Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid

"That is the most pro-Ukrainian stance I have seen Donald Trump arrive at. This is massively significant."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:46⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel. This is part two of his Ukraine War Update News video for the 16th of February. He's currently in Poland on his way back to the UK but wanted to get a video out before he travels. Jonathan mentions the missile that hit near Kyiv, noting the incredibly loud air raid siren it triggered close to his hotel.

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North Korean KN23 Ballistic Missile hits near Kyiv

🎦 00:46-02:05⏩

A KN23 ballistic missile, reportedly supplied by North Korea, impacted near Kyiv, burning trees in a 40-metre radius. Jonathan expresses concern over the impact this would have had on a residential building and criticises North Korea for supplying weapons to Russia in violation of sanctions and potentially UN resolutions. He questions South Korea's response, expressing hope for behind-the-scenes actions and suggesting Ukraine should receive support from South Korea. Jonathan believes Russia routinely avoids consequences for such actions. He then transitions to discussing the situation in Avdiivka, Ukraine, noting that while the fighting is incredibly difficult for Ukrainian forces, Russia appears to be suffering heavy troop and equipment losses, reflected in reports from the Ukrainian general staff.

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Heavy Russian Losses in Avdiivka

🎦 02:05-09:06⏩

The Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade reports record destruction of Russian manpower and equipment in a single day in Avdiivka. According to a Russian volunteer, "Murtz", who had been critical of the Avdiivka assault before ceasing public commentary due to fear of prosecution, Russian elite units deployed to Avdiivka are taking heavy losses. Murtz criticised the Avdiivka offensive as a waste of reserves aimed at securing a victory for Putin's upcoming election on March 17th. He labels Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi "Prokhorov's undertaker" for overseeing the Ukrainian defence of Bakhmut. Jonathan delves into Murtz's Telegram post, highlighting Murtz's acknowledgment of heavy Russian losses during the capture of areas like Krasnyi Luch and his assertion that victory is achieved by defeating armies, not capturing specific locations, citing historical examples like Kutuzov's strategy and the Red Army's defence against the Wehrmacht in 1941. Jonathan agrees with Murtz's assessment that Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Krinki represent pyrrhic victories for Ukraine, coming at a high cost in Ukrainian lives, although noting that Russian equipment losses, in these areas, particularly Avdiivka and Krinki, are disproportionately high. He suggests Russian bot activity and attempts to control the narrative stem from these significant losses. He predicts that Avdiivka will ultimately fall but questions the long-term cost for Russia.

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Russia concentrating forces near Velyka Novosilka (Southern Front)

🎦 09:06-09:50⏩

A Ukrainian military spokesperson, Dmytro Lykhovyi, claims that Russia has concentrated more forces near Velyka Novosilka, on the southern front, than in Avdiivka. He speculates that Russia will attempt to retake Robotyne and push into the Ukrainian salient recaptured over the summer. Jonathan suggests this potential offensive may be intended to give Putin a pre-election victory.

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Military Aid and Equipment (Ramstein Meeting)

🎦 09:50-10:06⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to military aid and equipment following the recent Ramstein meeting between Ukraine and its allies, noting it was held virtually.

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Canada to support Ukraine's F-16 Fleet

🎦 10:06-11:10⏩

Canada has committed $44 million USD to support Ukraine's F-16 fighter jet fleet, as confirmed by Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair. Ukrainian Defence Ministry officials indicate that decisions regarding the F-16s have been finalised and the deployment is progressing as planned. Ilyarion Pavlyuk, a Ukrainian Defence Ministry speaker, confirmed the completion of training for pilots, engineers, and ground crew, indicating the jets will be operational soon. Jonathan acknowledges the complexity of such deployments, highlighting the need to train personnel, establish logistics, and prepare infrastructure.

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Germany to become Europe's biggest military power?

🎦 11:10-13:54⏩

Germany is increasingly positioning itself as a leading supporter of Ukraine within Europe, advocating for the mass production of weapons to address the threat posed by Russia. This call for mass production signals Germany's willingness to assume a more prominent military role, a significant shift given its history. Jonathan speculates that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's stance is driven by a recognition of the threat posed by Russia, potentially influenced by public opinion and political considerations. He observes similar sentiment across Europe, citing nations like the Netherlands, Baltic states, Finland, Norway, and Poland, indicating a growing consensus on the need for action against Russian aggression. Jonathan highlights the significance of Germany's commitment to increase its defence spending to at least 2% of GDP, in line with NATO requirements. He addresses criticism directed at Germany for seemingly falling short of the 2% target, arguing that their $8 billion USD contribution to Ukraine's defence should be factored in, as it directly contributes to NATO's objective of countering Russian aggression.

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Germany increases military support for Ukraine

🎦 13:54-15:25⏩

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has announced plans to quadruple the number of artillery shells supplied to Ukraine in 2024, a testament to Germany's expanding production capabilities. Germany has also pledged an additional €100 million in military aid to Ukraine, which includes an unspecified number and types of MRAPs (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles), bombs designed for small drones, 77 MAN KAT1 A1 trucks equipped with load-handling systems, medical supplies, and spare parts for various weapons systems. Jonathan expresses his approval of Germany's sustained commitment.

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Spain to send M113 APCs and other military equipment to Ukraine

🎦 15:25-16:09⏩

The Spanish Ministry of Defence has announced the expedited delivery of a new batch of M113 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) and other military equipment to Ukraine. While acknowledging that the M113s are older vehicles, Jonathan emphasises their continued utility for the Ukrainians, who have deployed them in various roles. The Spanish Ministry of Defence also confirmed the provision of weapons systems for air defence, air-to-air combat, and naval operations, a move welcomed by Jonathan, who suggests Spain should be contributing more to NATO efforts.

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Norway and UK to train Ukrainian marines

🎦 16:09-17:09⏩

Norway is set to commence training Ukrainian marines in small boat operations, starting in spring, according to Norwegian broadcaster NRK. This training initiative, part of Norway's contribution to the maritime coalition formed alongside other Ramstein format countries, particularly the UK, underscores the importance of maritime security in the Black Sea region, including safeguarding the Black Sea grain corridor.

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UK's role in the Black Sea Grain Deal and Oil Price Cap

🎦 17:09-23:33⏩

Jonathan, drawing on a conversation with a viewer named Pierre, highlights the often overlooked contributions of nations like the UK, which extend beyond direct military aid. He argues against solely relying on headline figures to assess a nation's support for Ukraine, emphasising the multifaceted nature of assistance provided by different countries based on their strengths. In this context, Jonathan delves into the UK's involvement in both the oil price cap on Russian oil and the Black Sea grain corridor. He explains that the UK, leveraging its dominant position in the maritime insurance sector, particularly through institutions like Lloyd's of London, has been instrumental in enforcing the oil price cap. By pressuring international maritime insurers to deny coverage for vessels transporting Russian oil above $60 per barrel, the UK has effectively limited Russia's ability to profit from oil sales at inflated prices. Jonathan acknowledges attempts to circumvent these sanctions but underscores their overall effectiveness in constraining Russia's revenue streams. Furthermore, Jonathan elucidates the UK's role in maintaining the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Following Russia's withdrawal from the initial agreement and subsequent blockade of grain shipments, Ukraine established an alternative export route along the Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines to the Bosporus Strait. However, Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain infrastructure, including the targeting of a specific ship, led to insurers refusing coverage for grain exports, citing heightened risks. To address this, the UK intervened, reaching an agreement with insurers like Lloyd's of London to underwrite the increased costs associated with war risk insurance, essentially guaranteeing coverage for vessels transporting Ukrainian grain and enabling the continuation of vital exports crucial to the Ukrainian economy. Jonathan concludes by emphasising the UK's significant, albeit often unseen, contributions to these initiatives, highlighting the nation's effective use of its expertise in maritime insurance to support Ukraine.

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The Netherlands joins Drone Coalition, UK to supply thousands of drones

🎦 23:33-24:14⏩

The Netherlands has joined the drone coalition aimed at enhancing Ukraine's drone capabilities. This coalition, spearheaded by Latvia, comprises five member countries committed to bolstering Ukraine's capacity for reconnaissance and targeted strikes against Russian forces. In a related development, the UK has pledged to supply Ukraine with thousands of drones, including first-person view (FPV) drones. This commitment stems from the UK's co-leadership, alongside Latvia, of an international coalition dedicated to bolstering Ukraine's drone technology. The UK has allocated £200 million to develop this capability in Ukraine.

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US approves GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb) for Ukraine

🎦 24:14-25:23⏩

In a long-awaited move, the US has confirmed the provision of GLSDBs (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs) to Ukraine. These munitions, launched from HIMARS or similar guided multiple-launch rocket systems, offer a significant increase in range and precision compared to standard HIMARS rockets, extending Ukraine's strike capability to 150 kilometers, double the range of conventional HIMARS rockets. Developed jointly by Boeing and Saab, GLSDBs are considered cost-effective and readily producible munitions. The US has already financed the initial batch. Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of these weapons for Ukraine, enabling them to target Russian positions and infrastructure from a safer distance.

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List of Syrian Mercenaries fighting for Russia in Ukraine

🎦 25:23-26:53⏩

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has published a list of Syrian mercenaries recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine. This revelation underscores the involvement of foreign fighters from various countries, including Nepal and Sierra Leone, bolstering Russian forces. Jonathan notes that this reliance on mercenaries allows Russia to minimize casualties among its own troops, reducing potential domestic backlash. He acknowledges the challenge this poses for Ukraine, which lacks the same access to foreign recruits, relying primarily on a smaller International Legion composed largely of volunteers. This disparity in recruiting capabilities, coupled with Russia's use of convicts to replenish its ranks, presents a significant hurdle for Ukraine.

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Ukraine Geopolitics: Zelensky to visit Europe

🎦 26:53-28:06⏩

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to address the Munich Security Conference and meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. During his visit to France, Zelensky and Macron are expected to sign an agreement on security guarantees. Jonathan quips that everyone enjoys singing in agreement. He adds that Zelensky's European tour will also include meetings with US Vice President Kamala Harris, Czech President Petr Pavel, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, anticipating positive outcomes for Ukraine in terms of further assistance.

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Hungary blocks EU sanctions against Russia and Latvia's role in re-exporting to Russia

🎦 28:06-28:39⏩

Hungary has obstructed the European Union's 13th round of sanctions against Russia, citing the inclusion of Chinese companies on the sanctions list as the reason for its opposition. Jonathan notes Hungary's alignment with both Russia and China. Meanwhile, Latvia has become the primary supplier of whisky and wine to Russia, accounting for 75% of whisky shipments in 2023. This development, reported by Kremlin-backed media, highlights potential loopholes in sanctions. Jonathan suggests curtailing these re-export loopholes is necessary to maintain pressure on Russia.

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Russia developing Anti-Satellite Weapons

🎦 28:39-29:13⏩

John Kirby, the US National Security Council's Coordinator for Strategic Communications, has revealed that Russia is developing anti-satellite weapons, posing a significant national security threat. This development, highlighted in a recent video by YouTube creator Perun, underscores the escalating risks of conflict extending into space, particularly given the critical role satellites play in modern warfare. Jonathan expresses concern over the potential consequences of a conflict in space.

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US and Russia in talks about potential nuclear weapons test in space

🎦 29:13-31:16⏩

US President Joe Biden has initiated talks with Russia to address concerns over a potential Russian nuclear weapons test in space. This development raises questions about the nature and intent behind Russia's actions. Jonathan, while cynical about the timing of this revelation, speculates that it could be a calculated move by the White House to galvanize American public opinion, particularly among those sympathetic to Russia or critical of US support for Ukraine, by emphasizing the threat posed by Russia. He suggests this could be a strategy to garner support for Ukraine by invoking Cold War anxieties and fears of a space-based arms race, using the prospect of "satellite wars" to shift public sentiment.

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Biden criticises Trump's stance on NATO

🎦 31:16-34:41⏩

President Biden has strongly condemned former President Donald Trump's statements on NATO, particularly Trump's suggestion that he would have allowed Russia to act freely if NATO allies failed to meet defence spending targets. Biden characterizes Trump's words as subservient to a Russian dictator and asserts that he would never engage in such behavior. He denounces Trump's stance as foolish, disgraceful, and dangerous. Jonathan concurs with Biden's assessment, noting that Trump's remarks undermine NATO unity and embolden Russia. He also addresses the argument, often used to justify Trump's criticism, that Europe is not contributing its fair share to NATO. Jonathan refutes this claim, citing data demonstrating that average defence spending across NATO members in Europe has reached 2% of GDP. He argues that while certain nations, like Spain or Portugal, might be lagging behind, it's inaccurate to paint all of Europe with the same brush, especially given that countries like Poland are exceeding US defence spending as a percentage of GDP.

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Trump suggests US Aid to Ukraine should be Loans

🎦 34:41-36:54⏩

Jonathan speculates that Trump may have received advice to moderate his pro-Putin stance to broaden his appeal beyond his base. Interestingly, Trump has proposed that future US aid to Ukraine should be structured as loans rather than grants, with the expectation that Kyiv would repay if possible. Jonathan interprets this as Trump's most pro-Ukrainian stance to date, signaling a potential shift in his position.

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Republican Congressman Mike Johnson blocks Ukraine Aid

🎦 36:54-42:24⏩

Republican Congressman Mike Johnson has blocked efforts to approve Ukraine aid, linking it to the passage of a separate immigration bill. Jonathan argues that this move is a deliberate tactic to prevent any progress on immigration reform, using it as a wedge issue to bolster Trump's chances in the 2024 election. He suggests that Johnson, acting on instructions from Trump and the House Freedom Caucus, is prioritizing partisan politics over effective governance and the needs of Ukraine. Jonathan criticizes Johnson's shifting justifications for obstructing the aid package, noting that even after a bipartisan border security bill, far stricter than previous proposals, was negotiated and passed by the Senate, Johnson declared it "dead on arrival" in the House. This, according to journalist Kim Strassel, highlights the absurdity of Johnson's position, suggesting he is simply following Trump and the House Freedom Caucus's lead to obstruct aid to Ukraine at all costs. Jonathan concludes that the blocking of the aid bill in the House is not about legitimate concerns over immigration or the border but rather a calculated maneuver to undermine Ukraine and score political points. He highlights that even though the Senate passed a bill to provide aid to Ukraine and Israel with bipartisan support, Speaker Johnson ensured it would never reach a vote in the House.

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Russia imposes banana embargo on Ecuador, Ukraine and Poland in talks over Agricultural trade, Russia to leave OSCE

🎦 42:24-44:06⏩

In a seemingly retaliatory move, Russia has imposed a complete ban on banana imports from Ecuador. Jonathan connects this embargo to Ecuador's decision to retire its outdated Soviet-era military equipment, which is being replaced with US-supplied hardware. This equipment swap allows Ecuador to indirectly support Ukraine without directly violating any US restrictions on military aid. Jonathan reports that banana prices in Russia have surged by 44% over the past year, reaching nearly 90% in certain cities, according to data from Rosstat. In more positive news, Poland and Ukraine are nearing the final stages of negotiations for a bilateral agreement aimed at resolving the ongoing trade dispute over Ukrainian agricultural products. According to Poland's Agricultural Minister, the technical aspects of the agreement are being finalized, and quotas for Ukrainian agricultural goods entering Poland could be established by the end of March. Russia is also planning to withdraw from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that while the withdrawal has not yet been formally discussed, it remains a possibility. Jonathan welcomes this potential move, believing it would further isolate Russia and weaken its influence on the international stage.

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FBI informant to be charged with lying about Biden's and Burisma, Iran Gas Pipeline explodes

🎦 44:06-45:35⏩

An FBI informant expected to face charges for allegedly lying about Joe and Hunter Biden's involvement with Burisma, a Ukrainian energy company, is now facing accusations of fabrication. This development casts doubt on Republican allegations of wrongdoing by the Bidens related to Ukraine. Shifting gears, Jonathan reports on a breaking news story: a major explosion and fire have occurred at a section of the Line 65 natural gas pipeline in central Iran. The incident, attributed to a technical malfunction, has prompted a significant emergency response, though no link to ongoing regional conflicts has been established. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about potential connections to the conflict in Ukraine or Russia's energy sector but notes the potential implications of such incidents for global energy supplies.

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Wrap up

🎦 45:35-45:50⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, acknowledging the length of the video due to the volume of news. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.

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