Ukraine Conflict (20231025): Full Frontline Update

"The Russians appear to be in a strategy of taking kilometers with huge losses and that not being a huge concern for them as long as they take those kilometers."

Hello Team!

Jonathan apologizes for the late update, as he's had a busy day. He mentions taking his kid to football and rugby training. He's having a stormtrooper beer while doing the mapping update. If viewers are unsure what the lines on the map mean, he advises pausing the video to check.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern Sector (Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna)

• There are some Ukrainian gains according to Andrew Perpetua's mapping near Orlyansky, north of Ivanovka and Yahidne.
• Jonathan gives a big thanks to JR for helping with the mapping the last two days.
• The Russians have made advances around Ivanovka but have lost a lot of troops in the process.
• Jonathan discusses the Russian strategy of being willing to lose many troops to take kilometers of land, in contrast to Ukraine valuing minimizing losses more. He explores the philosophical and practical aspects of these differing approaches.

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Bakhmut Area

• The situation is mixed, with Russians making some gains to the north of Bakhmut but Ukrainians possibly making larger gains to the south than previously thought.
• To the north, Russians have pushed Ukrainians back around Rosali and near Kramovet.
• To the south, Ukrainians have advanced east from Andriivka towards Ozarianivka. Some Russian sources express concern this push is bigger than reported.

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Avdiivka Area

• The Russians are putting immense pressure on Avdiivka, making costly advances from the north and northwest.
• They have likely taken control of the slag heap north of the city, an important vantage point.
• Ukraine is in a precarious position - if Russia advances just 2-3km more, they can cut off a key Ukrainian supply road.
• Russia is willing to incur huge troop losses to incrementally take land around the city. Ukraine has inflicted massive casualties but is struggling to hold on.
• Avdiivka is strategically and politically important for both sides. It's better fortified and more operationally valuable than Bakhmut was.

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Southern Front (Velyka Novosilka, Robotyne)

• Some minor Ukrainian gains north of Priyutne, but also reports of small Russian advances in the same area. The situation is unclear.
• Not much change around Robotyne. Ukraine is increasing attacks towards Kopani and Novopokrovka but no confirmed advances.

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Kherson/Dnipro River

• No map changes but reports of increased Ukrainian activity on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River.
• Claims Ukrainians have advanced to Pidstepne village and maintain positions in Krynky and near the damaged Antonivsky bridges.
• Ukraine may be trying to cut the road running parallel to the river to disrupt Russian logistics.
• Fog is allowing Ukraine to move small groups across the river in boats at various points.

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Wrap Up

In summary, the Russian counter-offensive continues to grind on while the Ukrainian one has largely stalled, especially in the south. The Ukrainians are focusing on incremental gains around Bakhmut and Kherson while desperately trying to hold on in Avdiivka. There are rumors of Ukrainian forces redeploying from Kreminna to Avdiivka given the severity of the situation there. Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and apologizes again for the late update.

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