Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It blows my mind that Americans or any kind of Western peeps seem to be drawn in by the Russian narrative. Why would you think Russia is a better place to go and live and be a part of? And why is it you think that their foreign policy of invading a sovereign nation is morally what you want to work for?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war news update - the first part for the 25th of October 2024. He comments that there is so much going on he might have to do a 24 hour live stream to cover it all.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Elon Musk in talks with Vladimir Putin since 2022 about Starlink
🎦 00:26-02:00⏩
Jonathan reports that the Wall Street Journal has released an article claiming Elon Musk has been in communication with Vladimir Putin since 2022 regarding Starlink. He goes on to say that Musk has donated $118 million to Trump's campaign and there appears to be a link between Russia and the US elections. Jonathan talks about the Houthis receiving targeting information from the Russians enabling them to attack commercial shipping in the Red Sea. He states this is a World War and Musk is compromised. Jonathan says that the US Election is probably the most important election of all time, and this is all happening at the same time.
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General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report heavy Russian losses - 1,630 personnel in last 24hrs
🎦 02:00-04:54⏩
Jonathan reports that it has been another heavy day for the Russians with losses in some categories very high, citing the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine figures of 1,630 personnel lost in the last 24 hours, the third highest number seen so far. He also reports the following losses: 7 tanks, 33 armoured personnel vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 79 vehicles and fuel tanks and 22 pieces of special equipment. He notes that whilst the tank losses are slightly below the daily average, all other categories are significantly higher than average. He comments that the losses being sustained are unsustainable and will force a change in Russian tactics. Jonathan notes that the appearance of female convicts on the front lines, North Korean troops, convict groups and the use of motorbikes, buggies and cars to transport troops all point to a change in Russian tactics borne out of necessity. He goes on to say that the use and subsequent loss of older equipment such as M46 artillery pieces, dating from 1951 and older vehicles points to stockpiles of modern equipment running low. He says that the claim made yesterday that Russia is close to exhausting its stockpile of T-80 tanks supports the assertion that these losses are unsustainable.
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Andrew Perpetua Equipment loss data 23rd-24th October
🎦 04:54-11:09⏩
Jonathan presents the last two days worth of data from Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed equipment losses, beginning with the 23rd of October, noting that Ukrainian losses appear to be higher when taking into account comms equipment. He comments that whilst not as valuable or easily replaceable as other equipment, losses of CV90s and Bradleys will need to be replaced. He makes special mention of the high number of Senator APCs that have been captured by Russian forces. Moving on to Russian equipment losses, he notes that a number of D-20 and D-30 howitzers have been destroyed alongside a significant number of trucks and civilian vehicles, as well as motorcycles. Jonathan states that the use of motorcycles, buggies and cars by Russian forces is indicative of a change in their behaviour compared to the first year of the war, suggesting that Russia can no longer sustain large scale mechanised assaults involving large numbers of vehicles. Reviewing Andrew Perpetua's data for the 24th of October, Jonathan observes that the confirmed losses are much more favourable for the Ukrainians with the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses being 3 or 4 to one. Notable Ukrainian losses include a Bogdan self-propelled howitzer and an M109 howitzer, with Jonathan commenting that the loss of the indigenously produced Bogdan will hurt. He also notes that all confirmed Ukrainian losses in the APC and MRAP categories were Western or indigenously produced vehicles. Jonathan notes a significant increase in the number of M46 howitzers being used and lost by Russian forces, adding that the use of a 75 year old howitzer in 2024 is incredible, before going on to say that this points to desperation on the part of the Russians. He makes special mention of the loss of a T-90 tank which he believes will be a significant loss for the Russians.
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Russian convict soldier survival rate only 2%
🎦 11:09-15:38⏩
Jonathan references a twitter thread by ChrisO_Wickey about the low survival rate of Russian convict soldiers being used as assault troops. He states that Russian commanders are said to expect only a 2% survival rate amongst convicts, adding that those that do survive are punished for disobeying orders. Jonathan suggests that the Kremlin views these troops as completely expendable and would rather see them die on the offensive than have to reintegrate them back into Russian society after the war. He provides further evidence of this from a video recorded by two Russian convicts, Vyacheslav Trutnev and Dmitry Ostrovsky. In the video, the pair accuse their deputy commander of imprisoning and causing the deaths of men who had survived previous assaults, claiming that they were thrown into a zindan (underground prison) and denied food and water. The pair go on to claim that three of the men died in the zindan with the remainder being sent on a suicidal unarmed assault in which all perished. Jonathan points out that it is common practice in the Russian army to list those that go missing as AWOL in order to avoid paying compensation to their families.
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North Korean troops deployed to Ukraine - 8 officers killed in action on first day
🎦 15:38-18:55⏩
Jonathan reports that the Kyiv Post has confirmed the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine and that 8 North Korean officers have been killed in action on their first day of deployment, citing a Chinese mercenary fighting for Russia as the source. Jonathan adds that a shortage of infantry in the Kursk region has forced the Russians to draft in troops from as far afield as the Russian Pacific Fleet, where they served as crew on the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov. He notes that the carrier has been out of action for a number of years and is unlikely to be repaired any time soon, freeing up crew to be sent to the front line. Jonathan expresses the view that both sides are desperate and the situation on the front lines is very fluid at the moment, but the situation is unsustainable in the long term for the Russians. He questions whether counterattacking is the best use of resources and whether negotiating a peace settlement may be more beneficial. He concludes by saying that the deployment of North Korean troops may not be enough for the Russians.
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Ukraine War - is Russia losing?
🎦 18:55-21:05⏩
Jonathan questions whether the Russians are losing the war and highlights the sheer volume of equipment being lost by Russian forces on a daily basis, suggesting that the Ukrainians are very effectively targeting Russian equipment with drones.
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Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk - large numbers of Russian vehicles destroyed by Ukrainian drone strikes
🎦 21:05-23:18⏩
Jonathan presents footage of the aftermath of a Ukrainian counterattack on Russian positions in the village of Zelenyi Shylak in the Kursk region. He comments that the road between Snagost and Zelenyi Shylak is littered with destroyed Russian military equipment, going on to say that the Ukrainians are making very effective use of drones. Jonathan also provides details of Russian equipment losses in the Kursk region reported by a pro-Ukrainian Twitter account. He comments that although the Ukrainians appear to be losing ground in Kursk, they are inflicting heavy casualties in terms of men and equipment, forcing the Russians to commit ever greater numbers of men and material to hold their positions.
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Russian Buk-M2 SAM system destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS
🎦 23:18-25:06⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Russian Buk-M2 self-propelled surface-to-air missile system that has been destroyed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike.
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Was a German Iris-T air defence system destroyed in a recent Russian missile attack?
🎦 25:06-26:17⏩
Jonathan discusses footage of what appears to be a German Iris-T air defence system being destroyed in a Russian missile attack. He expresses the view that the white smoke given off in the explosion is indicative of a decoy system rather than the detonation of a missile. Jonathan explains that decoy Iris-T systems are used to protect the actual systems from destruction, and that the absence of a large secondary explosion supports the theory that the system in the footage was a decoy. He concludes by saying that it is impossible to say for sure whether the system was genuine or not.
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Ukrainian ATGM crew killed after being spotted by a Russian drone
🎦 26:17-27:25⏩
Jonathan talks about the dangers of operating from prominent positions such as slag heaps which offer little in the way of cover. He shows footage of a Ukrainian ATGM crew that have been targeted and destroyed after being spotted by a Russian drone.
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Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone destroyed by Ukrainian interceptor drone
🎦 27:25-28:50⏩
Jonathan talks about the use of interceptor drones to target Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones. He presents footage of an Orlan-10 being tracked by two Ukrainian drones, one of which explodes, destroying the Orlan-10 in the process. He explains that interceptor drones can be programmed to ram their target or physically attach themselves to it and detonate a small onboard explosive device. Jonathan concludes by suggesting that the specifications for a drone designed for interception are different to those of a drone designed for reconnaissance, with the former needing to be faster, have better battery life and be able to operate at higher altitudes.
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Australian and other foreign volunteers fighting for Ukraine
🎦 28:50-29:53⏩
Jonathan gives a shout out to Australian viewers and comments on a video showing Australian volunteers fighting for Ukraine repelling a Russian assault in Zaporizhzhia. He jokes that the video contains bad language, gunfire and the c-bomb - everything an Aussie could want!
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Rosgvardia convoy ambushed in Grozny - 3 Russian military policemen killed
🎦 29:53-31:06⏩
Jonathan reports that a Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) convoy has been ambushed in Grozny, Chechnya, resulting in the deaths of three Russian military policemen. He speculates that the attack could signify growing tensions between Chechnya and Russia, or between the Akhmat (Chechen) forces and regular Russian troops. Jonathan concludes by saying that if this is the case, it would be good news for the Ukrainians, but at this stage it is too early to tell what the ramifications are.
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Sabotage attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and military equipment
🎦 31:06-36:06⏩
Jonathan talks about a series of sabotage attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and military equipment that have been orchestrated and paid for by the Russians. He provides three examples of this type of incident; one in the Kyiv region, one in Dnipro and another in Nikopol, all involving arson attacks on railway infrastructure and in one case the vehicle of a Ukrainian soldier. Jonathan explains that this is a tactic employed by the Russians in order to disrupt the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine, sow discord amongst the Ukrainian population and undermine the war effort. He highlights the vulnerability of Ukrainian society to this type of attack, especially given the difficult economic circumstances many find themselves in as a result of the war, suggesting that the offer of a few hundred dollars to carry out a relatively low risk task may be too tempting for some to resist.
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Ukraine War - Russia launches large drone wave - 63 Shahed drones - 36 destroyed, 16 downed by EW
🎦 36:06-38:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has launched another large wave of Shahed suicide drones against targets in Ukraine - 63 in total - and that whilst 36 were shot down with a further 16 brought down by electronic warfare, the fate of the remaining 11 is unknown at this time. He explains that the Russians employ a similar tactic when using drones as they do with infantry attacks, in that they are unconcerned by individual losses and see it as a numbers game. Jonathan says that from the Russian perspective if they launch 50 drones and only five get through they will consider that a success because over a period of time the cumulative effect of these small victories will result in the destruction of a significant number of targets for a relatively low cost.
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Ukraine War - two killed in Russian missile attack on private post office in Fredonetsk
🎦 38:18-39:27⏩
Jonathan reports the deaths of two civilians following a Russian missile attack on a private post office in Fredonetsk. He goes on to say that towns and cities in Donetsk Oblast such as Druzhkivka, Oleksiive-Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk are subjected to daily artillery bombardments. Jonathan concludes by saying that there were no reports of Ukrainian strikes into Russia, but notes that a radar facility in Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea was reportedly destroyed two nights ago and speculates that there may have been other strikes that have not been reported.
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Ukraine War News Round Up
🎦 39:27-51:04⏩
Jonathan rounds up some of the other news stories relating to the war in Ukraine:
- Naval logistics in the Azov and Black Sea are essentially dead for the Russian navy with most of its landing ships either moved to Novorossiysk or stuck in Crimea undergoing repairs, effectively negating its ability to launch amphibious operations. Jonathan praises the Ukrainian armed forces for their success in neutralising the Russian Black Sea Fleet, despite not having a navy of their own.
- South Korean intelligence sources are claiming that North Korea only has enough ammunition to sustain a war for three months. Jonathan describes this as massive news if true, as it would severely limit Russia's ability to rely on North Korea for support.
- Satellite imagery analysis suggests that there has been an increase in the amount of light emanating from North Korea. Jonathan explains that North Korea is traditionally a very dark place when viewed from space owing to the desperate economic situation there, and speculates that this could be as a result of the Russians supplying North Korea with energy in return for weapons and ammunition.
- A Russian IL-76 military transport aircraft was mistakenly shot down by rebel forces in Sudan, killing all onboard, including Victor Granov, a Russian businessman with links to the arms dealer, Victor Bout. Granov is reported to have been involved in running two airlines accused of violating the arms embargo in Congo.
- A Russian air force unit has been stood down after a photograph surfaced online showing a message scrawled on a bomb criticising the Russian Ministry of Defence for non-payment of combat bonuses. Jonathan uses this as an example of the cracks that are beginning to show in Russia's war effort, suggesting that there is a great deal of infighting and discontent within the ranks of the armed forces.
- Aptir Laudanov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat special forces, has accused the Russian military of committing 187 crimes in the Kursk region, including murder, rape, looting and various other offences. Jonathan suggests that this is further evidence of the distrust that exists between the Akhmat forces and regular Russian troops.
- There are unverified reports of a fire at a nuclear facility near Tehran.
- The Washington Post claims that John Mark Dugan, a former Florida police officer, has been working with Russian military intelligence to create deep fakes (false videos generated by AI) of prominent American politicians. Jonathan expresses his disbelief that any Westerner could be seduced by the Russian narrative, before going on to say that in the current climate it is becoming increasingly difficult to know what to believe. He concludes by saying that we are in the midst of an epistemic crisis.
Wrap Up
🎦 51:04-52:19⏩
Jonathan reads a comment from a viewer thanking him for his hard work and commenting on how they listen to his videos whilst working. He jokes that he is sorry if he is "living rent free" in his viewers' heads, before going on to thank them for their support and signing off.
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