Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Seeing Putin Double, Sacks & Mearsheimer, & Fleeing Russians
Table of Contents 📖
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"Putin definitely looks very different. Is that just aging? Is he on steroids from being ill with some kind of illness? Does that explain all of this?"
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces this as an extra Ukraine war update video with some additional nuggets and tidbits to provide a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine. He mentions he has already done another extra video today analyzing data on Russian losses provided by a viewer.
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Why are people leaving Russia?
Jonathan discusses a BBC article about Russians leaving the country, both before and after the Ukraine invasion. Key points:
- Russians were already leaving before 2022 due to disagreements with Moscow's policies and laws restricting dissent
- The 2022 invasion was a turning point, with many leaving because they were against the war and felt isolated/at risk
- A second wave left due to mobilization, to avoid being sent to the front lines
- Estimates of 600K to 1.3M Russians left in 2022
- It's relatively easy to leave Russia if you have money and haven't been drafted, but hard to find a permanent place to stay
- Many countries have made it difficult for Russians to get visas unless they have family there or are traveling for work
- The economic impact is evident with companies facing staff shortages, especially of highly skilled professionals
Mobilization in Novosibirsk Region
Jonathan shares a thread by Chris Owicki about mobilization in a single district in Russia's Novosibirsk region:
- Nearly 4% of the entire population was sent to the Ukraine war
- The former district head reportedly mobilized anyone "who crossed her path", angering residents who smeared her car with feces in protest
- The district mobilized around 10% of those mobilized from the entire region
- Even men over 50 who were supposed to be exempt were mobilized
- Mobilized men are only allowed leave in groups to ensure they return, with commanders saying no one else can go if some don't come back
- Coffins of dead soldiers from the district have been arriving regularly since Jan 2023
Does Putin have a body double?
Jonathan ponders whether Putin uses body doubles, showing side-by-side images where Putin looks quite different. He wonders if it could be explained by aging, steroids, illness, or if there really are different people standing in for Putin at times. While acknowledging much of it could be nonsense, he points out some of the older images of Putin do look like a distinctly different person. He's unsure but finds it an intriguing question and asks for viewers' opinions.
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Debunking Mearsheimer's Views on Ukraine
Jonathan analyzes a thread by Timothy Milovanov responding to David Sacks sharing John Mearsheimer's controversial views on the Ukraine war. Milovanov rebuts Mearsheimer's key points:
- Russia is not clearly winning in 2023 - their mobilization has produced no results other than gaining Bakhmut at a high cost
- Resolve is strong among the entire Ukrainian population while only the Kremlin is resolved in Russia
- While Russia has a larger population, as an empire it has suppressed people who may not unite behind Putin and the war
- Artillery is important but precision, attack drones, electronic warfare also key - Ukraine has advantage here
- Evidence shows Russia is doing frontal assaults and taking heavy losses, not Ukraine
- It's delusional to think Russia can take Kharkiv, Odesa - they should focus on keeping Belgorod and Crimea
- Nuclear powers can lose wars, as the US in Vietnam and Russia in Afghanistan show
Jonathan sees Milovanov's rebuttals as a firm response to Mearsheimer and Sacks' problematic arguments.
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Smartphone Saves Soldier's Life
Jonathan jokes about a smartphone saving a soldier's life, saying you could place them all over your body for protection, although you might be buzzing at night. He says it's good news the soldier's life was saved by the phone.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and concludes the extra update video covering various topics to think about related to the Ukraine war. He appreciates the audience and will be back with more videos soon.
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