Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Why can't any other national leader like Olaf Scholz, like Joe Biden, like Keir Starmer say something as clearly as that, which is absolutely brilliant? Like, yeah, okay, we've got to work within humanitarian rules, international rules, but actually yeah they should be able to strike, you know, they're defending themselves they've got an obligation to do that, we're going to help them..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. He notes that he has already uploaded a Geopolitics video earlier today, which was a leftover from yesterday. This video is the first of two parts and will cover Hits and Losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:19-01:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's daily report on Russian losses. He notes that reported personnel losses (1030) are at the lower end of what has been reported each day since the start of the Kharkiv offensive. Other notable figures include the destruction of 9 Russian tanks, 23 armoured personnel vehicles, 48 artillery systems and 84 vehicles and fuel tanks.
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Oryx/Warspotting - Daily Losses
🎦 01:31-05:09⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually confirmed losses from Oryx and Warspotting. He notes that the ratio of visually confirmed losses is 1.5:1 in favour of Russia (i.e. for every 1.5 Russian vehicles destroyed, 1 Ukrainian vehicle has been destroyed). This does not include civilian vehicles, ATVs and trucks. Ukrainian losses include 3 Howitzers, 5 tanks and 3 IFVs. Jonathan discusses the merits of using better equipment, like the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, noting that they offer significant advantages but there may be reluctance to deploy them for fear of losing them and the negative impact this would have from a PR perspective. He moves on to discuss Russian losses, highlighting the loss of an air defence system, howitzers, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, trucks, desert cross buggies and civilian vehicles. Jonathan wonders aloud whether the high number of destroyed civilian vehicles is an indication that Russia is running out of military equipment.
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Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 05:09-06:20⏩
A comment from 'Trenton Anko' prompts Jonathan to discuss Russian personnel losses. 'Trenton Anko' notes that a Russian Infantry regiment typically consists of 1,200 men and asks what the casualty rate would be for a regiment after 7 days of fighting. Jonathan cites Chris O'wickey who estimates that Russia has been losing a battalion a day (1,200 men) since the start of the Kharkiv offensive.
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Chris O'wickey Thread - Russia's Military Problems
🎦 06:20-13:16⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Chris O'wickey, which focuses on commentary from Russian ultra-nationalist journalist and commentator on Russian military affairs Vladislav Shurigan. Shurigan, in a lengthy complaint on his Telegram channel, states that Russia's war effort in Ukraine is still hampered by:
- Lying commanders
- Corrupt bureaucrats
- An ineffective military-industrial complex
- A lack of defensive defenses against drones
- Chronic shortages of man and equipment
Shurigan states that Russian officials are apathetic and indifferent to the plight of the ordinary man on the street, who are hoping that Donald Trump will win the US election and order an end to the war. Shurigan believes that the Russian Military's culture of lying about events on the battlefield, known as 'Vranyo', is well known and has been the cause of many failures on the battlefield. He highlights that Russian regiments are ground down in a week in senseless head-on assaults because there is no electronic warfare, no drones and ammunition is limited. Shurigan also draws attention to the "dead souls" phenomenon in the Russian military, whereby a proportion of men listed on the roster do not actually exist. Some have paid their way out, whilst others have been killed or are missing. Shurigan criticises the Russian Military industrial complex for its failure to produce sufficient quantities of effective drones. Instead, it seems to have focused on expensive and unwanted hardware. He laments the lack of defences against Ukrainian long-range drones, which have been able to wreak havoc on Russian infrastructure. He questions why Russia is not deploying simple solutions such as barrage balloons, why the Russian Airforce has not been more effective at neutralising the drone threat and the lack of protection at Russian airbases, which has allowed Ukraine to destroy aircraft on the ground. Jonathan expresses his own surprise that very little footage has been released which shows the Russian Airforce intercepting Ukrainian drones. Shurigan believes that the Russian war effort is heavily reliant on volunteers who are having to purchase equipment using their own money. This includes a wide range of equipment from drones, to vehicles and even basic equipment such as camouflage nets and first aid kits. He also criticises the quality of equipment being produced by the Military Industrial complex. In his concluding remarks, Shurigan states that Russia is at a "very dangerous point in the war" and that it will either mobilize and crush the enemy or fall into a "bottomless swamp of truce" due to its numerous problems. Jonathan, after thanking 'Ivan' for the cup of tea, concurs with Shurigan's assessment.
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Russian Soldiers Revolt
🎦 13:16-13:29⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian soldiers in Vovchansk are turning against their commanders. This is due to high casualties, equipment shortages, the deployment of wounded soldiers which is leading to refusals to fight and near revolts.
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Slovak Foreign Fighter POW Interview
🎦 13:29-14:02⏩
Jonathan discusses the case of a Slovak foreign fighter, Yaroslav Galichik, who claims to be the only survivor from his group. He surrendered to Ukrainian forces after hearing them speak Ukrainian. Jonathan provides a link to a 4 1/2 minute interview with Galichik.
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Ukraine's Need to Strike Russian Territory
🎦 14:02-16:01⏩
Jonathan cautions against being too positive about the situation in Ukraine, reminding viewers that Ukraine is facing very challenging conditions, especially on the Eastern front. He expresses frustration with the United States for continuing to prevent Ukraine from using Western supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. He notes that the UK's Intelligence report today stated that Russia is taking unsustainable losses, and that Russia likely lost 70,000 personnel in May and June this year. The report notes that the uptick in Russian losses coincides with the start of the Kharkiv offensive but also that Ukraine's effective defence and Russia's lack of training has prevented them from exploiting any tactical successes. The report concludes that Russia will likely continue to sustain casualties in excess of 1,000 a day over the next two months. Jonathan notes that the hot weather is also presenting problems for both sides.
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Distance Strikes - 11 July 2024
🎦 16:01-17:40⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest distance strikes, reporting that Ukraine shot down 5 out of 5 Kh-101 missiles aimed at the airbase in Starokostiantyniv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. He also reports that 11 out of 19 Shahed drones were also destroyed, although it is possible that the other 8 were also destroyed by electronic warfare. Jonathan reports that there were explosions reported near the airport in Mariupol and that air raid sirens were activated in occupied Sevastopol.
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Russian Bombing of Grain Storage Facility
🎦 17:40-17:57⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has bombed a grain storage facility in Kharkiv Oblast.
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NATO's Stance on Ukraine Striking Russian Territory
🎦 17:57-21:14⏩
Jonathan discusses NATO's position on permitting Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is reported to have said that Ukraine has the right to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, and that NATO allies have reduced restrictions on the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not support Ukraine attacking targets in Russia. Jonathan expresses his frustration with the US's stance on this issue. The US has not changed its position regarding long-range strikes on Russian territory. He cites White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who recently stated that the US position is "common sense" and gives the example of cross border shelling of Kharkiv Oblast from Russia. He goes on to say that the US has not authorised the use of ATACMS for deep strikes into Russia. Jonathan then discusses President Zelensky's recent comments about a meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Zelensky thanked the UK for its military assistance and announced that the UK had given permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory. However, the UK's Ministry of Defence has since denied this. Jonathan speculates as to why Zelensky's comments differed from the MOD statement. He believes that it is unlikely that Zelensky misinterpreted what was said, and that it is more likely that the US intervened, reminding the UK that they are not in charge, and that NATO needs to present a united front.
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Ukraine Developing Long Range Missiles?
🎦 21:14-23:45⏩
Jonathan speculates that Ukraine may already be working on its own long range missiles, citing this as the most likely explanation for the differing positions of Zelensky and the UK MOD. Jonathan believes that it would be in Ukraine's best interests to develop its own indigenous long-range strike capability. He expresses his hope that Ukraine is close to developing such a capability, noting that they have already successfully developed the Neptune anti-ship missile. He cites a MAX-24 report that the US Airforce is working on a new class of air-launched precision munitions with a range of 460km. However, Jonathan is sceptical that Ukraine would be permitted to use these against targets inside Russia. He questions whether the US is involved in helping Ukraine to develop these missiles itself. Moving on to the topic of aircraft, Jonathan cites a report from MAX-24 which states that Western countries which have supplied F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine are in negotiations about their possible use in strikes on Russian territory. The Dutch Prime Minister is said to have promised Zelensky that the Netherlands would not impose any restrictions on the use of F-16s supplied by them. However, Jonathan believes that this is another example of the US dictating policy and that they would ultimately prevent Ukraine from using F-16s to strike targets in Russia.
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Interview with Danish Defence Minister
🎦 23:45-27:10⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview given by the Danish Defence Minister. The interviewer asks whether Denmark would be willing to supply more than the 28 F-16s already promised to Ukraine, to which the Defence Minister replies that he hopes so and that more donations are needed because of the size of the Russian Airforce. The interviewer then asks the Defence Minister to clarify Denmark's position regarding the use of F-16s on Russian Territory. The Defence Minister states that he cannot give a simple answer to that question and that it depends on the circumstances, but confirms that it is possible to attack targets outside of Ukraine. Jonathan expresses his admiration for the Danish Defence Minister's clear and unambiguous answers. He contrasts her responses with those given by John Kirby and Jake Sullivan, who always resort to 'anti-escalation' answers.
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Ukraine Counteroffensive in 2024?
🎦 27:10-28:55⏩
Jonathan discusses a New York Times article, which states that Ukraine is not ready for a counter-attack in 2024 due to the slow delivery of Western weapons. He notes that it was always going to be the case that the delivery of equipment pledged at the recent NATO summit would take time (weeks if not months). He uses the example of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent pledge to expedite the delivery of equipment promised by the UK, noting that even with this, it will still take three months. Jonathan notes that a lot of the equipment being pledged needs to be overhauled before it can be sent to Ukraine to ensure it is fit for purpose.
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Russian GPS Jamming in Finland
🎦 28:55-29:29⏩
Jonathan reports that GPS jamming in Finland is likely part of Russia's hybrid campaign against NATO. He cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) who stated that recent cases of GPS blocking in and near Finland are part of Russia's intensifying hybrid campaign. He believes that Russia is only harming itself with this kind of activity because it gives NATO more justification to react robustly.
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Russian Pilot Leaks Data to Ukraine
🎦 29:29-30:40⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian pilot has leaked personnel data to Ukraine. He cites a report in the Kyiv Independent, which claims that the pilot passed on information to Ukrainian military intelligence, which helped to identify 30 commanders of the Russian Heavy Bomber Aviation Division. The report states that the pilot decided to leak the information after being angered by the attack on the Children's hospital.
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Russian Woman Jailed for Donating to Ukraine
🎦 30:40-31:05⏩
Jonathan reports that a 21 year old woman from Tomsk, Tatyana Lalatina, has been jailed for treason in Russia after donating $30 to Ukraine. She was sentenced to 9 years in prison.
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Heatwave in Ukraine
🎦 31:05-32:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the heatwave currently affecting Ukraine, noting that temperatures have reached 40 degrees Celsius. He describes how Russian soldiers are struggling to cope with the heat and are complaining about their unsuitable uniforms. He cites a Russian milblogger 'Volt8', who describes the challenges faced by Russian soldiers fighting in the heat, including:
- Increased consumption of water
- Hygiene and prevention of infectious diseases such as typhus and cholera
- Timely evacuation of the bodies of the dead
- Ventilation of premises
- Overheating of electrical generators
- Car engines overheating
- Burns from the sun and hot metal.
The milblogger goes on to say that the all-season field uniform is completely unsuitable and that soldiers should be allowed to wear more practical clothing, such as shorts and t-shirts. He states that wearing a panama hat, instead of a regulation cap, should be legalised.
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Wrap up
🎦 32:45-32:58⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe and share. He thanks his Patreon supporters: Dave Davis, Mark and Olena for their generosity.
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