Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I think you possibly could, like I've said before, my entire approach to the Ukrainian war, the defense of Crimea at the moment would be a kind of active defense where that active defense entails getting hold of an absolute bucket load of missiles and drones and just flinging them at the Russians every single night as much as possible."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:25⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Frontline update for 12th March 2024. He reminds viewers to check the map key if needed.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Cross-border attacks in Kursk and Kharkiv regions

🎦 00:25-05:52⏩

Jonathan begins by discussing the attacks being carried out by pro-Ukrainian Russian units across the border into the Kursk and Kharkiv regions. These units, which include the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, have conducted incursions near Tetkino, Grivoron, Shibukino, and Kuzinka. Footage has emerged showing the pro-Ukrainian forces using tanks and artillery, suggesting coordination with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While the pro-Ukrainians claim to control Tetkino, Jonathan believes their presence is likely limited to raids rather than sustained occupation. Russian state media has retaliated by releasing footage of damaged pro-Ukrainian equipment, including a tank with a detached track and several abandoned armoured carriers. Jonathan anticipates a strong counteroffensive from the Russian military, given the attacks occurred within Russian territory.

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Frontline from Kupiansk to Kreminna

🎦 06:10-09:03⏩

Moving south to the frontline proper, Jonathan reports no changes between Kupiansk, Svatove, and Kreminna, signifying a significant stalemate. He notes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed Russian advances east of Terny, corroborating claims from pro-Russian sources and military bloggers. However, Ukrainian forces have confirmed their control of Terny, refuting Russian claims of capturing the settlement. Despite this, a pro-Russian military blogger suggests Russian forces may launch a simultaneous attack on Terny and Yampolivka to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead on the Zherebets River. Jonathan acknowledges the strategic importance of this area for the Russians, but believes their goal of capturing the entire territory up to the Oskil River is unrealistic. He observes the Russians are employing a "bite and hold" strategy, capturing small areas and fortifying their positions.

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Ukrainian gains near Bohdanivka

🎦 09:03-11:22⏩

Shifting to the area north of Ivaniske, Jonathan reports Ukrainian gains near Bohdanivka. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian forces captured a Russian position northwest of the settlement, although the ISW notes this advance may not be recent. This gain strengthens the Ukrainian buffer zone between Chasiv Yar and Russian forces. However, the situation in Ivaniske remains challenging, with a Ukrainian company commander acknowledging Russian forces captured positions on the town's outskirts in early March. While the commander states the Russians have not advanced further, other military mappers suggest Russia controls a larger portion of Ivaniske. Jonathan highlights the discrepancy in information from various sources. Despite this, he believes the overall lack of significant Russian advances in areas like Ivaniske, along with the static frontlines in other areas, suggests a limited capacity for deep offensives from Russian forces. He speculates their focus remains on specific areas west of Avdiivka.

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Fighting west of Avdiivka

🎦 11:22-18:06⏩

Jonathan analyses the situation west of Avdiivka, where Russian forces are reportedly making gains. While acknowledging the pressure in areas like Orlivka, Berdychi, and Antonenko, he observes the Russian advance has been slower and more grinding compared to their swift capture of Avdiivka. He attributes this to Ukrainian reinforcements and improved artillery ammunition supplies. Jonathan expresses frustration that Ukrainian successes are contingent on external support, particularly the timely provision of ammunition. He then focuses on Pervomaiske, where Russian forces are advancing along a lake, potentially encircling Ukrainian positions. The Russians claim to have taken control of forest belts near Nevelske, north of Pervomaiske, although the ISW has not confirmed these claims. Jonathan highlights the significance of this development, noting the heavy fighting and destruction in the area. He also discusses contrasting reports from military bloggers, some claiming significant Russian gains in Pervomaiske, while others, including the ISW, have not observed visual confirmation of these advances. Despite the ongoing fighting and varied reports, Jonathan concludes that Russian forces are struggling to make significant breakthroughs west of Avdiivka due to factors such as poor coordination, communication issues between units, and inadequate training.

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Fighting near Krasnohorivka and Marinka

🎦 18:06-20:36⏩

Jonathan notes that Russian control near Krasnohorivka, initially indicated by some military analysts, has been scaled back in light of Ukrainian resistance. He suggests initial assessments may have overestimated Russian gains, emphasizing the fluid nature of the frontline in this area. Moving to Marinka, he reports active hostilities, with Russian forces attacking north of Heorhiivka with armoured vehicles. While the ISW has geolocated footage confirming recent Russian advances in this area, Jonathan cautions against assuming complete Russian control. He highlights the importance of distinguishing between attacks and sustained control, emphasizing that Russian forces, despite their offensives, are facing heavy resistance and suffering losses.

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Jonathan receives some new ATP Geopolitics stash!

🎦 20:36-21:11⏩

Jonathan takes a brief pause from the frontline analysis to share his excitement about receiving a new ATP Geopolitics hoodie. He shows it off to viewers, exclaiming, "Whoop, whoop!"

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Fighting near Novomykhailivka

🎦 21:11-23:57⏩

Resuming the frontline analysis, Jonathan examines the situation near Novomykhailivka. Footage reveals destroyed Russian BMPs north of the settlement following a failed assault. While some analysts have marked this area as under Russian control, Jonathan, referencing footage of destroyed vehicles, contends the situation is more accurately described as a grey zone with ongoing fighting. He reiterates his previous point about the importance of differentiating between attacks and sustained control when interpreting battlefield information. Jonathan highlights the heavy losses sustained by Russian forces, particularly armoured vehicles, in their attempts to advance in this region. He questions the strategic value of these gains, given the high cost in equipment and personnel.

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Ukrainian presence in Kherson Oblast

🎦 27:10-29:53⏩

Jonathan shifts his attention to the situation in Kherson Oblast, specifically the Ukrainian presence on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Despite recent Ukrainian gains near Krynky, the ISW reports that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in this area. The Russian-appointed head of the Kherson Oblast administration claims only scattered groups of Ukrainian servicemen remain in Krynky. Jonathan finds this claim plausible, considering reports that only one out of four Ukrainian brigades remains on the left bank. He expresses doubt about the feasibility of Ukraine expanding their bridgehead in this area, citing the significant resources required for such an operation.

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Jonathan's thoughts on Crimea

🎦 29:53-30:12⏩

Jonathan segues into a discussion about Crimea, suggesting Ukraine should adopt an "active defense" strategy for the peninsula. He advocates for a relentless campaign of missile and drone strikes targeting Russian logistics, infrastructure, and military assets. This approach, he argues, would attrit Russian forces without risking significant Ukrainian casualties. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of long-range strikes and drones in shaping the battlefield and weakening the Russian military's capacity to wage war.

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Wrap Up

🎦 30:12-30:49⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for their support and announcing an upcoming live stream to promote a new fundraising initiative with Prof. Greg Ter-Ghazaryan. He encourages viewers to participate in the live stream, where he'll discuss the current situation on the frontline and provide more details about the fundraising drive.

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