Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you say Putin stop, Putin won't stop. If you say Putin will stop arming and helping Ukraine and will forbid it to strike, Ukraine is now unarmed and not a threat to Russia, Putin won't stop. Ukraine has never been a threat. My country is a peaceful country that is forced to defend the lives of our people, fight for freedom of life."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan introduces the video and mentions the ongoing fundraiser for "Christmas trucks under the Christmas tree" for Ukraine. He will be doing a live stream at 2:30 PM UK time with Jonathan Fink and Rick the Ukrainian to discuss Ukraine. The fundraiser is going well, with almost 70% of the target reached. Jonathan also mentions that they may plan a convoy to deliver the trucks to Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-00:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting 1,390 personnel losses, five tanks (below average), 31 armoured personnel vehicles (above average), and six artillery systems (low). The link to the caveats for the general staff figures is in the description.
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Artillery Losses
🎦 00:31-00:49⏩
Jonathan analyses the artillery losses using Dell's stats, highlighting that the past week has seen very low numbers (6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 12) compared to previous highs of 60. He questions whether this is due to weather, a lack of Ukrainian drones, or Russians running low on artillery.
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Vehicle Losses in the Kurst Area
🎦 00:50-01:18⏩,03:30-05:42⏩
Jonathan refers to a source named Chris Forscher, fighting in the Kursk area, who reports that nine BMD-2 and 4Ms attacked, with only two retreating. Forscher's unit stopped two BMD-2s and one BMD-4M with mines, which were then destroyed by FPV drones. He notes that approximately 10-15% of armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) are destroyed by FPV drones during movement, contrary to the perception that FPVs are the primary cause. ATGMs and mines are also significant factors. For two days, the Russians lost 12 AFVs, four infantry mobility vehicles, and one IMR2 (possibly a recovery vehicle). Jonathan credits Andrew Perpetua for his lost lists.
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Warehouse Fire in Russia
🎦 01:18-01:22⏩,05:43-07:10⏩
A large warehouse fire occurred in Novosibirsk, Russia, with conflicting reports about its contents. Some sources claim it contained plastic products, while others suggest it was an army supply warehouse or a facility supporting strategically important enterprises. The fire spread to 7,000 square metres, and the roof partially collapsed. It is unclear if the fire was caused by a drone strike or was accidental. Another fire was also reported in Siberia at a warehouse of building materials and flammable substances.
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Overnight Missile and Drone Attack on Ukraine
🎦 07:11-16:47⏩
Jonathan discusses a massive overnight attack on Ukraine, with 94 missiles and almost 200 drones launched. 81 missiles and 185 drones were shot down, marking one of the largest attacks. This follows a period of low drone activity, suggesting stockpiling by Russia. Jonathan criticises the lack of media coverage of the attack. He notes that 105 of the 185 drones were taken down due to electronic warfare. President Zelensky reported that 81 missiles were intercepted, with 11 by F-16s. The attack targeted energy infrastructure across various regions, including Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, and Chernihiv.
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Aftermath of the Attack on Ukraine
🎦 16:48-18:22⏩
Jonathan describes the aftermath of the attack, with 50% of Ukraine without power. Ukrenergo ordered disconnections of four consumer groups, and D-Tech reported significant damage to thermal power plants. People sheltered in subways, highlighting the devastating impact on civilians. Jonathan emphasises the need for more reporting on these attacks and their consequences.
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Taganrog Airbase Strike
🎦 18:23-21:03⏩
Jonathan discusses a previous strike on the Taganrog airbase in Russia, which houses a major military airfield and a repair plant for Il-76 bombers and A-50 AWACS. The base is the only one of its kind in Russia, making it a high-value target. The strike caused significant concern for Russia, and there was talk of revenge, although Jonathan doubts the recent massive attack was a direct response. Jonathan credits Thierry Schmidlin for providing detailed information on the importance of the Taganrog facility.
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Romania's New Drone Policy
🎦 21:04-21:51⏩
The Romanian government approved two draft laws allowing the armed forces to intercept and neutralise drones entering Romania's airspace during peacetime. This is particularly relevant for the Odesa area on the Danube River, where Russian drones have previously entered Romanian airspace.
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Anton Gerashenko on Putin and the War
🎦 21:52-23:11⏩
Jonathan shares a quote from Anton Gerashenko, emphasising that telling Putin to stop will not work and that Ukraine is a peaceful country forced to defend itself. Gerashenko calls for stronger leaders and decisions to prevent chaos, criticising the broken world security architecture and the weakness of those who have not opposed Putin.
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Increased Risk of Nuclear Accident
🎦 23:12-23:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a warning from US and European diplomats about the increased risk of a nuclear accident due to Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid. The warning came during an emergency meeting of the United Nations Atomic Watchdog, as reported by Bloomberg.
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Pokrovsk Coal Mine Closure
🎦 23:43-24:33⏩
Ukraine's largest steelmaker, Meta-Invest, suspended operations at the Pyschani coal plant near Pokrovsk due to a rapid Russian advance. This closure affects Ukraine's ability to produce steel and, consequently, weapons. Jonathan mentions receiving photos of evacuees from Pokrovsk, highlighting the severe impact on civilians.
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Russian Airbase in Syria
🎦 24:34-27:02⏩
Jonathan discusses the continued presence of Russian military assets at the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, Syria. He speculates on the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Syrian rebels, suggesting that Russia may be offering financial incentives, possibly from resources gained in Africa, to maintain their bases in Syria. Jonathan emphasises the strategic importance of these bases for Russia's access to African resources.
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State of the Russian Aviation Industry
🎦 27:03-27:55⏩
Jonathan highlights the challenges faced by the Russian aviation industry due to sanctions, including difficulties in maintaining their aircraft. He mentions an example of an older plane covered in algae, illustrating the dire straits of their air fleet. Russia has only been able to manufacture seven out of 108 planned aircraft, and Western support for maintenance is lacking.
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Wild Horses in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 27:56-28:33⏩
Jonathan describes an unusual event where a herd of wild horses was seen roaming the streets of Zaporizhzhia. It is speculated that they were either spooked by recent bombings or escaped due to damaged fences. He hopes they are rounded up and returned to safety.
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Wrap up
🎦 28:34-28:58⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by reminding viewers about the upcoming live stream at 2:30 PM UK time and thanking Mark and Olena for his Vichy Vanka. He encourages viewers to join the live stream and support Ukraine.
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