Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Zelensky was Time Person of the Year 2022. I don't see Errol bloody Musk being that. So it's just, that's a Russian talking point, to devalue Zelensky on account that he was once a comedian. So what? Who gives a monkey's? It's what he does now, what his achievements are now, and he will go down in history as one of the most effective politicians of the 21st century, without a doubt."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting and dives into the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- The Ukrainian General Staff released figures for Russian losses, showing an uptick in liquidated personnel, possibly due to activity around Bakhmut.
- Jonathan notes these figures are indicative and more accurate than critics claim. Both sides are losing troops, but the ratio is worse for Russia.
- Equipment losses included 4 tanks, 4 APCs, 12 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, 10 drones, 21 cruise missiles, 10 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment.
Overnight Attacks
- Last night, 16 Shahed drones and 3 Kalibr missiles were shot down by Ukrainian air defense.
- However, 6 drones and 3 cruise missiles got through, causing damage to an industrial facility in Kryvyi Rih (injuring 2 people) and critical infrastructure in the Lviv region.
- Jonathan suggests the variation in interception rates (50% for cruise missiles) shows Ukraine provides more accurate figures than just claiming near 100% all the time.
Drone Warfare
- Videos show the effectiveness of Ukrainian "DIY suicide drones" which cost only $350-450 each but can destroy multi-million dollar Russian equipment.
- Thousands are made each month by Ukrainian engineers. They are also being used to target Russian surveillance, electronic warfare and intelligence equipment.
Attacks on Ukraine
- A Russian S300 missile attack on Kharkiv suburb killed 1 civilian, injured 2 others and destroyed/damaged residential buildings.
- S300s are devastating in ground-to-ground mode but inaccurate.
Attacks in Russia
- Saboteurs set fire to 4 railway relay cabinets in Russia, a relatively low-risk but useful action.
- A Ukrainian BMP infantry fighting vehicle was destroyed far behind Russian front lines, showing both sides are losing equipment.
Bakhmut Update
- Russia has committed most reserves to Bakhmut but Ukraine repelled attacks in the city and advanced 0.5-1km on the flanks with large Russian losses.
- Ukrainians are barely holding on in the city itself but making gains on the flanks that would have enabled Russia to take Bakhmut much earlier if the roles were reversed.
- Russia is pulling reserves from other areas like Avdiivka, weakening those fronts.
Patriot Missiles
- CNN reports that in recent weeks, Ukraine used a US-provided Patriot system to shoot down at least one Russian fighter jet, possibly explaining the 5 Russian aircraft lost in Bryansk.
- This is hugely significant as it shows Patriots can reach into Russia and affect Russian air force operations. Russia's furious response in targeting the Patriot (which Ukraine says caused only minor damage) supports this theory.
F-16 Fighter Jets
- Yahoo News reports a US Air Force assessment found Ukrainian pilots could be trained on F-16s in just 4 months, not 18 as the Pentagon claimed.
- This removes another barrier to providing F-16s, along with the US saying it will approve re-export of the jets to Ukraine.
- Issues remain around logistics, maintenance and language skills, but pressure is growing with 14 Congress members urging Biden to unblock F-16 transfers.
Military Aid
- The UK confirmed Ukraine has successfully used British-provided Storm Shadow missiles. Sorties may be a limiting factor more than missile numbers.
- Norway, in cooperation with the UK, is donating 8 MLRS systems and 3 counter-battery radars. The EU is adding €3.5B to its fund for military aid to Ukraine.
- A Pentagon accounting error means $3B more may be available for Ukraine aid than previously thought.
Geopolitics
- Moldova has gone from 100% reliance on Russian gas to 0% in a year, a huge shift for the Russian-influenced nation that wants to join the EU.
- EU natural gas prices hit a nearly 2-year low of under €30/MWh, a "disaster" for Moscow which was relying on high prices.
- The EU likely won't sanction Russian nuclear agency Rosatom as it provides essential services to many EU countries.
- The UK sanctioned 86 Russian individuals and companies and embargoed key Russian commodity imports. The G7 is meeting to discuss Ukraine.
- Germany's opposition is demanding the Wagner PMC be labeled a terrorist group by the EU to curtail its international and Ukrainian activities.
Wrap up
Jonathan ends the video by thanking viewers and encouraging them to like, subscribe and share.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Some of the place names and spellings I was unsure about, like Kryvyi Rih, Avdiivka, Bryansk. A few parts of the transcript were a bit garbled but the overall meaning was clear from context. I wasn't certain about some of the details around the Pentagon accounting error freeing up funds.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Watch the video and read through the transcript to understand the content and flow
Identify the main topics covered in the video and create sections for each
Summarize the key points for each topic, keeping the context and Jonathan's insights
Look for any significant quotes or philosophical points Jonathan makes
Review the summary to ensure all key topics are covered and the information flows logically
Note any parts of the transcript that were unclear or names/places that may need verifying
