Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - A Short One!
Table of Contents 📖
"Miracles do happen despite what I've said all my life."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a shorter than usual Ukraine War News Update for 17/01/2025. He explains that there's not a lot of news today and fewer videos/sources than normal.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses 16th January 2025
🎦 00:20-01:31⏩
Jonathan starts by reviewing the daily Ukrainian General Staff report and comments on the high Russian personnel losses of 1,670. He notes that the tank losses are above average at 12, but that artillery system losses were very low at 4. Vehicle and fuel tank losses were also very high at 124. Jonathan speculates on the reasons for this.
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Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 01:31-02:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the ISW's recent analysis on Russian equipment shortages and struggles to locate a source he wanted to share regarding unarmored vehicles.
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Russian "Half-Life" Vehicles
🎦 02:15-03:04⏩
Jonathan shares a report from open source intelligence expert Chris Owen about Russia's use of converted UAZ-3303 vehicles, known as "Half-Life" or "Tadpole" vehicles, and how they have not been very successful.
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Russian S-400 Launcher Destroyed in Kursk
🎦 03:04-03:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of a Russian S-400 launcher in the Kursk region, noting that it is a significant loss as the S-400 is Russia's most advanced air defence system. He questions what Russia's manufacturing capabilities are for these systems, as they've lost a few in recent months.
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Ukrainian Strike on Russian Radar System in Belgorod
🎦 03:41-04:26⏩
Jonathan covers a report from the Ukrainian General Staff reporting a successful strike on a Russian radar system in the Belgorod region, damaging an S-400 radar station and a radar unit of the 336th Signal Regiment. He notes that this is being widely reported and that he hopes to see visual confirmation soon.
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Russian Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 04:26-06:07⏩
Jonathan talks about a recent Russian nighttime attack involving 50 drones and 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. 33 of the drones were destroyed, 9 were decoys and one disappeared into Romania. Jonathan speculates that 7 hit their targets. He also discusses the drone that entered Romanian airspace, which is suspected to have been shot down by Romanian F16s, although this has not been confirmed by Romania. Jonathan also notes that there is pressure on Poland from some quarters to shoot down Russian drones that enter their airspace but that Poland is waiting for NATO backing for this.
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Lack of Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 06:07-08:50⏩
Jonathan points out that, unusually, there are no reports of Ukrainian strikes inside Russia and speculates on why this might be. He expresses disappointment that strikes have not materialised as he was hoping that Ukraine would use this period before the 20th (presumably January) to ramp up the pressure on Russia in advance of possible increased military activity then. Jonathan considers that this lack of strikes might be because Ukraine does not yet have the capacity to launch regular attacks on this scale. Alternatively, it is possible that attacks are taking place but not being reported. Jonathan goes on to give more detail on previous Ukrainian strikes including a drone attack on a fuel depot in Lyski, Voronezh region, two days previously, in which 3, possibly 4, fuel tanks were damaged. He notes that the fires are still burning, making it difficult to extinguish and expresses his satisfaction at this turn of events. Jonathan then shares details of footage of a burning oil depot in Engels, which he believes was hit for the second time a few days ago.
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Other News
🎦 08:50-11:12⏩
Jonathan moves on to other news from the war, starting with a statement from the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, that Russia is failing to achieve its strategic goals on any front. Jonathan points out that they are still making territorial gains. General Zaluzhny had also spoken recently with the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, to discuss the situation on the frontlines. Jonathan mentions a report that North Korean troops will march in Red Square during the annual May 9th Victory Day Parade this year and that a North Korean military band may also participate in the parade and other official events in Russia. He also mentions the Iranian president's recent visit to Moscow, commenting wryly that "that axis of evil is getting ever closer". Jonathan then brings up the news that Russian hackers have been posing as US government officials on WhatsApp to infiltrate groups belonging to NGOs that support Ukraine, as a way of disrupting the flow of humanitarian aid. He finishes this section with the news that three of Alexei Navalny's lawyers have been sentenced to between three and a half and five and a half years in prison each, on charges of extremism.
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Wrap up
🎦 11:12-11:31⏩
Jonathan remarks that at 11 minutes and 20 seconds, this is probably the shortest "Hits and Losses" video he's ever made, adding humorously that "miracles do happen". He signs off by thanking viewers for watching and saying he will speak to them again soon.
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