Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It goes to show that sanctions work - if he wants sanctions to be lifted on his family, then they must be causing him some issue there...the Americans and the EU and whoever else need to maintain strict sanctions on these people."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a slightly later-than-usual update on the Ukraine War, specifically focusing on news rather than frontline developments. He acknowledges that it's Christmas Day for some viewers.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:26-01:26⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, noting 800 personnel, seven tanks, 16 APVs, 13 artillery systems, one multiple launch rocket system, two anti-aircraft systems, 15 vehicles and fuel tanks, and four pieces of special equipment were lost. He remarks that these numbers are significant but not the highest recorded, possibly due to cold weather impacting operations.
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Oryx Update: Equipment Losses and Analysis
🎦 01:26-03:33⏩
Jonathan discusses equipment losses based on Oryx data (compiled by Andrew Perpetua), acknowledging the data skews towards visually confirmed drone losses. He highlights significant Ukrainian losses, including URL trucks, fuel tankers, and a boat SPG, likely from a single missile strike, potentially involving North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles.
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Ukrainian Drone Operations: Successes and Collaboration
🎦 03:33-08:16⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukrainian drone units' success, focusing on a unit collaborating with the well-known "Birds of Magia". This unit claims to have destroyed 20 artillery pieces, two tanks, and several AFVs using HIMARS, FPV drones, and larger bomber drones. They also effectively mined Russian logistical routes based on drone reconnaissance. Jonathan emphasizes the significance of multiple drone units operating effectively. He also notes UK intelligence reports crediting Ukrainian forces with weakening Russian air superiority in the south by successfully targeting Su-34 bombers, aligning with his previous observations about a decrease in Russian aerial bombardment using FAB guided glide bombs. He speculates that Russia might resume this tactic as Patriot systems might have been repositioned.
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Kinzhal Missile Warhead Neutralized
🎦 11:00-11:34⏩
Jonathan shares images of Kyiv sappers neutralizing a Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missile warhead. He points out the depth to which the missile penetrated the ground, suggesting it was traveling at high speed.
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Overnight Strikes: Limited Russian Drone Activity and Ukrainian Strikes in Crimea
🎦 11:34-19:25⏩
Jonathan observes that Russia launched only two Shahid drones into Ukrainian airspace, suggesting limited drone stockpiles. He reiterates his belief that Russia would maintain a consistent barrage if they possessed sufficient resources. He analyses this pattern, speculating that Russia might be waiting for drone deliveries and lacking the missile stockpiles for follow-up strikes. He emphasizes the importance of coordinating drone and missile attacks to exploit depleted air defence capabilities. Jonathan then shifts focus to Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, particularly around Yevpatoria. He cites Tim White, who reported the closure of the Kerch Strait Bridge and the presence of a Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft in Crimea, likely in response to the destruction of a radar station near Yevpatoria. He also mentions Rebar, who claims four Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles, launched from two Ukrainian Su-24 bombers, targeted the Saki Airfield, hitting an administrative building. Jonathan then highlights that Ukrainian Air Force Commander Oleschuk confirmed the Saki Airfield strike, stating it targeted the command post, indicating ongoing Ukrainian efforts to degrade Russian military infrastructure in Crimea.
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Artillery Ammunition: Shifting Dynamics and Future Implications
🎦 19:25-25:27⏩
Jonathan analyses artillery ammunition dynamics, referencing Rob Lee's observation about the impact of South Korean artillery shipments on Ukraine's summer offensive. He states that this influx allowed Ukrainian forces to surpass Russian artillery fire rates, reaching 7,000 shells daily compared to Russia's 5,000. However, with South Korean supplies dwindling and US funding delays, Ukraine's fire rate has decreased to 2,000 shells per day, while Russia, bolstered by North Korean ammunition, has doubled its rate to 10,000. Jonathan stresses that even with increased fire rates, Russia remains far below its peak capacity. He argues that securing a substantial US aid package is crucial for Ukraine, as their current ammunition situation likely prevents a significant counteroffensive in 2024, potentially delaying it until 2025. He recalls Ukraine's previous complaints about artillery shortages, suggesting a deliberate strategy to stockpile ammunition for a counteroffensive, which proved accurate with the summer campaign. Jonathan underscores the high cost of artillery ammunition in prolonged conflicts, emphasizing the need for stockpiling during periods of relative calm. He links this to the current situation on the frontlines, which has been characterized by positional battles and trench warfare following Ukraine's successful counteroffensives.
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Belgorod Region: Ukrainian Raids and Civilian Evacuations
🎦 25:27-32:01⏩
- Ukrainian intelligence reportedly raided Russian positions in the Grayvoron district of the Belgorod region, mining a key road and attacking a platoon stronghold. Jonathan mentions the area has seen previous Ukrainian activity.
- Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov offered to exchange Ukrainian prisoners for the lifting of sanctions against his family and horses. He reportedly handed over a list of prisoners to former US intelligence officer Scott Ritter, who was visiting Grozny. Jonathan strongly criticizes Ritter, labelling him a "Russian stooge" due to his actions and past controversies.
- Jonathan reports a Russian video showing the deployment of inflatable military equipment decoys, including S-400 air defense systems and tanks. He acknowledges that both sides utilize such tactics.
- He shares news of 21,000 people in the Moscow region experiencing power and heating outages. He criticizes the Russian government's mismanagement and wealth inequality, contrasting it with Europe's relative stability. He condemns the Russian government's focus on power and self-enrichment over the well-being of its people.
- Belgorod Oblast Governor Gladkov reported that residents are requesting relocation assistance following attacks. The authorities have offered evacuation options to concerned citizens. Jonathan ponders the implications of attacks on Russian soil, questioning if it will evoke empathy for Ukraine's situation or fuel pro-Kremlin sentiment. He emphasizes that Ukraine likely focuses on military targets and that civilian casualties are unintended consequences, reigniting the debate on the ethics of war.
Wrap up
🎦 32:01-32:03⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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