Ukraine War Update: Kursk Attack News & Analysis

"Ukraine was able to seize [Sudzha] with minimal casualties, minimal damage, and more importantly, was able to seize before Russian forces were able to destroy the documents and other useful intelligence"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:43⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update. He clarifies that the situation is dynamic with things changing rapidly so what is true at the time of filming may not be true later. Although things are going well for Ukraine in Kursk, there are challenges on the eastern front too. He notes that this video may be released on the 14th August in the UK given the time difference.

US denies prior knowledge of Kursk incursion

🎦 00:43-01:28⏩

Jonathan reports that the New York times have reported that the US was not given any forewarning of the Kursk offensive, possibly because Ukraine feared that the US would pressure them to cancel it. He adds that despite this, the US has confirmed it has been in constant communication with Ukraine since the operation started, with some reports suggesting Biden has spent 4-5 hours per day discussing it with Ukrainian officials.

Belarus transfers military equipment to Russia

🎦 01:28-02:22⏩

Jonathan states that Belarus has agreed to transfer military equipment to Russia at their request. This follows reported losses and lack of equipment in the Kursk and other areas.

Ukraine's Kursk incursion designed to force redeployment of Russian troops

🎦 02:22-05:19⏩

Jonathan analyses claims that one of the objectives of the Kursk offensive is to force Russia to redeploy troops from the east in order to defend Kursk, and that there has been some evidence that this has been happening. He cites a number of sources, including Politico and the Lithuanian Defence Minister who claims that Russia has redeployed troops from the Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea. This is further corroborated by reports that Lukashenko has ordered Belarusian troops to transfer equipment to the Russian army to make up for losses in Kursk. Jonathan adds that while the Ukrainians would like Russia to redeploy troops from around Turetsk, this is unlikely given that this is where they are having their most success.

Ukraine controls area of Kursk equivalent to 25 Bakhmut's

🎦 05:19-06:31⏩

Jonathan cites reports that Ukraine now controls an area in Kursk Oblast slightly larger than Kyiv, which is the equivalent of 25 Bakhmut's. This amounts to approximately 1,000 square kilometres of territory. It is also reported that Russia has lost at least 54 pieces of military equipment and that over 1,000 Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner.

Review of Andrew Perpetua's map of Kursk (07:25 BST)

🎦 06:31-07:40⏩

Jonathan reviews a map of the conflict by Andrew Perpetua, noting that it is already 7 hours out of date due to the fluidity of the situation on the ground. The map, which only shows visually confirmed open source data, shows that Ukraine controls a significant amount of territory, approximately 40km wide and 30km deep into Russian territory.

Russia digs trenches 45km behind border

🎦 07:40-08:26⏩

Jonathan discusses OSINT reports that Russian forces are digging trenches 45km behind the Russian border.

Review of Surat Maps' map of Kursk (13:25 BST)

🎦 08:26-11:15⏩

Jonathan analyses the latest map of the Kursk Oblast by pro-Russian source Surat Maps which shows that Ukraine regained the initiative from Russia following a pincer movement to the north of Koronova, capturing the settlements of Olgovka and Matvika, before being halted by Russian troops to the east of Koronova. He adds that Surat Maps shows that Russia retook some positions in Malaya Luhnia and Nikolaevka.

Review of No Report's Twitter thread on Kursk

🎦 11:15-18:18⏩

Jonathan reviews a Twitter thread by No Report which features images and videos showing a number of Russian POW's including Chechens. He states that a video has been released which appears to show the destruction of the command post of Kadyrov's Akhmat unit. Jonathan adds that according to No Report, Ukrainian forces have bypassed the settlements of Borky and Spell Noya and are fighting in Kruppets and Kamishnaya.

Emil Kastehelmi's analysis of the Kursk Offensive

🎦 19:00-21:33⏩

Jonathan reviews analysis by Emil Kastehelmi who argues that Russia appears to be struggling to contain the offensive, and that while they do not appear to be very organised, they are "somewhat in control of the situation". He adds that Emil believes that Ukraine has the ability to make further gains, however this would require them to accept greater risk and commit more troops to the battle.

Ukrainian intelligence gains access to Russian railway computer systems

🎦 21:33-25:21⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential intelligence gains resulting from the capture of the strategically important Russian town of Sudzha. This includes gaining access to schedules, train consists and internal Russian Railway communications, all of which could benefit partisan activity in the region as well as potentially providing targets for Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics.

Dara Massicot's analysis of Russia's response to the Kursk incursion

🎦 25:21-30:46⏩

Jonathan reviews Dara Massicot's analysis of Russia's response, which she describes as "a counter-terrorist operation". This means that responsibility for repelling the offensive will fall not to the army, but to the FSB and Rosgvardia.

Russian conscripts forced to sign contracts

🎦 30:46-32:07⏩

Jonathan reports that Russian conscripts are being forced to sign contracts and be sent to fight on the front line in Kursk.

Russia running out of men?

🎦 32:07-33:07⏩

Jonathan discusses reports that Russia is scraping the barrel in its attempts to bolster its forces in Kursk and are resorting to sending conscripts to plug the gaps, a sign that they are getting desperate.

Kursk Offensive: Where will Ukraine go next?

🎦 33:07-34:03⏩

Jonathan considers what Ukraine's next move might be. Options include digging in where they are, withdrawing to more advantageous lines or pulling out of Russia entirely for a PR win. He points out that whatever happens, Ukraine will have inflicted losses and gained valuable experience.

Wrap up

🎦 34:03-34:12⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, expresses hope that they found the video useful and signs off.