Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This should be met with a massive rebuttal from the US in my books. This is pretty terrible, especially when it's coming from, you know, yes, you could say it's propaganda coming through the media, but if it's sanctioned by the Russian state, and if it's coming from the mouths of people like Patrushev, I don't know that article is from Patrushev, then I think the US is justified in answering, but of course, they're going to be worrying about escalation."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News update, the first part for 27th March 2024. He begins with a look at the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses for the day before.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Jonathan discusses the accuracy of Russian battlefield loss figures
🎦 00:17-01:17⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that the Russian battlefield loss statistics are unreliable and gives examples as to why. He explains that he will be using figures released by the Ukrainian general staff instead as these are likely to be more accurate over the course of the war.
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Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses for 26th March 2024
🎦 01:17-02:18⏩
Jonathan notes that Russian personnel losses are difficult to assess due to the guesstimations used. He observes that the reported Russian losses for 26th March (1030) are higher than the previous few days. He speculates that this points to heavier fighting and analyses the figures for different equipment types - noting that 11 tanks destroyed represents a significant loss. Jonathan makes the point that in order for Ukraine to win the war, they will need to inflict a loss ratio of at least 3:1 on Russian forces.
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Jonathan and Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss figures
🎦 02:18-07:31⏩
Jonathan presents Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss data. He notes that the Ukrainians have inflicted considerably more equipment losses on the Russians. He highlights the loss of a P-18 Malachite radar system as a blow for the Ukrainians as well as a Marder IFV which appears to have been captured intact by Russian forces. Jonathan laments that Ukrainian forces did not disable the vehicle first, noting that abandoning military equipment intact allows the Russians to use it against Ukrainian forces or strip it for valuable parts.
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Andrew Perpetua's analysis of Russian equipment losses
🎦 07:31-15:31⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's latest live stream video focusing on Russian equipment losses in the Terny-Torska area. Andrew's analysis of high resolution satellite imagery has revealed a significant number of previously unidentified Russian equipment losses. In one area, the higher resolution imagery revealed an additional 50 destroyed vehicles that could not be identified in the lower resolution imagery that Andrew normally uses. He estimates that approximately 1/3 of equipment losses are not being recorded using the lower resolution imagery. Jonathan is clearly impressed with Andrew's work and states that if he were a millionaire he would fund Andrew to map the entire frontline.
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Chinese "golf carts" are easy targets for Ukrainian forces
🎦 15:31-16:24⏩
Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of Chinese "golf carts" being used by Russian forces. Jonathan questions whether the Russians are using the vehicles out of necessity or because they offer some tactical advantage, but acknowledges that the vehicles offer little protection from Ukrainian drone strikes.
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Ukrainian fixed-wing drone destroys Russian electronic warfare system
🎦 16:24-17:22⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Ukrainian fixed-wing drone destroying a Russian R330 Zhitel electronic warfare system 20km behind the front lines in Luhansk Oblast.
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Daniela updates drone warfare statistics
🎦 17:22-19:23⏩
Jonathan gives an update on drone warfare statistics following the discovery of an error in calculations that meant that some Ukrainian drone strikes were not being recorded accurately. The corrected figures show a significant increase in the number of Ukrainian drone strikes. Jonathan also amuses viewers with an anecdote of how he was called out for "disinformation" by a Russian troll who claimed that 50,000 members of the Ukrainian Navy defected to Russia in 2014. Jonathan points out that there were only 13,600 members in the entire Ukrainian Navy at the time.
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Ukrainian Navy claims to have destroyed 1/3 of Russia's Black Sea Fleet
🎦 19:23-20:37⏩
The Ukrainian Navy claims to have destroyed 1/3 of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. They state that their ultimate goal is to remove Russia's entire military presence from both the Azov and Black Sea. Jonathan reports that 10 out of 13 Shahed drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defences overnight.
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Russian strike on Kharkiv power plant
🎦 20:37-22:49⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the damage to the CHP-5 power plant in Kharkiv following a Russian strike on 22nd March. He explains that as well as knocking out electricity supplies, the attack will also disrupt heating supplies to the city. It is estimated that it will take a few weeks to restore power and several years to repair the damage. Jonathan questions whether Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are proving to be more effective than in 2022.
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Russian air defence operators face punishment for failing to stop Ukrainian drone strikes
🎦 22:49-23:23⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian air defence operators face demotion, fines and even being sent to fight in Ukraine if they fail to stop Ukrainian drone strikes. This comes from partisan group Atesh.
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Russia deploys Zircon hypersonic missiles in Ukraine
🎦 23:23-27:00⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has begun to deploy Zircon hypersonic missiles from Crimea. The missiles can reach Kyiv in just six minutes. Jonathan references an analysis of the missiles by John Ridge who concludes that whilst the missiles do have hypersonic elements, they do not maintain hypersonic speeds for the entirety of their flight. He notes that the use of the missiles by Russia underlines Ukraine's need for more sophisticated air defence systems such as Patriot. Jonathan questions whether Russia will increase its use of the missiles against targets in Kyiv, speculating that they might be used to try to overwhelm or exhaust Kyiv's air defences.
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Russians attempt to blame the West for the Crocus City Hall attack
🎦 27:00-31:59⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians are actively blaming Ukraine and the West for the Crocus City Hall attack despite a lack of evidence. He is angered by a Russian newspaper front page that shows pictures of President Zelensky and President Biden with the caption "May they burn in hell" in relation to the attack.
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Russian disinformation about the Crocus City Hall attack
🎦 31:59-39:17⏩
Jonathan expresses concerns about the level of Russian disinformation following the Crocus City Hall attack. He plays a clip from a recent episode of the Ukraine, The Latest podcast that provides details of a coordinated disinformation campaign being orchestrated by Russian troll farms that aims to pin the blame for the attack on Ukraine and its Western allies. He is particularly concerned about the use of fake websites designed to look like genuine news outlets and notes that even the Princess of Wales has been targeted with Russian disinformation.
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Jonathan rants about the pervasiveness of Russian disinformation
🎦 39:17-42:03⏩
Jonathan rants about the pervasiveness of Russian disinformation and how it permeates even the most unlikely topics and gives a recent example of how pro-Russian voices were quick to blame the Biden administration for a recent bridge collapse in Baltimore after a cargo ship collided with it. Jonathan shows an image sent in by a viewer that shows anti-Ukraine rhetoric, demonstrating that Russian disinformation is also targeting individuals as well as organisations.
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Ivana Stradner - How the West should be tackling Russian disinformation
🎦 42:03-44:21⏩
Jonathan shares a thread by Ivana Stradner who argues that the West needs to do more to counter Russian disinformation, particularly in Serbia where Moscow is trying to stir up anti-NATO sentiment by highlighting the NATO intervention against Serbia in 1999. Jonathan agrees with Ivana Stradner's analysis and calls for the West to be more proactive in challenging Russian narratives by highlighting how Russia has repeatedly proven itself to be an unreliable partner, often failing to support Serbia.
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More Russian War Crimes
🎦 44:21-45:01⏩
Jonathan reports that the UN has evidence that at least 32 Ukrainian prisoners of war were executed whilst in Russian captivity last winter.
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Russian corruption
🎦 45:01-45:49⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia has detained a number of high ranking customs officials on suspicion of corruption. He questions whether this is a genuine attempt to tackle corruption or whether the individuals in question are simply being lined up as fall guys for other failures.
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Zelensky dismisses Oleksii Danilov
🎦 45:49-45:50⏩
:08
Jonathan reports that President Zelensky has dismissed Oleksii Danilov as Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine. He speculates that Mr Danilov might be being lined up for an ambassadorship but admits that he doesn't know why he has been dismissed.
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Wrap up
🎦 45:50:08-45:54⏩
:16⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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