US Politics Election Extra: Harris - Trump Showdown Update

"You know, one of the things that I've observed is, sometimes Donald Trump says the quiet part out loud, and we have to believe him. And I think this is one of those occasions that we got some real insight into what his priorities are."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-01:08⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video and introduces the topic of the day, which is the latest information on the Harris-Trump showdown for the US elections. He mentions that both sides have had time to react to Joe Biden stepping aside and to get their adverts ready. He notes that this is a first proper attack ad from the Republicans.

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Harris - Trump attack ad analysis

🎦 01:08-04:11⏩

Jonathan discusses the first proper Harris attack ad from the Republicans, focusing on the predicted topic of immigration. He argues that the ad's aim is not to preach to the converted, but rather to appeal to independent and swing voters. He expresses his opinion that the ad is incredibly dubious, but acknowledges that perception matters more than truth in politics. Jonathan concludes that the ad is a classic attack ad that uses fear and emotion to appeal to voters. He notes that the ad is purely negative and doesn't present a positive picture of what the Republicans can do for the US.

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Harris attack ad analysis - contrast

🎦 04:11-05:59⏩

Jonathan continues his analysis of the Harris attack ad, arguing that it would be more effective if it included a positive comparison with what Trump would do. He suggests that a negative/positive contrast would be more persuasive to swing voters. He mentions statistics that support this claim and notes that the Democrats need to get their adverts out quickly to start defining Harris before the opposition does. He cites The New York Times article on this subject. He then moves onto an analysis of Harris's own new ad.

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Harris new ad analysis - "Fearless"

🎦 05:59-09:46⏩

Jonathan discusses Harris's new ad, her first since becoming the party's de facto nominee, which labels her as "fearless". He contrasts this with the negative tone of the Republican attack ad, noting that Harris's ad is positive and highlights her accomplishments in previous roles. He suggests that this positive contrast might be more effective in appealing to voters. He also discusses the specific positive messages highlighted in the ad, such as Harris's actions in putting murderers and abusers behind bars, going after big banks, and taking on Big Pharma.

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Arizona Republican Mayor endorses Harris

🎦 09:46-13:30⏩

Jonathan discusses the news that the Republican mayor of Mesa, Arizona, the third-largest city in the state, has endorsed Kamala Harris for president. He highlights the mayor's reasoning, which includes his concerns about the danger to democracy that Trump presents and his belief that Trump is likely to challenge the election results if he loses. He also mentions the mayor's statement that the Republican Party, under Trump's leadership, has moved away from focusing on fundamental freedoms. He concludes by quoting the mayor's call on other Arizona Republicans to choose country over party and vote against Donald Trump. He then moves onto a discussion of a recent interview with Trump on Fox News.

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Trump's recent interviews and concerns about democracy

🎦 13:30-17:01⏩

Jonathan analyses Trump's recent interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News, highlighting the lack of challenging questioning from Ingraham and describing it as a "love-in". He discusses Trump's comments at a rally where he said that Christians only need to vote once and then they won't need to vote again. He expresses his concern about the implications of these comments and the potential danger they pose to democracy. He then shares the Arizona mayor's opinion that Trump is likely to challenge the legitimacy of any election results if he loses and highlights the mayor's fear that this may be the last free and fair election in his lifetime.

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Fred Trump III endorses Harris

🎦 17:01-20:12⏩

Jonathan discusses the news that Fred Trump III, Donald Trump's nephew, has endorsed Kamala Harris for president. He quotes Trump III's statement that he believes in policy over politics and that Harris's policies are what he gets behind. He then moves onto a discussion of Trump III's book, which includes claims of Trump's use of racial slurs and other concerning behaviors. He notes the possibility of an "October surprise" regarding recordings of Trump making racist remarks. Jonathan concludes this topic by discussing Trump III's advocacy for the disabled and highlighting his disturbing account of a conversation with his uncle where Trump expressed callous indifference to the well-being of individuals with disabilities. He emphasizes the contrast between Trump III's advocacy for the disabled and his uncle's appalling behavior.

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Harris's potential running mate

🎦 20:12-23:27⏩

Jonathan discusses the latest news on Harris's potential running mate, noting that there are only three people left in the running: Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly, and Tim Walz. He highlights the Republican mayor of Mesa, Arizona's endorsement of Mark Kelly, noting that the mayor believes Kelly would be a strong VP pick. Jonathan analyses the potential advantages of Kelly being Harris's running mate, particularly his strength on immigration and his ability to counter Republican attacks on Harris's border record. He also mentions Kelly's strong support for Ukraine.

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Tim Waltz's potential candidacy

🎦 23:27-25:23⏩

Jonathan discusses Tim Waltz's potential candidacy as Harris's VP pick. He admits his bias towards Waltz, expressing his opinion that he's a "decent human being" who would be a good choice for VP. He shares a light-hearted anecdote about Waltz's daughter tricking him into going on a rollercoaster at the fairgrounds. Jonathan concludes by stating that he slightly favours Mark Kelly for the VP position.

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Harris-Trump election: current polls and possible challenges

🎦 25:23-26:11⏩

Jonathan discusses the latest polls for the Harris-Trump election, noting that Mark Kelly is consistently polling higher than Tim Waltz. He suggests that the race appears to be down to Kelly and Josh Shapiro, with Waltz a bit further down. He then moves onto a discussion of the issue of techno-fascism and the influence of tech billionaires in the election. He highlights the role of tech billionaires in supporting Republican candidates and their desire for a deregulated tech industry.

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Election denialism and the dangers to US democracy

🎦 26:11-28:42⏩

Jonathan discusses the growing issue of election denialism in the US, highlighting the appointment of election denialists to key positions in swing states. He cites a Rolling Stone article that profiles 70 election denialists who have been placed in positions to influence the certification of election results. He warns of the potential for mass refusals to certify the election in November and explains how this could disrupt the outcome of the election. He concludes by stating that Trump is now repeatedly saying that the vote won't matter and that he doesn't even want people to vote.

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The electoral college system and its bias towards Republicans

🎦 28:42-35:01⏩

Jonathan discusses the electoral college system in the US, explaining how it works and highlighting its bias towards rural states, which tend to vote Republican. He argues that the system disproportionately benefits Republican candidates, citing the correlation between the number of electoral college votes and the number of congressional districts in each state. He explains that this skew has its roots in slavery, with southern states historically having lower white male populations but many slaves. He concludes by noting that the system is grossly unfair and gives undue advantage to rural states.

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Supreme Court reform and the influence of dark money

🎦 35:01-38:28⏩

Jonathan discusses the issue of Supreme Court reform, noting Joe Biden's call for reform and the Republican Speaker of the House's dismissal of it as "dead on arrival". He expresses his support for Biden's proposal and then discusses the influence of right-wing donor Leonard Leo in shaping the court's ideological direction. Jonathan highlights Leo's significant role in moving the court to the right and his efforts to make it more friendly to conservative causes. He also mentions Leo's involvement in the Federalist Society, which has played a key role in transforming the US court system.

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Upcoming presidential debate and Trump's possible absence

🎦 38:28-40:35⏩

Jonathan reports that VP Kamala Harris has confirmed she will be showing up to the planned presidential debate on September 10th, regardless of whether Trump attends. He believes this is a strong move by the Harris campaign, as it will portray Trump as a coward if he doesn't show up. He suggests that Harris could use the opportunity to present her case without Trump being there and potentially win some easy points. However, he also acknowledges the risk that Trump could attend the debate and perform well.

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Russian interference in the US election

🎦 40:35-42:37⏩

Jonathan discusses the issue of foreign interference in the US election, highlighting Russia's significant role in spreading disinformation. He notes that Russian interference is a serious concern, particularly through the use of social media accounts. He also mentions a comment from a viewer who claims that 50% of MAGA accounts on Twitter are linked to IP addresses outside the US. He expresses skepticism about the provenance of this data but acknowledges that it highlights the potential for foreign influence. Jonathan concludes by mentioning Gavin Newsom's proposal for a bill to make it illegal to manipulate voices in political advertisements.

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Key issues in the election

🎦 42:37-45:20⏩

Jonathan discusses the key issues that will likely be at the forefront of the US election campaign. He suggests that abortion, immigration, and healthcare will be dominant topics, with foreign policy taking a back seat. He then moves onto a discussion of the Democrats' focus on their successes in areas like infrastructure, the CHIPS Act, and healthcare. He also shares his opinion that the recent abortion ban in Iowa will likely motivate women to vote for the Democrats.

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John Bolton and the Doha Agreement

🎦 45:20-46:46⏩

Jonathan discusses a recent exchange on Newsmax between John Bolton and Eric Bolling concerning the withdrawal from Afghanistan. He argues that much of the blame for the Afghan withdrawal can be attributed to the Doha Agreement, which was negotiated by the Trump administration. He suggests that the Doha Agreement left Biden with limited options and that Bolling's attempts to blame the withdrawal solely on Biden are disingenuous. He concludes by criticizing Bolling for interrupting Bolton and refusing to acknowledge the role of the Doha Agreement in the Afghan situation.

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Kamala Harris's election strategy

🎦 46:46-48:09⏩

Jonathan discusses Kamala Harris's election strategy, highlighting her focus on mobilizing certain demographics, including women, black and brown people, and young people. He suggests that Harris will aim to get these groups motivated, registered, and out to vote. He then introduces a comment from a viewer who shares their perspective on the election and the factors that are likely to influence voters.

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Jonathan's prediction: Harris to win the election

🎦 48:09-51:58⏩

Jonathan confidently predicts that Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election. He bases his prediction on his 40 years of experience studying politics and elections, his analysis of data, polls, and social media trends. He highlights the unprecedented levels of voter enthusiasm among certain demographics, including older voters, suburban women, and people in traditionally red states, who have all expressed their desire for change. He believes that the Republican Party's recent attacks on Harris have backfired and will likely motivate even more people to vote for her.

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The challenge of maintaining voter enthusiasm

🎦 51:58-52:10⏩

Jonathan acknowledges that the Democrats face the challenge of maintaining voter enthusiasm over the remaining 100 days of the campaign. He notes that the Democrats have a greater chance of winning the longer the campaign goes on, but also warns that the Republicans could exploit any decline in enthusiasm. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of the Democrats maintaining the current level of voter mobilization.

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Black pastor's powerful sermon on Kamala Harris

🎦 52:10-55:25⏩

Jonathan shares a clip of a black pastor delivering a powerful sermon about Kamala Harris becoming the presidential nominee. He highlights the pastor's passionate response to Republican attacks on Harris, emphasizing the pastor's refusal to allow white men to speak disrespectfully about a black woman. He notes the pastor's call to action for black people to stand up against such attacks and his belief that any attempt to silence or marginalize Harris will backfire. Jonathan concludes this topic by highlighting the pastor's view that Harris represents a much wider demographic than just black people, including the Southeast Asian community.

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Republican voter registration efforts and Twitter censorship

🎦 55:25-57:09⏩

Jonathan discusses the Republican Party's voter registration efforts, noting the success of groups like "Black Women for Kamala", "Black Men for Kamala", and "White Women for Kamala". He then highlights the recent suspension of the "White Dudes for Kamala Harris" account on Twitter after it raised over $4 million for the Harris campaign. He suggests that this censorship is a form of election interference and expresses confidence that the account will bounce back. He concludes this topic by noting that white Democrats are likely to be very enthusiastic about Harris.

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Voter enthusiasm and polling trends

🎦 57:09-01:00⏩
:11
Jonathan discusses the latest polling data for the Harris-Trump election, highlighting the significant increase in voter enthusiasm among Democrats. He notes that the number of Democrats who are enthusiastic about voting for Harris has increased from 62% in February to 88% in the latest polls. He also notes that while Republican enthusiasm for Trump remains high, Harris now has a six-point advantage in voter enthusiasm. He concludes this topic by discussing the latest polls in key battleground states, highlighting Harris's strong performance in these states.

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Trump's lack of electoral momentum

🎦 01:00:11-01:01⏩
:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the lack of electoral momentum for Trump. He notes that he hasn't received any significant bump in the polls since his VP pick, the convention, or even the assassination. He argues that voters are already familiar with Trump and have made their judgment about him. He believes that Trump's ceiling on popularity is 46% and that he will need to change his approach to win the election. He emphasizes Trump's tendency to appeal only to his existing base and his lack of outreach to swing voters.

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Wrap up

🎦 01:01:57-01:03⏩
:11⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by reiterating his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the election. He suggests that the Democrats' ability to outspend the Republicans on advertising, combined with their use of more effective techniques such as contrast rather than just attack, could further shift the polls in Harris's favor. He encourages viewers to let him know if they find the video content useful and interesting. He expresses gratitude for their support and promises to speak to them soon.

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