Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: USV Evolution, Slow Counter?, RUb Economy, & Rykove
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"The Ukrainians are fighting in a way that maximizes Russian losses while minimizing their own with the kit they have right now."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video by jokingly mentioning the Australian trolls infesting his threads with rhetoric about England losing the first test match in the Ashes cricket series. He made an ill-advised claim the previous day and is now reaping the rewards.
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Slow progress in Ukraine's counteroffensive
- President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that battlefield progress has been slower than desired in Ukraine's military offensive to recapture Russian-occupied areas.
- Zelensky said the military push is not going easily because 200,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory had been mined by Russian forces, which is one of the biggest issues for the Ukrainians.
- Ukraine will advance on the battlefield the way they deem best, reinforcing the need for security guarantees from NATO, with the ultimate goal being membership in the alliance.
Evolution of Ukraine's maritime drones (USVs)
H.I. Sutton from Covert Shores provided an overview of the evolution of Ukraine's maritime drones (unmanned sea vehicles) and Russian copies based on open-source intelligence:
- Summer 2022: Initial drone designs
- September-November 2022: Adapted designs used in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk
- February 2023: Russian explosive boat used against the Zatoka bridge
- March 2023: Evolved Ukrainian drone designs revealed
- April 2023: Toloka TK-15-150 underwater drone revealed
- May 2023: Second-generation maritime drones seen at Sevastopol (Ivankurs and Priazovye)
- June 18, 2023: Russian Saga maritime drone revealed
Significance of the Rykove ammunition depot strike
Trent Telenko provided analysis on the recent Storm Shadow strike on the Rykove ammunition depot:
- The strike hit a Russian Armed Forces theatre-level ammo storage depot, causing secondaries that lasted over 6 hours.
- Ukraine had previously destroyed two rail bridges feeding the depot, making replacing the ammo reserve a logistical disaster.
- Russian artillery fire per gun/launcher per day is expected to drop significantly in the south and southwestern Ukraine.
- The lack of administrative records (destroyed in the strike) will make it difficult for the Russians to determine which units should receive which ammunition.
- The artillery shells and rockets currently held by Russian units in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are all they will have for the next couple of weeks until supply lines are re-established.
Corruption in the Russian army
Chris Awickey reported that Russian army commanders are demanding large bribes (100,000 rubles) from their men to let them go on leave or keep them out of the front line. This illustrates the depth of corruption and the exploitative relationship many officers have with their men. One mother shared her son's experience, stating that he has been mobilised since September 2022 without a single period of leave despite government promises. Some soldiers pay to avoid the front lines while others risk their lives, causing frustration among the troops and their families.
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Update on the Russian economy
A Russian economy update from January to May 2023 shows:
- The Russian budget deficit has exploded to $42 billion, with a total deficit of $82 billion since the war began. More than half of the $150 billion in reserves from February 2022 have been depleted.
- Revenues from oil and gas fell by 64% year-on-year in April, while subsidies to oil and gas companies doubled.
- Non-oil and gas revenues showed a slight increase, but this is dubious given the overall economic situation.
- The 49% fall in oil and gas income (previously 60% of all Russian income) is having a catastrophic impact.
- The current deficit has already exceeded the forecast for the entire year by 60.8%, with seven months still remaining.
- Russia is on track to have a deficit of over $100 billion by the end of 2023, the highest ever recorded.
- War expenditure rocketed 26% to 11.2 trillion rubles compared to the same time last year.
- Current Russian reserves amount to under $150 billion, which will likely be depleted by year's end.
Trent Telenko's analysis of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Trent Telenko provided his analysis of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive:
- Western reporters are asking ignorant questions about whether the counteroffensive has failed, not understanding that Ukrainians are not time-constrained like Western democracies in this existential war.
- Ukrainians are fighting to maximize Russian losses while minimizing their own with the equipment they currently have.
- The so-called Surovikin line is a Potemkin village designed to convince Russian propaganda media audiences and susceptible Western journalists and politicians.
- Ukraine is attacking with just enough force to drive Russian reserves into the open for artillery and drones to destroy.
- The lack of trained Russian junior officers and NCOs to force local improvements and hide trash from drones in the fortifications is glaringly obvious.
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his supporters, particularly those who have gifted memberships during his live streams. He acknowledges the sometimes frustrating aspects of YouTube's membership system. Finally, he expresses his gratitude to all those who have supported him through various means, such as Buy Me a Coffee.
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