Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"This none of none of this makes any sense that it would these guys would be doing this on the behest of the Ukrainians so my my my first option is that this is a Russian false flag operation. I think that's overwhelmingly the evidence to me."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is back on ATP Geopolitics after a week's suspension on his other channel. He reminds viewers to check sources, including his own information which may not always be 100% accurate.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 765 liquidated Russian personnel, up 50 from the previous day
- 8 tanks, 15 APCs destroyed
- 4 artillery systems and 4 MLRS lost, which will hurt Russia
- 1 aircraft (Su-25) and 1 helicopter (Mi-24) shot down, a significant loss due to the highly trained pilots
- 3 drones, 17 vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed
- Over 130 pieces of equipment lost in the battle of Vuhledar according to Oryx, including 57 tanks and 69 infantry fighting vehicles
Attacks and Explosions
- Explosion at Kolomna near Moscow, previously a Ukrainian drone was shot down in the area
- Russia attacked Druzhkivka near Kramatorsk with S-300 missiles
- Ships in the Black Sea could signal a potential Russian missile attack
The Bryansk Incident
Jonathan analyzes the bizarre incident in the Bryansk region on the Russia-Ukraine border involving the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC). Key points:
- The RVC, led by far-right Russian Denis Nikitin, claimed responsibility for the attack but denied civilian casualties
- Ukraine called it a "deliberate provocation" by Russia
- Evidence suggests it was likely a Russian false flag operation:
- The attackers were poorly equipped with brand new gear
- Excessive yellow armbands would be unnecessary for a clandestine mission
- Openly showing faces is unusual compared to Ukrainian forces who conceal their identities
- Staged photos/videos of dead civilians in cars
- Benefits Russian narrative more than Ukrainian
- Other less likely possibilities are the RVC acting independently or Ukraine being behind it, which would be very stupid and unhelpful to their cause
Military Aid
- US announced $400 million aid package of ammunition
- Germany increased their commitment of Leopard 2A6 tanks to 18, Gepard anti-aircraft systems, and Bergepanzer 3 armoured vehicles
- Ukraine expects to receive fighter jets from the West according to Defence Minister Reznikov
Geopolitics
- Zelensky spoke with Brazil's President Lula thanking him for supporting the UN resolution demanding Russia's withdrawal, signaling Brazil may be distancing itself from full BRICS alignment
- Russia questioned Serbia about reports of Serbian ammunition being provided to Ukraine, calling it an "extremely important topic for bilateral relations"
Bakhmut
There are signs Ukraine may be starting to withdraw from Bakhmut:
- A Ukrainian drone unit was urgently withdrawn to defend from outside the city
- The head of Wagner PMC claims they have nearly surrounded Bakhmut with only one road left
- If Russia takes Bakhmut it will be a PR victory but a strategically insignificant one given the immense time and cost
Wrap up
Jonathan invites viewers to share further evidence about the Bryansk incident. He appreciates everyone's support.
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