Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

“The Russians were trolling the Ukrainians. So it's Magyar's birds that are very active, one of the main units around here… and the Russians had taken time on the road to say Magyar write it in white on the road and then insult you know an expletive underneath”

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another Frontline update for 27th March 2024. Jonathan thanks JR for the mapping.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northern Ukraine: RDK Activity

🎦 00:14-01:33⏩

Jonathan discusses the recent RDK incursion into Russia, noting that they have declared victory and pulled back from the border. He ponders whether the incursion was worth it given the equipment lost vs damage inflicted. He concludes that they did succeed in causing a PR headache for the Kremlin just ahead of the elections.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front: Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Attacks

🎦 01:33-08:27⏩

Jonathan reports that there has been no change to the front line in this sector, noting that Ukrainian forces have been successful in repelling Russian attacks. He discusses recent media reports about a build-up of Russian forces in the Kupyansk region, but notes that he has heard similar reports for over a year with little materialising. Jonathan highlights a BBC documentary "Ukraine: Enemy in the woods" featuring combat footage from this sector which includes footage of Ukrainian and Russian casualties. He expresses surprise at the graphic nature of the footage but notes it was likely a conscious decision to show the realities of war. He suggests that viewers watch it if they can. Jonathan cites the ISW's assessment of the front line situation in this sector. He discusses footage showing a Ukrainian counter-attack north of Synkivka. Jonathan highlights the high volume of Russian equipment losses in this sector picked up on recent high-resolution imagery analysed by Andrew Perpetua, noting that as many as one third of vehicles losses were not previously documented. He notes that approximately 10% of visually confirmed equipment losses are later recovered by one side or the other, although it is unclear who is more successful. Jonathan goes on to discuss the situation south of this sector around Terny, reporting that Russian forces have attacked Ukrainian positions, made some initial gains before being pushed back in a Ukrainian counter offensive. He discusses footage of a successful counter attack by the 95th Air Assault Brigade and the 12th Air Assault brigade east of Terny.

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Bakhmut Front: Russian Advances in Bohdanivka and Ivaniske

🎦 08:27-14:48⏩

Jonathan notes that both Andrew Perpetua and Deepstatemap.live are reporting Russian gains around Bohdanivka and Ivaniske. Jonathan highlights the importance of the high ground in this sector which gives a significant advantage to the side that controls it. Jonathan reports that Deepstatemap.live shows Russian forces have taken control of Bohdanivka after Ukrainian forces withdrew and have made small gains northwest of the town. He notes that Andrew Perpetua's mapping update for this sector is more conservative and does not show the Russians in control of the town, but rather making gains just north of Ivaniske, but not yet in control. Jonathan contrasts this with recent conversations with military experts such as Greg Terry who believe that the Ukrainian command have already written this territory off and that it's a matter of time before the Russians take control given the difficult tactical position they are in and lack of resources. Jonathan analyses and geolocates footage from this sector, noting that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack and destroyed Russian equipment east of Bohdanivka but that other footage highlights how Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions right on the edge of the frontline. Jonathan reports that Russian forces have made marginal advances northeast of the canal in the eastern suburb of Chasiv Yar.

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Avdiivka Front: Russian Forces Make Gains North of Avdiivka

🎦 14:48-17:25⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the situation in this sector given the importance of the river and high ground to the west of Avdiivka. He notes that the easiest way to bypass Ukrainian defences is for Russian forces to advance from the north and then south towards Avdiivka, and expresses concern that this is exactly what Deepstatemap.live is showing. He notes that Ukrainian forces successfully pushed Russian forces back in this sector a week ago, but that the lack of natural barriers further east is a cause for concern. Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of the railway line in this sector, which runs north to south and provides an axis of advance. Jonathan discusses Deepstatemap.live, which shows Russian forces entering Berdychi from the east and beginning to cross to the western bank of the river opposite Opytne and south of Semyhirya. He notes that if true, this would pose a serious challenge for Ukrainian forces who would likely have to fall back to more substantial defensive positions around Pervomaiske.

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Donetsk Front: Fighting in Novomykhailivka

🎦 17:25-18:52⏩

Jonathan provides an update from the ISW, which reports positional fighting in this sector. Jonathan discusses Deepstatemap.live which suggests that Russian forces are making gains north of Novomykhailivka and have captured warehouses in the northern part of the town. The ISW is more cautious in its assessment, suggesting that Russian forces are in control of approximately 50% of the town.

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Southern Front: Limited Russian Gains

🎦 18:52-20:09⏩

Jonathan reports that there are no confirmed changes on the Southern Front. However, Deepstatemap.live has made minor updates to the frontline to show Russian gains south of Robotyne. In addition, the Russians have reportedly intensified attacks north west of Vuhledar, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat from some positions. Jonathan notes that this is unlikely to be a significant change on the ground and probably reflects a move of Russian forces into the grey zone.

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Kherson: Russia Forms Dnipro River Flotilla

🎦 20:09-22:05⏩

Jonathan reports that the UK MoD has announced that Russia has formed a new Dnipro River Flotilla to secure waterways and islands in this sector. He speculates as to the purpose of this, given the high concentration of drones in the area, which makes it extremely dangerous to operate on the river. He highlights the recent success of Ukrainian drone units operating in this sector, and discusses a recent incident where a drone operated by Robert Madyar (a Ukrainian drone operator) flew over Russian positions. The Russians had written a message to him in white paint on the road with an insult. Jonathan notes that this highlights the success of his unit, the fear he generates and how much of a mythical figure he has become.

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Kherson: Ukrainian Forces Destroy Russian Command Post

🎦 22:05-23:35⏩

Jonathan discusses footage circulating on social media that shows the destruction of a Russian command post on the left bank of the Dnipro River. The footage shows the building being completely destroyed. It is unclear from the footage whether the weapon was a French made Hammer AASM guided bomb or a US supplied JDAM. Jonathan highlights how effective these weapons are and draws attention to how Russian forces have increased their use of unguided FABs along the frontline and on the northern border, noting that Russia dropped 700 in the past week alone. He laments that it would make a huge difference if Ukraine had access to similar quantities of guided munitions.

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Wrap Up

🎦 23:35-25:10⏩

Jonathan summarises the situation on the battlefield, noting that whilst the Russians are making small gains around Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka, this is coming at a high cost. He reminds viewers that although it’s not good that Ukraine is losing territory, these are small areas. He encourages his viewers to keep the bigger picture in mind - Russia is a long way off achieving its objectives of capturing Odessa and linking up with Transnistria. He finishes by saying that in order to do so, Russia will have to mobilise even more troops, which will be difficult to equip and train. He hopes that Russia continues to pay a high price for its attacks, thanks viewers for watching, reminds them to like, subscribe and share before signing off.

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