Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - More Revenge for Sumy
Table of Contents 📖
"Do you not look at history? We've not seen the last 20 years."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 16th April 2025. He will start with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Russian Loss Report (15/04/2025)
🎦 00:19-01:28⏩
* Jonathan notes a significant downtick in reported personnel losses: 1,050, down from the recent 1,200-1,400 range.
- Tanks: 9 (average).
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 13 (below average).
- Artillery Systems: 87 (massive number, indicating continued successful counter-battery fire, likely including heavy mortars).
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 133 (typically high).
- Special Equipment: 3.
- Drones: 146 (fairly high).
- Jonathan finds it difficult to interpret the mix of high and low numbers across categories but notes activity continues.
Update on Andrew Perpetua Loss List Analysis
🎦 01:36-01:46⏩
* Jonathan plans to go through the backlog of Andrew Perpetua's loss list later today for viewers who appreciate the detailed breakdown.
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Breaking News: Russian Attempt to Hack US National Labor Relations Board
🎦 01:46-02:09⏩
* Jonathan is about to release a breaking news piece on an attempted Russian hack, potentially via 'Doge' (unclear reference, maybe a specific group/method?), targeting the US National Labor Relations Board.
- He expresses concern about the implications for American citizens.
UK Intelligence: Russia Lost 138,000 Troops in 2025; Total Over 920,000
🎦 02:14-04:08⏩
* Andrew Perpetua's loss list is not available today.
- UK Intelligence analysis estimates (with 55-75% probability) that Russia has lost 138,000 troops in 2025 alone.
- Daily casualties reportedly rose to 1,300 in March, reflecting renewed Russian offensives.
- The UK Defence Ministry's estimate of total Russian losses since the invasion began (over 920,000) aligns closely with Ukrainian claims.
- Jonathan reflects on why other intelligence agencies might find it difficult to significantly differ from Ukrainian figures, as Ukraine likely collates data from numerous units providing visual evidence (drone strikes, etc.). He believes Ukraine holds the key to these numbers, though other nations might make minor adjustments.
Russian Soldier Kills Four Comrades in Donetsk
🎦 04:08-05:04⏩
* A report indicates a Russian soldier from the 120th Artillery Brigade shot four fellow servicemen in Donetsk on 4th April, killing three and wounding another.
- The incident occurred at 5 o'clock at a specific address involving a serviceman from the same brigade. Jonathan notes this adds to the Russian loss list.
Footage Shows 'Road of Death' with Destroyed Vehicles in Belgorod
🎦 05:34-06:36⏩
* Jonathan shares video footage described as another "road of death," this time located in Russia's Belgorod region.
- The source claims the number of burnt vehicles doubled in one day, and the source's own car eventually burned down.
- The footage shows numerous destroyed vehicles, many appearing civilian (potentially used by the military), hit by presumed FPV drone strikes.
- Jonathan highlights this as significant due to the lack of information usually coming out of Belgorod.
Ukrainian Success Near Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk
🎦 06:38-07:21⏩
* Reports suggest Ukraine has regained control of a village near Velyka Novosilka in southern Donetsk (possibly Urozhaine or similar area - location 'Dnipro and Heria' mentioned in transcript is unclear).
- In the same area (Vesely Skudnye - unclear location, assumed nearby), Ukrainians reportedly repelled a massive Russian assault, destroying around 100 soldiers, 4 tanks, and 9 infantry fighting vehicles.
Two Russian Borisoglebsk-2 EW Systems (Valued at $400m) Destroyed
🎦 07:23-08:19⏩
* The Ukrainian Southern Defence Forces destroyed two Russian Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare (EW) systems.
- RBC Ukraine reports these systems cost approximately $200 million each, totalling $400 million for the two destroyed.
- Jonathan expresses some scepticism about the high cost, humorously describing the system as looking like "an MTLB with a TV aerial thrown on top," but acknowledges the significance if the valuation is accurate.
Ukrainian MiG-29 Destroys Russian Building with Guided Bomb
🎦 08:20-08:39⏩
* Footage shows a Ukrainian MiG-29 using a guided glide bomb to destroy a building reportedly housing Russian personnel and ammunition.
- Jonathan notes the increasing amount of such footage from Ukraine but reminds viewers Russia uses far more glide bombs.
Russia Intensifies Glide Bomb Attacks on Central Kherson
🎦 08:47-10:19⏩
* Russian forces launched airstrikes on Kherson using guided glide bombs, hitting the central district.
- Tim White notes that while drone attacks are problematic, the "ceaseless dropping" of glide bombs is a bigger issue, destroying large areas of the front line.
- An ice rink and arena in Kherson were destroyed this morning.
- Jonathan describes these attacks as "terrorism" targeting civilian infrastructure. He argues that Kherson city itself has few overt military targets due to its proximity to the river and considers every attack on the city a war crime.
- He mentions the work of Zarina Zabriskie and Brendan Kelly in documenting these attacks.
Russian Sources Complain of Drone Disadvantage Compared to Ukraine
🎦 10:19-11:43⏩
* Chris O'Wiki highlights Russian sources complaining about a "systemic and extremely acute" problem with drone supply and capability.
- A soldier from a motorised rifle regiment states they are still relying on off-the-shelf DJI Mavics sourced via humanitarian aid/personal channels ("a drop in the ocean"), while Ukraine has advanced significantly.
- Ukrainian capabilities mentioned include aerial repeaters, attack drones working in pairs/trios, remote detonation, and FPV ranges up to 20km.
- The Russian soldier feels they are stuck where they were a year ago and urgently need to catch up, describing the problem as systemic and critical across the front.
Russians Report Ukrainian Use of 'Mother Drones' Extending FPV Range
🎦 11:45-13:17⏩
* Another Russian source ('Archangel of Special Forces') reports a new problem in the Kursk direction: Ukrainian use of "mother drones."
- These are large UAVs equipped with mounts for FPV drones.
- The mother drone flies 20-50km into Russian rear areas before releasing the smaller FPV drones to conduct strikes, significantly increasing their effective range.
- This tactic is reportedly becoming more common in the Kursk area.
- The source draws a parallel to Ukrainian naval drones (like Magura V5) launching aerial drones to strike coastal areas of Crimea.
- The source expresses urgency for Russia to catch up, fearing "huge problems" as Ukraine expands the use of such tactics.
Reported Ammunition Detonations During House Fire in Rylsk, Kursk
🎦 13:28-14:51⏩
* Jonathan discusses a fire in Rylsk (Kursk Oblast), which Russian authorities reportedly claimed was just a house fire.
- Video shows repeated detonations, suggesting ammunition or other volatile materials were stored there. Source Tim White notes the timing of the video is unknown.
- Rylsk was previously identified as a Russian staging area (command/control, troop concentrations) and hit by Ukrainian munitions like HIMARS.
- Jonathan speculates whether the new 'mother drone' capability could be responsible for reaching Rylsk.
Ukrainian Forces Enter Belgorod; Russia Planning Sumy/Chernihiv Attacks
🎦 14:51-15:41⏩
* MAKS24, quoting Ukrainian People's Deputy Kostenko, reports that Ukrainian forces (AFU) have entered the Belgorod region.
- The stated goal is to draw Russian reserves away from the Kursk and Kharkiv directions.
- Over 13 sq km in Belgorod region are reportedly now in the "grey zone". Jonathan notes this is the first news about Belgorod he's heard in a while.
- The report also mentions Ukraine regaining control near Velyka Novosilka (referred to as 'Dnipro and Irkutsk' in transcript - likely misheard/mistranscribed, see previous topic) and improving tactical positions in two critical directions.
- It claims Russia is preparing to attack the Sumy and Chernihiv regions to gain leverage for potential negotiations.
Russia Launches 97 Drones Overnight; 91 Intercepted
🎦 15:45-16:45⏩
* Russia launched 97 Shahed-type drones overnight (15th-16th April), higher than recent nights and approaching previous peaks around 100.
- This high number might explain the 146 drones reported destroyed in the General Staff figures (which cover parts of two nights).
- Interceptions: 57 shot down, 34 neutralised by electronic warfare, totalling 91 out of 97.
- Result: Only 6 drones got through (approx. 6% penetration rate). Jonathan notes this is better than some recent nights but still not the 95-100% interception rates seen previously.
Russian Drones Damage Civilian Infrastructure in Odesa
🎦 16:45-17:07⏩
* Russia conducted a massive drone attack on Odesa overnight.
- Shahed drones damaged civilian infrastructure, residential buildings, and warehouses.
- Three people were reported injured. A resident is quoted saying they were saved by being in a windowless room.
Ukraine Strikes Second Russian Missile Brigade (112th) Linked to Sumy Attack
🎦 17:07-19:40⏩
* Following the previous day's strike on the 448th Missile Brigade, Ukraine appears to have targeted another unit linked to the deadly Iskander missile attack on Sumy (which killed 35 civilians).
- Last night, Ukrainian drones struck the city of Shuya in Ivanovo Oblast, targeting infrastructure linked to Russia's 112th Missile Brigade. (Source: Astra, independent Russian media).
- Jonathan shares footage reportedly showing the drone strikes:
- One video shows a large drone impacting.
- Another claims a "double drone strike", showing an initial explosion followed by a second impact causing thick black smoke (possibly hitting oil/fuel). Jonathan speculates the drone might be a Lyutyi type or larger.
- This suggests Ukraine is systematically targeting the units responsible for the Sumy attack in retaliation.
Sumy Military Head Dismissed After Controversial Awards Ceremony Preceding Russian Strike
🎦 19:41-22:03⏩
* Jonathan addresses criticism he received for reporting on claims that the Russian missile strike on Sumy targeted a military awards ceremony. He emphasizes his commitment to reporting truth, including information from Ukrainian sources.
- President Zelenskyy has now dismissed Volodymyr Artyukh, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration.
- Suspilna (Ukrainian media outlet) reports that Artyukh essentially confirmed the awards ceremony took place before the strike but denied initiating it.
- Previously, MP Mariana Bezuhla, former MP Ihor Mosiychuk (?), and Konotop Mayor Artem Semenykhin had claimed Artyukh organised the event for the 117th Brigade.
- Jonathan reiterates his condemnation of the Russian strike which killed civilians, calling it "disgusting". However, he stresses the need for Ukraine to learn lessons about operational security and avoid holding such gatherings in vulnerable locations. He clarifies this is not excusing Russia's indiscriminate attack with inaccurate missiles on a city.
Decline in Russian Oil Export Earnings
🎦 22:10-23:16⏩
* Bloomberg reports Russia's oil earnings have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2023.
- Crude exports slid for a third consecutive week.
- Four-week average flows from Russian ports fell to 3.13 million barrels per day, the lowest since February 2023. (Jonathan initially misreads the year but corrects himself).
- He hopes this trend continues due to sanctions and a potential global recession impacting prices.
Four Journalists Jailed in Russia for Alleged Links to Navalny Foundation
🎦 23:20-23:58⏩
* Highlighting the lack of freedom in Russia, Jonathan reports that four journalists have been jailed over alleged work with Alexei Navalny's foundation (designated extremist by Russia).
- The journalists are Antonina Favorskaya, Artem Kryger, Sergei Karelin, and Konstantin Gabov. Gabov was reportedly producing video content for Navalny-affiliated YouTube channels.
- Jonathan comments sarcastically on Russian "freedom and liberty," stating Russia is a dictatorship with no interest in freedom, and anyone arguing otherwise is a "fool."
Russia Reinstates Dismissed General Popov Amid High Officer Losses
🎦 23:59-26:51⏩
* A retired US colonel/diplomat suggests Putin is reinstating fired generals due to high losses among senior officers.
- This refers to Major General Ivan Popov, former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army in southern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson Oblasts).
- Popov was highly respected by his troops but was dismissed after sending a voice note criticising senior leadership (likely Valery Gerasimov) for "decapitating the army" during a critical time (Summer 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive).
- He was subsequently investigated for fraud (allegedly selling scrap metal, possibly to fund his troops). Prosecutors sought a six-year sentence. He was initially sent to Syria, then arrested in May.
- Last week, Russian media reported Popov requested to return to active duty instead of facing prison, and the MoD agreed.
- Jonathan sees Popov's reinstatement, despite his previous outspoken criticism, as a sign of desperation within the Russian military command.
Russian Media Celebrates US Policy Shifts and NATO Divisions
🎦 27:00-28:34⏩
* BBC's Steve Rosenberg reports on Russian newspaper reactions to recent US political developments. Edward Hunter Christie comments on the report.
- Russian elites are portrayed as "absolutely delighted" by the US's new direction under Trump.
- One paper states: "Soviet leaders' dream of driving a wedge between the European part of NATO and the US has come true" (referring to potential US defunding of NATO).
- Another paper states: "Trump is destroying the world created by US liberals. The changes in the global system serve Russia's interests."
- Jonathan emphasizes that the Russians themselves are openly stating that current US actions are exactly what they hoped for, even during the Cold War.
White House Suggests Economic Partnership Could Incentivise Peace
🎦 28:40-30:18⏩
* White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested that economic partnerships with the US could be an incentive for Russia to end the war.
- Jonathan reacts with incredulity, comparing this to Angela Merkel's earlier policy of trying to change Russia through economic integration ('Wandel durch Handel'), which he argues ultimately failed, leading to the current situation.
- He criticises the apparent failure to learn from the past 20 years of Putin's actions. He personally doesn't blame Merkel for trying the initial approach but believes the lesson has been learned and shouldn't be repeated.
US Treasury Secretary Nears Decision on US-Russia Minerals Deal
🎦 30:18-30:28⏩
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a US-Russia minerals deal could be signed very soon, stating both parties are "very close to a final decision."
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US Quietly Reduces Ukraine Aid Repayment Estimate from $300bn to $100bn
🎦 30:28-31:14⏩
* Bloomberg reports the US has quietly scaled back its aid repayment demands from Ukraine in recent talks regarding a potential minerals deal.
- The estimated value of aid to be repaid has been lowered from ~$300 billion (a figure Trump often cited) to ~$100 billion.
- The deal structure still apparently aims to recover aid costs via profits from a fund, with the US insisting wartime expenses count as contributions.
- Jonathan expresses disgust at any deal resembling repayment for military aid.
Trump Advisors Divided on Russia's Willingness to Negotiate Peace
🎦 31:15-31:41⏩
* Reports indicate Trump's senior advisors are split on whether Russia is genuinely willing to negotiate an end to the war.
- Some (like Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg) urge scepticism.
- Another (Steve Witkoff) reportedly believes Putin wants peace.
Ukraine's Stratcom Centre Criticises US Envoy Witkoff's Pro-Kremlin Narratives
🎦 31:42-32:51⏩
* Tim White shares a quote from Ukraine's official Stratcom Centre responding to US envoy Steve Witkoff's recent statements.
- Stratcom expresses concern that Witkoff appears to be "amplifying verbatim Kremlin narratives."
- They condemn the suggestion that Ukraine should cede five regions (some not even occupied) for "so-called peace," calling it a repetition of lies used during previous Russian aggressions (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, Donbas).
- The statement argues appeasement only emboldens Putin, while deterrence works, and Witkoff's proposed "solution" would guarantee a larger European war if Russia consolidates gains in Ukraine.
- Jonathan calls Witkoff's Fox News interview naive.
Reports: Some Trump Aides Frustrated with European Aid to Ukraine
🎦 32:58-33:55⏩
* Diplomats in Washington report that some Trump aides privately express frustration with European allies strengthening Ukraine.
- Jonathan speculates figures like Stephen Miller might hold these views, expressing strong personal disdain for Miller.
- Quoting The Economist, he notes the difficulty in distinguishing "true signal from the noise" in such a chaotic administration, calling the overall US situation "really, really worrying."
UEFA Refuses Silence for Sumy Victims; Ukraine/Romania Futsal Players Defy Ban
🎦 34:04-35:21⏩
* Jonathan reports fury in Ukraine directed at UEFA (European Football Association).
- UEFA refused Kyiv's request for a moment's silence before a Ukraine vs. Romania futsal (indoor football) match to remember the victims of the Sumy missile strike.
- In defiance of the ban, players from both Ukraine and Romania stopped the match immediately after kickoff to hold their own moment of silence.
- Jonathan praises the players' actions ("Well done to both sides. That's brilliant. Lovely from Romania there as well.") and criticises UEFA ("two fingers up to you, UEFA, you bunch of numpties.").
Viewer Gogil Inspired to Join Irish Convoy Delivering Vehicles to Ukraine
🎦 35:21-37:17⏩
* Jonathan reads a comment from viewer "Gogil," who was inspired by Jonathan's visits to Ukraine.
- Gogil is preparing to participate in an Irish convoy delivering 16 vehicles (mainly Jeeps/4x4s, plus ambulances/minibuses) to Western Ukraine.
- The vehicles are being filled with generators, first aid, tyres, medical supplies, etc.
- Gogil expresses nervousness about the long journey but feels compelled to act after feeling helpless watching the horrors inflicted by Russia.
- Jonathan finds this "wonderful" and "absolutely brilliant."
Jonathan Reflects on Viewer Action, Agency, and Collective Impact
🎦 37:17-38:00⏩
* Reacting to Gogil's message, Jonathan reflects on the feeling of powerlessness when faced with large geopolitical events.
- He emphasizes the need for an outlet to feel agency and power. His own trips to Ukraine helped him feel more connected, involved, and impactful.
- He stresses that while individual actions might seem small, "lots of little somethings make a big thing."
- He acknowledges not everyone can undertake such journeys but commends viewers for watching, caring, talking about the situation, and keeping awareness high – which is the very least people can do.
Wrap up
🎦 38:00-38:58⏩
* Jonathan thanks viewers and says he will get on with his other content.
- He mentions (having previously mentioned it on a video with no sound) that he thoroughly enjoyed seeing the touring production of the musical Hamilton in Southampton recently.
- He praises Lin-Manuel Miranda's work (choreography, lyrics, music).
- He found the themes of the American founding, democracy, and power relevant to both Ukraine's struggle and the current situation in the United States, calling it a very timely play.
- He signs off.