Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Avdiivka, Gonzalo Lira, & Information Bubbles
Table of Contents 📖
"Are you so skewed in your information bubble? Are you so slanted in your information intake that you just have no real handle on what the Russians have been doing for a year and a half plus....that you can look at someone like Gonzalo Lira and go, why is this person in prison? Why is this happening? ...What are you doing? Where have you gone wrong, so badly wrong, to be lording this chap, and ignoring this chap [Oleksandr Matsievsky] and the plight of his family? So messed up. So messed up."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics EXTRA video - extra "tidbits and nuggets" to enhance understanding of the war in Ukraine. He's going to start by discussing a Times article about Ukrainian troops who are low on ammunition despite being incredibly brave - a situation impacting the entire front line.
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Times Report from Avdiivka
🎦 01:08-11:22⏩
Jonathan references an article by Anne Applebaum highlighting a Times report from the front line near Avdiivka which states that Ukrainian troops are out of ammunition. The 47th Brigade, one of Ukraine's most well-equipped, outfitted with Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles are low on ammunition. They were tasked with breaking through heavily fortified Russian positions during the summer counteroffensive, but were forced to withdraw after advancing just six miles.
- "Sergeant Sausage", part of the 47th Brigade Air Reconnaissance Team describes the situation as "shitty".
- A mortar gunner, Sergeant Taras Fizruk (31), says they had 10 times more ammunition (and of better quality) over the summer. He highlights how the quality of American ammunition is very consistent (with few duds) but now they have to use shells from all over the world, with varying reliability. He describes a recent batch of shells being "full of duds". He describes how this impacts their ability to target Russian troops:
- Instead of firing on Russians as soon as they are in range, they now have to wait until they are heading directly for Ukrainian positions.
- They can only engage when there are large groups due to ammunition shortages, and must let smaller groups pass.
- Ukrainian troops have resorted to using unarmed drones to temporarily scare Russian troops who scatter in fear of grenades.
- The 47th Brigade are not receiving enough equipment and are having to fundraise for items, but deliveries are being held up at the border by truckers disgruntled by Ukrainian drivers undercutting their wages in Europe.
- Avdiivka is being hit daily by Russian 500kg KAB bombs (32 were dropped in a single day according to Vitaly Barabas, head of the Avdiivka Military Administration).
Abdiivka - Military and Strategic Importance
🎦 11:22-14:15⏩
Jonathan examines a map (created by JR) of the area around Avdiivka, noting that whilst there hasn't been much change of control, the Russians are attacking consistently. He highlights the strategic importance of the settlements of:
- Kailivka: Situated near reservoirs that supply water to Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas, and routinely hit by Russian artillery. The area was also targeted a while ago, possibly bridges/dams.
- Ocheria Ternna: Located on higher ground, the roads in this area are important for logistics, supplying other settlements.
Jonathan emphasises that if Avdiivka falls, these settlements become more vulnerable. He believes it is more important to defend Avdiivka than Bakhmut because of this, and because:
- It is not logistically important in itself - it is not on a supply line and cannot be used by the Ukrainians to supply other areas, only to receive supplies.
- Bakhmut's value was in attriting Russian troops. Whilst this is also true of Avdiivka, if it falls, Russian forces will be able to threaten other strategically important locations.
Russian Serviceman "13th"
🎦 14:15-17:55⏩
Jonathan highlights a WarTranslated video featuring a Russian serviceman with the call sign "13th" who has been fighting in Ukraine for nearly a decade.
- 13th appears to be questioning the legitimacy of the upcoming Russian elections and the motivations of the Putin regime.
- He is aware that political opponents in Russia are imprisoned or driven to suicide.
- He believes that the money being spent on elections should be diverted to the war effort and used to purchase equipment for soldiers.
- 13th calls for an end to the war, stating, "Please just let the people effing live in peace."
Jonathan views 13th's comments as evidence of a growing realisation amongst Russians about the true nature of the Putin regime and the war in Ukraine. He is unsure whether this realisation will result in Russians accepting that their country is morally in the wrong.
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Gonzalo Lira - Vatnik Soup
🎦 17:55-27:39⏩
Jonathan discusses Chilean-American Gonzalo Lira, who has been championed by Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson as an independent journalist imprisoned and tortured for criticising Zelensky. Jonathan disagrees with this assessment, and highlights a Vatnik Soup video by Pekka Kalyannemi detailing Lira's history:
- Who is Gonzalo Lira?: A failed pick-up artist who made money teaching western men how to sleep with impoverished Eastern European women.
- Why is he pro-Russia? He switched to promoting Russia, believing it would be lucrative.
- Unsuccessful Careers:
- Wrote unsuccessful spy novels.
- Co-wrote/produced/directed a poorly received action film (Sequestro) in 2005.
- Re-Emergence in 2010: Re-emerged as a self-proclaimed economics expert, forecasting hyperinflation in the US dollar. Published by the Wall Street Journal and Business Insider.
- Far-Right, Libertarian Views: Contributed to Zero Hedge, a blog known for publishing fake news.
- Red Pill Coach: Became a "coach" for the Red Pill movement, promoting misogynistic views, e.g.,
- Women over 30 are "ruined".
- Women only want money.
- Profits from the Manosphere: Earned a significant income from his Patreon account (almost 800 patrons = $4000-$8000 per month) selling digital seminars on dating and relationships.
- COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories: Spread COVID-19 conspiracy theories and called himself a "pure blood" for not being vaccinated. Claimed that people who had been vaccinated would become infertile.
- Doomsayer and Pro-Kremlin Propagandist: When social media sites began removing Manosphere content, he began promoting the idea of a war with China, encouraging people to relocate to underdeveloped countries. Moved to Kharkiv, Ukraine some years before the war, despite claiming that Western culture was "decadent". After initially claiming that Russia would not invade, he switched to becoming a pro-Kremlin propagandist following the invasion:
- Defended Russia's invasion and claims of a "Nazi regime" in Ukraine.
- Parroted Russian propaganda.
- Denied Russian war crimes.
- Claimed that the Bucha massacre was staged by the Ukrainian secret service.
- Arrest and Detention: Arrested by the SBU for taking photographs (illegal in Ukraine due to operational security risks) and for promoting pro-Russian views. He gave up five other pro-Russian collaborators in exchange for house arrest/deportation, choosing the latter. He was subsequently arrested again attempting to flee to Hungary, and is currently awaiting trial.
Jonathan believes that Lira is an opportunist seeking fame and money. He questions whether Lira genuinely believes what he's saying, or whether it's all just for attention and profit.
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Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson & Gonzalo Lira
🎦 27:39-31:05⏩
Jonathan is critical of Tucker Carlson's decision to devote an entire episode to Gonzalo Lira, portraying him as an innocent victim of the Zelensky regime and making allegations of torture.
- Elon Musk amplified Carlson's claims, tweeting his agreement and demanding an explanation from Zelensky. Musk subsequently blocked users who challenged his stance, and even deleted community notes providing context.
- Jonathan sarcastically comments about how Musk uses his power to make demands of presidents.
- The SBU denies torturing Lira and released a statement outlining the reasons for his arrest: promoting Russian aggression, spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda, denying Russian war crimes, and glorifying those participating in the invasion.
- Lira is due to appear in court in December.
Alexander Matsievsky
🎦 31:05-35:12⏩
Jonathan revisits the story of Oleksandr Matsievsky, the Ukrainian soldier executed by Russian troops after uttering the words "Glory to Ukraine". A statue has been erected in his honour, described by his mother as an "incredible likeness".
- Before being deployed to the front line, Oleksandr told his mother he would rather die than be captured, a promise he kept.
- His mother describes how she was sent the video of her son's execution and asked if it was him. Jonathan cannot comprehend the horror of watching the murder of a loved one.
Information Bubbles
Wrap up
🎦 35:12-35:30⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe, share and correct disinformation.
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