Breaking News Ukraine War: New Amazing Operation Spiderweb Footage Released! More Damaged Planes.
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Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00-00:29⏩ |
| 2 | Operation Spiderweb: Initial Claims and Satellite Imagery Limitations | 00:30-01:21⏩ |
| 3 | Confirmed Drone Hits on Russian A-50 AWACS Aircraft | 01:22-03:07⏩ |
| 4 | SBU Released Footage of Operation Spiderweb | 03:07-06:35⏩ |
| 5 | Analysis of SBU Footage and Confirmed Aircraft Hits | 06:35-07:29⏩ |
| 6 | Operation Spiderweb: Success Across Multiple Airbases | 07:31-08:04⏩ |
| 7 | NATO Assessment of Operation Spiderweb's Success | 08:06-08:38⏩ |
| 8 | Damage Assessment of A-50 AWACS Aircraft and Radar Domes | 08:47-10:09⏩ |
| 9 | Drone Detonation Issues and A-50 Vulnerability | 10:10-12:12⏩ |
| 10 | Media Confirmation and Irreplaceability of Russian A-50s | 12:13-13:40⏩ Return to top⤴️
Return to top⤴️ Tu-95 Loaded with KH-101 Missiles Destroyed at Olenia |
| 12 | Overall Assessment: Significant Damage Despite Detonation Failures | 14:11-15:05⏩ |
| 13 | Wrap up | 15:05-15:08⏩ |
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics "Breaking News Ukraine War" update.
- The video focuses on new footage released by the SBU regarding Operation Spiderweb strikes.
- Jonathan notes the confusion surrounding claims of damaged/destroyed planes due to conflicting satellite imagery and varying cloud cover or partial base coverage.
Operation Spiderweb: Initial Claims and Satellite Imagery Limitations
🎦 00:30-01:21⏩
- Early claims suggested at least two A-50 AWACS aircraft were damaged.
- Security analysts Jimmy Rushton (in Kyiv) and Michael Weiss reported seeing unreleased SBU drone attack footage, confirming at least two A-50s were struck by drones.
- Jonathan questions the claim that FPV drones landed directly on radar domes before detonating, suggesting some drones might not have exploded, or the aircraft's tyres could have offered some protection.
- He also highlights that satellite images aren't always conclusive or consistent with the number of drone hits.
- Jonathan's assessment is that more damage was done than initially thought, but likely less than the SBU's broader claims (e.g., 41 airplanes damaged/destroyed, potentially corresponding to 41 drones launched, but not necessarily 41 successful detonations).
Confirmed Drone Hits on Russian A-50 AWACS Aircraft
🎦 01:22-03:07⏩
- Michael Weiss further confirmed seeing footage of Ukrainian FPVs hitting two Russian A-50s, stating this "confirms scuttlebutt from SBU that they knackered two irreplaceable Soviet-era early warning and control aircraft."
- Weiss noted Russia only had six A-50s, implying now only four. Jonathan remains cautious about this exact number, pending more conclusive satellite imagery.
- Jonathan prepares to show the "pretty incredible video" from the SBU.
SBU Released Footage of Operation Spiderweb
🎦 03:07-06:35⏩
- Jonathan plays the newly released SBU footage showcasing the drone attacks.
Analysis of SBU Footage and Confirmed Aircraft Hits
🎦 06:35-07:29⏩
- Reacting to the footage, Jonathan notes its extensive nature but cannot confirm the exact airbase(s) it was taken from without more information.
- The SBU footage reportedly shows hits on 22 aircraft: 7 Tu-95s, 12 Tu-22M3s, 2 A-50 AWACS, 1 An-12, and 1 Il-78M.
- He points out a discrepancy: while the footage showed 7 Tu-95 hits, satellite images indicated 8 Tu-95 strategic bombers were destroyed, meaning the SBU footage is not exhaustive of all affected aircraft.
- Jonathan reiterates his skepticism that all drones definitely exploded, stating he is "fairly sure, but I don't know."
Operation Spiderweb: Success Across Multiple Airbases
🎦 07:31-08:04⏩
- Jonathan clarifies that the SBU footage appears to be compiled from all four affected Russian airbases: Dagilevo, Ivanovo, Olenia, and Belaya.
- He notes that high-resolution footage from Olenia previously showed some planes had "properly disintegrated."
- Overall, Jonathan describes the mission as an "incredibly successful mission all round."
NATO Assessment of Operation Spiderweb's Success
🎦 08:06-08:38⏩
- NATO has assessed the SBU operation against Russian strategic aviation airfields as "very successful."
- A NATO representative told EP (European Pravda) that "at least 40 aircraft were damaged."
- Jonathan questions if "damaged" means "hit by drones" or actual significant damage.
- NATO also stated that "10 to 13 aircraft were completely destroyed."
- Jonathan concludes that determining the full extent of damage requires a combination of satellite imagery and video feeds.
Damage Assessment of A-50 AWACS Aircraft and Radar Domes
🎦 08:47-10:09⏩
- Clash Report indicated at least one Russian A-50 AWACS was damaged at Ivanovo Air Base, citing a "small dot on the dome" in satellite imagery.
- Jonathan questions how much damage a "small dot" on the radar dome constitutes, given the A-50's radar dome is crucial for its role in detecting and tracking targets at long ranges.
- He expresses concern about the conclusiveness of such low-resolution satellite images to determine significant damage to these sensitive instruments.
Drone Detonation Issues and A-50 Vulnerability
🎦 10:10-12:12⏩
- Jonathan analyses specific drone footage, observing a drone landing on an A-50's dome without an immediate explosion, suggesting a potential lag or failed detonation.
- He discusses different fuse mechanisms, like the front-loaded fuses seen on FPVs attacking tanks, and also mentions the possibility of remote detonation.
- Despite the SBU's "Bye-bye, Liz, A50. What a humiliation" caption, Jonathan cautions that the footage doesn't definitively prove the destruction or non-destruction of the A-50s in those specific instances.
Media Confirmation and Irreplaceability of Russian A-50s
- Jonathan references a Daily Telegraph article titled "Ukraine strikes Putin's prized spy planes," confirming the damage to at least two of Russia's rare A-50 surveillance aircraft in the drone attack on the strategic bomber fleet.
- The article noted that one drone clearly hit the radar dome of an A-50, which was protected by sandbags across its wings. Another A-50, shielded by tyres, also appeared to be hit.
- Jonathan highlights that while A-50s are expensive (reportedly $274 million), their true value lies in their irreplaceability, as Russia cannot build new ones. These Soviet-era aircraft, in service since 1985, are "incredibly important," and Russia had only six operational, now possibly fewer.
Tu-95 Loaded with KH-101 Missiles Destroyed at Olenia
🎦 13:40-14:10⏩
- A significant "nugget" from the video is that at least one Tu-95 at Olenia was destroyed while loaded with KH-101 cruise missiles.
- Jonathan explains that aircraft are loaded with missiles very close to mission departure, confirming that these planes were about to undertake a mission. This implies the strike was a successful "in the nick of time" operation.
Overall Assessment: Significant Damage Despite Detonation Failures
🎦 14:11-15:05⏩
- Another Null Reports entry confirms the SBU footage showing FPV drone strikes on 22 aircraft. It suggests the actual damage might be higher, though many strikes lack aftermath footage, potentially due to limited damage or failed detonations.
- Jonathan reiterates his belief that "failed detonations" are a key factor influencing the final damage count.
- Despite the uncertainties, he views the outcome as "fascinating footage" and "great that there's more damage coming out."
- He estimates that the number of damaged and destroyed airframes is "definitely creeping up to around the 20 mark," which he considers "excellent news."
- Even if the total isn't the SBU's claimed 41, hitting around 20 airframes is a "really, really successful mission," albeit frustrating to see so many planes lined up without all of them being hit.
- He praises the mission as "incredible" and "really well executed."
Wrap up
🎦 15:05-15:08⏩
- Jonathan concludes the update and signs off, promising to speak to the audience soon.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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