Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Ru Electoral Meddling, Why Ukraine Need to Win, & Poland
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Table of Contents 📖
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"The stark truth is that this war will only end for good when Russia's neo-imperial dream finally dies."
Insights from new book on Poland's early involvement in Ukraine war
- A new book provides fascinating insights from the Polish perspective on the early days of the Ukraine war. It reveals that:
- The Polish government was seriously concerned Belarus would join the war. Lukashenko was so afraid that he inquired about fleeing through Poland if things went south for him.
- Polish special forces secured Ukrainian delegates attending negotiations in Belarus in March 2022. British and Polish special forces units gathered intel in Ukraine when the war erupted.
- Despite Russian propaganda, Poland never thought about using the opportunity to reclaim Lviv. Poland provided unconditional help to Ukraine on many levels.
- In March, a Polish plane carrying the Polish President had to make an emergency landing on the way to a meeting with Biden, with sabotage investigated as a possible cause.
Reasons the West should care about defeating Russia
In an Atlantic article, Anne Applebaum argues the West must defeat Russia in Ukraine because:
- An unchecked Russia will lead to future conflicts endangering American and European lives. It's better to stop Russia now.
- Russian propaganda and political interference could further divide Western societies and worsen dysfunction. Russia has undoubtedly meddled in US and UK elections to sow discord.
- Defeating Russia now can prevent a much worse future conflict with Russia, China or Iran.
- If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it would embolden China to invade Taiwan. Russia could threaten other neighbours like Poland and the Baltics. It would strengthen Russia's authoritarian alliances and damage Europe's prosperity and security.
- America's credibility and global standing would be undermined. We would be in a less safe, more authoritarian world.
Changes to Russian military force structure
Retired Australian general Mick Ryan provided an update on changes to Russia's military force structure:
- In the short term, Russia is shifting to brigade and division size formations, expanding its paratroopers (VDV), and moving away from battalion tactical groups (BTGs) which have not been successful.
- In the medium term, the changes are about command and control and structures that can be mobilised against NATO. Russia is unlikely to be able to sustain operations in Ukraine as well as fill personnel for new formations.
- The big necessary reforms are intellectual - addressing gaps between Russian doctrine and practice. Reforms in training, education, leadership, command and control will be needed.
- If these changes are accompanied by systematic reforms based on lessons from Ukraine, we could see a different Russian military evolve, but it's a big "if".
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares a video showing a Russian plane dropping a FOB-500 dumb munition adapted with GPS and fins to give it a 50km range. The footage was geolocated to 50km from the front line.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes he will probably get kickback for mentioning the Mueller report. He clarifies he is talking about Russian meddling and assault on epistemic security by sowing discord and division, not necessarily collusion between governments and Russia. He ends by saying "on that happy note, take care guys, speak soon, toodlepits!"
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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Insights from a new book about Poland's perspective and involvement in the early days of the Ukraine war
Reasons why the West should care about defeating Russia in Ukraine, based on an article by Anne Applebaum
Analysis of changes to Russia's military force structure
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