in 2025.

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Latvia Announces New Military Aid Package for Ukraine

🎦 05:35-06:14⏩

Latvia has put together a new military aid package for Ukraine, which Latvian President Rinkovic has confirmed will include howitzers, ammunition, anti-tank weapons, helicopters, drones, communication devices and other equipment. A memorandum for the production of drones for Ukraine has also been signed. In addition to this, Latvia will also supply Ukraine with SUVs, generators and winter gear.

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Estonia Pledges €1.2bn in Aid to Ukraine and Supports Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Military Targets

🎦 06:15-07:48⏩

Jonathan clarifies that it was Estonia (not Latvia, as he stated in a previous video) who supported the legalisation of Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets using Western weapons. The Estonian president has stressed that strikes on such targets should not be used as a reason to limit arms supplies to Ukraine, and has also announced that Estonia will provide €1.2bn in aid to Ukraine by 2027. Jonathan points out that this amount represents a considerable contribution from a country the size of Estonia, especially given that this will be spread over three years. He observes how the Baltic and Nordic nations have shown "massive assistance" for Ukraine, noting that "compared to the size of the country they are putting in a massive assistance project really putting it putting that into place for Ukraine - it's really fantastic". He goes on to acknowledge that some Swedish viewers have expressed dissatisfaction at the level of support that their country is providing, speculating that Sweden's bid to join the EU may be a factor in this.

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US Military Aid to Ukraine Suspended Pending Congressional Approval of Funding

🎦 07:48-08:30⏩

US National Security Council coordinator John Kirby has confirmed that US military aid to Ukraine has been paused until such time as Congress approves the allocation of new funding. The last package was sent on 27 December, which exhausted the existing funds available.

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Jonathan Discusses the Potential Impact of a US Retreat From Global Military Commitments

🎦 08:30-09:46⏩

The suspension of US military aid to Ukraine leads Jonathan to reflect on the possible ramifications of the US scaling back its global military activity and what this might mean for both the US and the EU. He wonders whether the US might see a lower return on investment as a consequence of focusing more on internal matters. He speculates that this could ultimately work in the EU's favour as the bloc would become less reliant on the US and would be forced to invest more in its own defence industry, which would in turn reduce the US's own industrial output. Jonathan reveals that he is planning an "Extra" video on this theme, in which he will discuss an article by Philip O'Brien. He goes on to mention a recent article by Sorian in Substack on the same subject. Jonathan then touches upon the often opaque nature of military aid and arms deals, observing that "when we see these things going around the world that you might initially go "yeah okay whatever" - for example recently Morocco got a bunch of Bradleys and you're thinking "Why are they getting Bradleys when Ukraine needs Bradleys?" And you start digging into the details "Oh it looks like Morocco might have given a bunch of T-72s and they found a way to Ukraine and that's why they get..." okay I'm starting to understand how things happen around the world but...

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Ecuador Refuses to Exchange Russian Military "Scrap Metal" for US Arms

🎦 09:46-13:11⏩

Jonathan highlights a recent example of a seemingly insignificant news story that could have a bearing on the war in Ukraine. Ecuador, a country currently grappling with the problems of drug cartels, gang violence and political instability - epitomised by the recent hijacking of a TV station by armed gangs - has announced that it will no longer exchange old military vehicles for US arms. Jonathan believes that this decision may not be entirely unconnected to the current impasse in Congress, speculating that "they will, I'm sure be recognising in the Department of Defense and people like John Kirby will be recognising that Ukraine bloody needs as much help from the US as possible, but they can't formally give it in terms of this - these big pots of money spent on defence industry to provide stuff for Ukraine. How can they... how can I help aside from that?" He believes that the US will continue to offer support to Ukraine via other channels, such as freezing Russian assets. Jonathan posits that this could involve the US facilitating the transfer of Soviet-era equipment from Ecuador to Ukraine in return for supplying Ecuador with $200m worth of modern equipment. This would suit all parties as it would provide a welcome boost for US arms manufacturers whilst also providing Ukraine with equipment that its armed forces are already familiar with, and which could be either used as spare parts or pressed into active service. He observes that "this is the kind of stuff I think that America is going to be doing behind the scenes and an awful lot of it's like "Okay if the Republican lawmakers aren't going to allow us all this cash to Ukraine we need to find other ways...""

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Ukraine's Domestic Arms Industry Triples Output in 2023

🎦 13:11-15:04⏩

According to Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Zavitnevich, Ukraine's domestic arms industry tripled its output in 2023 compared with the previous year. This increase has been accompanied by a drive to diversify arms production. In one example, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has approved the second sample of body armour specifically designed for female military personnel. The body armour has been developed by Ukrainian company Temp 3000. Jonathan argues that by providing female soldiers with equipment that is fit for purpose, more women would be able to serve on or near the front lines, which would ease pressure on the authorities to increase the numbers of men being called up to fight. However, he acknowledges that this would also have consequences for the roles that those women would otherwise be performing.

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Viewer Comment: Norway Donates F-16 Training Planes to Denmark & Ukraine Develops New Armoured Personnel Carrier

🎦 15:04-15:47⏩

Jonathan addresses a comment from viewer Peter Clifford about Norway's donation of F-16 training planes to Denmark and the training of Ukrainian pilots there. Peter also mentions the Novator 2, a new Ukrainian-made armoured personnel carrier which can carry 10 men and which is said to offer superior armour whilst also being 30% cheaper than similar vehicles manufactured overseas. Jonathan believes that Ukraine's domestic arms industry is well-placed to produce bespoke equipment that is tailored to the specific requirements of its armed forces, in addition to which the lower manufacturing costs allow the country to "get more kit for the same money".

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Ukraine: Government Bill on Mobilisation & Military Service Sent Back for Revision

🎦 15:47-17:04⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian lawmakers have returned a government bill on mobilisation and military service for further revision. This follows the submission of a number of amendments.

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Zelensky Rules Out Drafting Ukrainians Living Abroad But Condemns Men Who Fled Ukraine Illegally

🎦 16:05-17:04⏩

In a statement that appears to contradict the content of the previous topic, Ukrainian President Zelensky has dismissed suggestions that Ukrainians living abroad could be drafted into the armed forces. However, he has condemned those men of conscription age who left the country illegally. This follows reports that a man had been apprehended attempting to swim across a river (thought to be the Danube) into Romania wearing a wetsuit and flippers in a bid to avoid being called up. Zelensky stressed that Ukrainians have a patriotic duty to support the war effort, stating that "it's important not only to defend Ukraine at the front line but also to pay taxes to the budget". He argues that by fleeing the country, those men who did so are depriving Ukraine of much-needed manpower and are also no longer contributing to the economy as taxpayers.

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Leopard 1A5 Tank in Winter Camouflage

🎦 17:04-17:28⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a Leopard 1A5 tank in winter camouflage that was donated to Ukraine by Germany.

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Houthis Make Drones Out of Twigs

🎦 17:28-18:59⏩

In a segment that Jonathan introduces as being potentially relevant to both sides, he shows footage of a basic quadcopter drone that the Houthis have constructed using twigs for the main frame. He expresses his amazement at the ingenuity shown in building a drone out of such rudimentary materials, remarking that "you can make drones incredibly easily and in fact you don't need to buy expensive parts parts necessarily - you can make a quadcopter out of twigs, wow!" Jonathan goes on to point out that such rudimentary drones could easily be used as loitering munitions, or what he terms "one-way quadcopters". In theory, small explosive devices could be attached to the drones and used to target enemy vehicles or equipment. He acknowledges that there may be practical limitations to the use of such drones, musing that "I don't know how doable that would actually be - whether it'll actually be worthwhile but the idea is that goodness me you can make those things relatively easily..."

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North Korea Supplies Russia With 5,000 Rail Containers of Weapons and Uses Ukraine as a Testing Ground for Missiles

🎦 18:59-20:55⏩

North Korea has supplied Russia with 5,000 rail containers of weapons. Jonathan points out that this figure is considerably higher than the 1,000-2,000 containers previously reported. It has also emerged that North Korea has been using Ukrainian cities as testing grounds for its medium-range missiles. Jonathan is highly critical of the lack of consequences for North Korea, reminding viewers that these actions directly contradict US President Biden's earlier warnings. He questions what, if anything, South Korea will do in response to these developments, speculating that its burgeoning arms industry would put the country in a strong position to assist Ukraine: "south korea are becoming more and more important in the arms global arms industry and they are in a position to be able to help ukraine an awful lot..."

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Russia Circumvents Sanctions With Help From Asian Countries & "Middlemen"

🎦 20:55-23:40⏩

Despite the imposition of sanctions, Russia has so far managed to import almost $9bn worth of sanctioned battlefield goods during the first 10 months of 2023. According to a new US-Ukrainian study, Russia has successfully exploited loopholes in the sanctions regime, enabling it to obtain vital components for its arms industry. Jonathan reiterates his view that Western governments should be doing far more to prevent companies such as Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments, IBM and Dell from supplying Russia. He reveals that the most common way that Russia has been able to circumvent sanctions has been by importing these components via third countries, in particular via Asian supply chains. Despite Russia's success in this area, Ukrainian military intelligence has claimed that international sanctions have had a detrimental impact on Russia's ability to source certain modern weapons parts, such as optics, electronics and microchips. Jonathan points out that even in cases where Russia has been able to acquire these components, it has been forced to pay considerably more for them as a result of having to use intermediaries.

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Russia Announces Start of Production of Drill Air Bombs

🎦 23:40-25:23⏩

Russia has announced that it will begin production of new drill air bombs, although Jonathan points out that these were first unveiled by Russia back in 2016. According to Russian media reports, the bombs have already passed all the necessary tests. The glide bombs are designed to be difficult to detect on radar and can be used to target armoured vehicles, ground radar stations, power plants, control points and anti-aircraft missile systems. However, defence analyst Andrew Perpetua has dismissed the new bombs as "completely pointless", arguing that they offer "no benefits" over existing bombs. He claims that the new bombs have an effective range that is 60% lower than that of comparable bombs already in service with the Russian military. Jonathan shares Perpetua's scepticism, musing that "I wonder why it would even exist." He then refers to claims that the new bombs are designed to carry submunitions, although he counters this by observing that existing Russian bombs can also be fitted with submunitions.

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Western Firms Banned From Selling to Russian Military But $7.3bn of Tech Still Reaches Russia Via Asian Supply Chains

🎦 25:23-25:59⏩

Jonathan reports that, despite a ban on Western companies selling their products to the Russian military, new data shows that some $7.3bn worth of vital technology has been able to reach Russia, primarily through Asian supply chains and intermediaries. This has been described as an "unintended tech lifeline", and serves to highlight the limitations of the existing sanctions regime.

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Sunak Visits Kyiv & Reaffirms UK Support for Ukraine

🎦 25:59-27:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes confirmation that UK military aid to Ukraine will increase to £2.5bn, up from £2.3bn. This was announced during Rishi Sunak's visit to Kyiv. Jonathan believes that the visit sends out a clear message of support for Ukraine, and welcomes Sunak's comments in which he assured Ukrainians that "Britain is with you for as long as it takes". However, he expresses a preference for more robust language from the UK PM, suggesting that it would be more helpful if this message was changed to "Britain is with you until you defeat Russia and get your territory back to 1991." Nevertheless, Jonathan believes that "Britain is certainly moving in the right direction", and praises former UK PM David Cameron, whose recent rhetoric has, in Jonathan's view, "been on point".

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Estonian PM's Attire Sends a Powerful Message of Support

🎦 27:19-28:15⏩

Jonathan praises Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, who has frequently been pictured wearing the colours of the Ukrainian flag. He draws parallels with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, whose children dressed up as Zelensky and wore yellow and blue for Halloween, observing that "it's these little things that say so much... that's so important to me that I'm going to get my kids to dress up on Halloween to represent my feelings on Ukraine... now here she is representing her feelings - it's really strong I would say rhetoric but it's really strong messaging from Kallas there".

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Republicans Propose "Ukraine Victory Plan"

🎦 28:15-31:27⏩

Jonathan expresses his disappointment at reports that the Republican Party has drawn up a "Ukraine Victory Plan". Initial reports had suggested that the plan had the backing of the entire Republican Party, and that it included provisions for the rapid supply of critical weapons systems to Ukraine, including ATACMs (Army Tactical Missile System) with a 300km range, F-16 fighter jets, cluster munitions, artillery, air defence systems and armoured vehicles. In addition, the plan also called for strengthened sanctions against Putin's regime and for $300bn of frozen Russian assets to be transferred to Ukraine. However, Jonathan believes that this is a case of wishful thinking on the part of those commentators who had interpreted comments made by certain Republicans as being representative of the party as a whole. He stresses that this is simply not the case, observing that "there are individual Republicans who are strong supporters of Ukraine and that's what's happening here I think... But there is no proposal by the Republican Party or any of its leaders in Congress to do any such thing." In support of this view, he quotes one viewer, who describes the reports as "nonsense". Jonathan then highlights the pivotal role played by Republican politician Mike Johnson, who, as Speaker of the House, "controls the purse strings" and who has been instrumental in blocking aid. He then cites the thoughts of a Democrat viewer, who argues that it's important to acknowledge the efforts of those Republicans who do support Ukraine: "ranking members of the powerful committee supporting a cause and advocating for ukrainian victory is important though... things like the magnitsky act... passed or have nearly been held up because of the of the support or obstruction from ranking members of a congressional committee... in my opinion we as democrats shouldn't resist or downplay because it wasn't us as democrats that took the initiative to draft a comprehensive plan that is aimed at Ukrainian victory". In other words, this should be viewed as a positive development that is to be welcomed, even if the plan does not have widespread support. Jonathan then tempers his earlier criticism by stating that "here I think is a little more meat on the bone for that". He then quotes from an article that appeared in the Ukrainian media: "republicans have developed a plan for the victory of ukraine... three committees of the u.s house of representatives led by republicans have released a document criticizing the administration of president joe biden for insufficient aid to ukraine and demanding to divide decisive action from him... 'russia and an alliance consisting of china iran and its proxies such as hamas and hezbollah and north korea are working together to undermine american interests around the world their goal is to weaken the u.s economy break up key alliances and establish a new world order of totalitarianism not since world war ii has the united states faced a more dangerous set of adversaries' the document says..." Jonathan welcomes this statement, remarking that "this is a kind of republicanism i can get behind" and praises "their desire to get clarity on how to achieve success for the americans in supporting Ukraine in the conflict there". He argues that the emerging axis between Russia, Iran, China and North Korea, along with their respective proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis), needs to be confronted head-on, and that a failure to do so would represent a strategic mis-step of the highest order.

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Latvia Nationalises Russian-Owned Property

🎦 31:27-32:45⏩

Latvia has passed a law that will allow the government to nationalise all property belonging to the Moscow government, including "Moscow House" in Riga, which has been funded by the Moscow mayor's office. The Latvian government argues that Moscow House has been used as a vehicle for spreading Russian propaganda. Jonathan welcomes the decision, arguing that it represents part of a wider strategy to counter what the Latvian authorities have described as "threats to Latvia's democratic order", and which encompasses "aggressive actions, propaganda and pro-Kremlin interpretations of history".

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Azerbaijan & Armenia Critical of Russia's Role in Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

🎦 32:45-34:12⏩

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has accused Russia of failing to live up to its responsibilities as a peacekeeper in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Jonathan believes that this public criticism of Russia by a country that was previously within the Soviet sphere of influence is symptomatic of the damage that Russia has inflicted upon itself as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. He suggests that Russia's waning influence could encourage other countries in the region, such as Georgia, to be more vocal in their criticisms. Jonathan argues that "this is super important and Russia has shot itself in the foot by invading Ukraine because they're losing influence around their borders in the Caucasus in Eurasia".

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Slovakia: Demonstrations Against "Putin Puppet" Fico

🎦 34:12-35:07⏩

There have been large-scale demonstrations in Slovakia against Robert Fico, who is seen by many as a "Putin puppet". Jonathan believes that the rise of pro-Putin sentiment in countries such as Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia represents "a massive challenge for the EU... It's a massive challenge for the West and for Ukraine." He expresses a hope that these demonstrations will force Fico to reconsider his pro-Kremlin stance.

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Poland-Ukraine Border Dispute

🎦 35:07-35:46⏩

Polish transport companies are planning to stage a series of protests along the Polish-Ukrainian border. The protests, which are expected to last for a month, starting on 15 January, will see the blockade of the Medica-Szegini checkpoint, which has become a major transit route for goods travelling between the two countries.

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Russia Condemns US Air Strikes in Yemen

🎦 35:46-36:14⏩

In a statement that Jonathan describes as "possibly the biggest example of hypocrisy we've seen in a long time", Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has condemned recent US air strikes in Yemen, describing them as illegal and accusing the US of escalating tensions in the region.

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Wrap Up

🎦 36:14-37:07⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He apologises for the slightly chaotic nature of today's video, explaining that "my head is full of so much stuff". He reveals that he intends to have a well-earned cup of tea and play the board game "Final Girl" in an attempt to relax after an eventful day before returning to work.

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