Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It infuriates me that people can kind of, you know, whether it be JD Vance, or whether it be, I don't know, Marjorie Teddergreen or whatever, what is going on? Like, I'd love to just sit down with these people and just show them a bunch of stuff. I'd love to take them to Ukraine and just show them a bunch of stuff. Like, I've spoken personally to two sets of Ukrainians who have firsthand experienced war crimes."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:27⏩
Jonathan kicks off with a warm welcome and outlines his busy schedule for the day, including a live stream on German aid to Ukraine, map updates (which have been delayed due to Jonathan being unwell!), and finishing an article about religious belief in the context of war, inspired by an interview with a religious Ukrainian soldier. He apologises in advance if his content schedule is disrupted due to his busy day, but assures viewers it will be released as soon as possible.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Latest Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 01:27-04:01⏩
Jonathan dives into the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses which he describes as "stupendous". He reiterates that although these figures highlight the significant losses inflicted on Russian forces, Ukrainian forces are also facing intense pressure and suffering casualties, particularly around Avdiivka. The losses reported are:
- Personnel: 1130 (exceptionally high)
- Tanks: 13
- Armoured personnel vehicles: 70 (huge number)
- Artillery systems: 53 (phenomenally high)
- MLRS: 4 (good haul given average losses over last 730 days)
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 3 (very good haul)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 56 (exceptionally good - logistics being hammered!)
- Special equipment: 7
Good News - Russian Airframe Losses
🎦 04:01-05:23⏩
Jonathan enthusiastically reports the downing of another Russian jet - this time a Su-34 (the crew of which Jonathan bids "eternal flight"). A Su-35 narrowly escaped by performing evasive manoeuvres - a stroke of luck according to Jonathan, who quips "that Su-35 pilot was lucky he maneuvered and no longer takes risks". This brings total Russian fixed-wing airframe losses to seven in just four days, a serious problem for the Russians. Jonathan emphasises that this represents a loss of experienced pilots which are more difficult to replace than aircraft.
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Ukrainian Airframe Losses
🎦 05:23-06:11⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a downed Ukrainian Mi-17 V5 helicopter (a former Afghan helicopter provided by the US to Ukraine in 2022).
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Ukrainian Forces Repel Large-Scale Russian Assault near Avdiivka
🎦 06:11-06:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a large armoured convoy of Russian forces to the East of Laskochkyrna, West of Avdiivka. This has resulted in the repulsion of a large-scale assault in the area, although fighting continues in the area of the village. Jonathan notes that the Russians are taking significant losses but are determined to make progress.
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65 Russian Personnel Killed in Strike East of Volnovakha
🎦 06:56-08:20⏩
Jonathan reports on another strike, this time with visually confirmed footage. A training ground East of Volnovakha was hit by (what is believed to be) HIMARS resulting in the deaths of at least 65 Russian personnel.
- Location: Trudovske, 10km East of Volnovakha
- Target: Military training ground used by the 39th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
- Casualties: Preliminary figures indicate 65 Russian personnel killed
- Video Evidence: Footage shows numerous dead bodies and the aftermath of the strike
The Importance of Visually Confirmed Footage
🎦 08:20-09:05⏩
Jonathan stresses the importance of verified footage in confirming reports and dispelling any doubts surrounding such incidents, highlighting the footage of the HIMARS strike and the destroyed Russian column as evidence.
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Russian Missile and Drone Strikes Overnight
🎦 09:05-11:45⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the overnight strikes by Russia:
- Missiles and drones were used
- 13 out of 19 drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defences (6 got through)
- 1 out of 1 Kh-59 cruise missiles was intercepted (100% success rate)
- None of the Kh-22 missiles were intercepted
- Several S-300 missiles (surface to air missiles used in ground attack mode) were launched - damage assessment is ongoing.
- Repeated explosions were reported in Druzhkivka, 10km from Kramatorsk, which was also hit yesterday.
- Kramatorsk has been subjected to heavy shelling over the last week, resulting in damage to water facilities and shortages of fresh water.
- Jonathan highlights the crescent of settlements that the Russians appear to be focusing their efforts on, including: Turetsk, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Lyman, Sievieresk and Chasiv Yar - all have experienced heavy shelling and are subject to unwanted attention.
Alexei Navalny's Wife's Twitter Account Briefly Suspended
🎦 14:19-17:31⏩
Jonathan discusses the brief suspension of Yulia Navalnaya's Twitter account and the subsequent accusations of censorship levelled at Elon Musk. He highlights a tweet from Tim White expressing concern over the proliferation of bots and troll farms on Twitter, citing it as either a deliberate ploy by Musk or a consequence of staff firings. Jonathan provides an example of a troll account on Twitter, explaining the distinction between trolls (humans) and bots (automated accounts). He urges viewers to be cautious of their online activity and learn how to spot such accounts.
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Russian Telegram Propagandist Commits Suicide After Being Censored
🎦 17:40-19:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the alleged suicide of Russian Telegram propagandist, Andrei Murazov (callsign: "Mors") who reportedly took his own life after being forced to delete a post about heavy Russian casualties in Avdiivka. Murazov had claimed that Russian forces had lost 16,000 men in the battle for Avdiivka, a figure that apparently led to his post being removed. Jonathan expresses his skepticism regarding the circumstances surrounding Murazov's death.
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US Citizen Arrested in Russia for $51 Donation to Ukrainian Charity
🎦 19:28-20:40⏩
Jonathan reports the arrest of a US dual national in Russia for allegedly donating $51 to a Ukrainian charity, facing charges of treason that carry a potential 20-year prison sentence. Jonathan condemns this action and highlights the absurdity of this situation, particularly when considering the presence of trolls and propagandists online.
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Jonathan's Frustration with Pro-Russian Sentiment in the West
🎦 20:40-23:13⏩
Jonathan expresses his frustration with the lack of action from American and European leaders in response to the situation in Ukraine. He criticizes the calls for peace negotiations without acknowledging the reality of Russian aggression. He questions how politicians can remain silent or advocate for appeasement in the face of overwhelming evidence of war crimes and human rights abuses.
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Further Evidence of Russian War Crimes
🎦 21:45-24:27⏩
Jonathan cites more evidence of Russian war crimes, including two videos depicting the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Robotina. He highlights the disturbing trend of such incidents, questioning how anyone, particularly those in the West who advocate for Russia, can ignore such atrocities. He refers to an interview with Yevgeny Balitsky, the Russian-installed governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, who openly admitted to the forced deportation of Ukrainians (a war crime) and hinted at executions of pro-Ukrainian citizens in Melitopol. Jonathan highlights the fact that such war crimes are being admitted to openly by Russians, and that there is substantial video evidence to support these claims. He questions how anyone can deny these atrocities are taking place.
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Zelensky Maintains Public Support Amidst War
🎦 24:27-25:38⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent poll indicating that the majority of Ukrainians support President Zelensky remaining in office for the duration of martial law, with elections postponed until after the conflict. This demonstrates a belief in his leadership during this critical time, opting for stability over potential disruption a change in leadership could bring. It remains to be seen whether Zelensky will seek re-election in peacetime, given his experiences during the war.
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Budanov: Russia Lacks Strength for Strategic Goals in 2024
🎦 25:38-28:26⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to an interview with Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, who asserts that Russia lacks the military capacity to achieve its goal of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2024. Key takeaways from Budanov's interview:
- Russian Professional Army Decimated: The first year of the invasion decimated a large proportion of the professional Russian army, forcing them to rely heavily on untrained conscripts.
- Unsustainable Artillery Usage: Russia is consuming artillery shells at a rate exceeding its production capacity.
- Limited Mobilisation Capacity: While concerning, Russia's ability to mobilize troops is limited to approximately 30,000 per month.
- Depleted Missile Stockpiles: Recent weeks have seen a decline in missile attacks, suggesting a depletion of Russian missile stockpiles, a view that aligns with Jonathan's analysis.
Russian Volunteer Corps Planned Daring Raid to Free Navalny
🎦 28:26-29:02⏩
Jonathan concludes the news section with an intriguing revelation about the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) who have been fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. The RDK, supervised by Ukrainian GUR chief Budanov, had devised an elaborate plan to free imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny from his penal colony. They even managed to obtain transcripts of Navalny's conversations and internal documents but the plan did not come to fruition.
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Wrap Up
🎦 29:02-29:12⏩
Jonathan expresses gratitude for viewers' continued support, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He gives a special thank you to his members for their generous contributions.
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