Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results and that was what was going on there."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00- 00:47
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Update News video for 27th September 2024. He notes that there is a lot to discuss - lots of geopolitics and military aid and potentially a US political video later. Jonathan has been in touch with Dell (a viewer who provides data analysis) who has told him it's another record breaking day for Russian losses (artillery and drones in particular) potentially due to activity in Vuhledar.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:47-08:07⏩
Jonathan reviews Dell's charts highlighting the record-breaking 7-day rolling average for Russian losses.
- Personnel: 1,384 (the normal daily average has also ticked up to 9.3)
- Tanks: 17.29 (21 tanks lost in a single day - well over double the daily average)
- Armoured Personnel Carriers: 37.71 (48 lost in a single day with a daily average of 18.36)
- Artillery: 66.57 (58 lost - more than triple the daily average).
Jonathan notes that Forbes has reported that Russia may capture Vuhledar but at a huge cost - nearly 6% of total vehicle losses since the start of the war (unclear what timeframe this relates to). This is thought to be due to significant Ukrainian resistance - artillery, mortars, anti-tank guided missiles as well as remote mining which has led to very high Russian losses (and illustrates the definition of insanity - doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result!) Jonathan refers to the time the 155th and 40th Naval Infantry brigades (Russia's crack teams) were deployed to Vuhledar and lost around 100 vehicles in a single engagement, noting that the Ukrainians had the advantage of the high ground. Jonathan thanks Dell for providing the daily analysis. Jonathan notes that there is no update to Andrew Perpetua's loss list (a pro-Ukrainian source) but reminds viewers that Spartan News (on Twitter) provides daily updates on the value of Russian equipment losses (including personnel - which Jonathan notes sounds horrible but there are certain ways you can evaluate this).
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Zoopark Counter Battery Radar Destroyed
🎦 08:07-08:59⏩
Jonathan reports the destruction of a Russian Zoopark 1M counter battery radar system - an expensive piece of kit, destroyed by two Ukrainian GMLRS missiles (one missed, one hit) which will not be easy for the Russians to replace quickly.
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Ukrainian Project 02220 Yaroslavets Tugboat Destroyed
🎦 08:59-09:25⏩
Jonathan reports a confirmed strike by a Russian Lancet loitering munition on the Ukrainian Project 02220 Yaroslavets tugboat. It's unclear what the exact damage was to the tug (which was presumably being used for military purposes), but it appears the bridge was hit.
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Ukrainian Anti-Air FPV Drone vs Russian Reconnaissance Drone
🎦 09:25-11:31⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of a Ukrainian anti-air first person view (FPV) drone (with what appears to be a large battery pack attached) engaging a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone. The Ukrainian drone fails to detonate and becomes attached to the Russian drone, bringing it down. It's unclear if Ukrainian forces will be able to salvage/use the downed Russian drone. Jonathan wonders aloud whether drone-on-drone attacks like this use explosives or rely on kinetic force to bring them down (it's difficult to tell because the feed cuts out upon impact).
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Drone Mothership Releases Drone
🎦 11:31-12:42⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian drone releasing another drone (a mothership releasing a baby drone).
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Fire in Vladimir Region, Russia
🎦 12:42-12:56⏩
A large fire at a building materials market in Vladimir, Russia. The cause of the fire is unknown.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 12:56-17:36⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight drone and missile attacks:
- Ishmael: The Ukrainian port of Ishmael was attacked by Iranian Shahed drones, killing 3 pensioners (the oldest was 89) and injuring 11 (including a child) highlighting the need for more air defence systems. 24 out of 32 drones were shot down, with 1 entering Romanian airspace (it is unknown if it was subsequently shot down or crashed). It appears some of the drones that got through hit civilian infrastructure.
- Krivi Rih: The city of Krivi Rih was hit by Russian missiles, damaging the main council building and injuring 3 people, although some are feared trapped. Jonathan notes that the missiles hit at 9:15 am - a busy time when you would expect people to be in their offices. It is unclear if the missiles that struck Krivi Rih were included in the earlier figures (1 Iskander ballistic missile and 2 Kh-22 cruise missiles).
- Rostov: 7 drones were shot down near Novoshatinsk in Rostov, with debris starting a grass fire near power lines. The attack is thought to have targeted the Novaya Sokolovka neighbourhood (close to an oil refinery). It's unclear whether there was any damage to the refinery or other infrastructure.
Jonathan notes that Tim White (on Twitter) is a good source of information on strikes.
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Ukrainian Manpower Issues
🎦 17:36-22:51⏩
Jonathan discusses a Financial Times article that highlights manpower shortages and lack of training in the Ukrainian armed forces. Whilst 30,000 Ukrainians are being recruited per month (an impressive figure), new recruits are often being assigned to newly formed brigades, preventing them from passing on their experience to fresh recruits (a problem that has also plagued the Russian armed forces, affecting the force quality of units). There is a concern that experienced brigades such as the 72nd (fighting in Vuhledar since the start of the war) are losing experienced fighters without being able to pass this experience on as new recruits are being directed to new units, leading to high casualty rates for inexperienced troops. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 45, and there are reports that 50-70% of new infantry are killed or wounded within days. Understandably, public trust in Zelensky has fallen from 80% to 45%.
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FSB Special Forces Deployed to Kursk
🎦 22:51-24:12⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from the Institute for the Study of War that FSB special forces have been deployed to the Kursk region to help counter Ukrainian advances. It's questionable whether deploying special forces in a conventional warfare theatre is the best use of these troops. Jonathan draws parallels with the earlier deployment of VDV paratroopers and Naval Infantry brigades who would have been better suited to quick, offensive operations (for which they were trained) rather than the attritional warfare they were used for.
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Ukrainian Cyber Attack Targets Russian Servers
🎦 24:12-25:06⏩
A Ukrainian Cyber attack by the General Intelligence Directorate (GUR) recently targeted over 800 Russian servers, including those belonging to military, administrative and financial institutions. The loss of data has led to a partial or complete shutdown of several institutions, and whilst systems can be restored, it's unlikely the data can be recovered.
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Wrap up
🎦 25:06-26:13⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their support. He thanks several viewers (too many to name!) for their financial support which helps keep the channel running.
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