Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If national militaries were trying to count up the losses of vehicles, for example, pieces of equipment, then they would just do exactly what Oryx are doing, right? There's no other way of counting things up as officially as what Oryx is doing and Oryx is doing such a good job that instead of doing it themselves they might as well just rely on Oryx."
Hello Team!
Jonathan thanks his audience for helping him reach his goal of 10,126 subscribers and sets a new goal of 19,692. He provides an overview of the latest Ukrainian figures on Russian losses, noting 480 liquidated personnel, which is lower but a slight uptick from the previous day. Other losses include 2 tanks, 3 APCs, 8 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 4 UAVs, 13 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Bakhmut Update
Reports indicate there were only 10 Russian attacks in and around Bakhmut, which is very low. The Russians have made advances, and the Ukrainians appear to be pulling back behind the railway line. However, Wagner Group found that Ukrainian forces are not retreating from Bakhmut, contradicting earlier statements about taking the city.
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Classified Documents Leak
Classified US slides detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian army ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were leaked on social media. The Pentagon is investigating the leak, which may have occurred during a visit to Europe five weeks ago. The Russians are already spreading disinformation by photoshopping the slides. The documents provide insights into Ukrainian troop units, equipment, training schedules, and the timeline for the counter-offensive.
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Hits and Losses
- Ukraine claims 3,000 Russian troops voluntarily surrendered in March, twice the level seen at the end of 2022. This needs to be taken with caution as it could be propaganda.
- Footage shows a Russian MTLB armoured personnel carrier equipped with a ZU-23-2 23mm autocannon being hit by a Ukrainian loitering munition.
- More footage of a UR-77 demining vehicle being used in offensive mode by the Russians.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reports a tent town for wounded Russian soldiers was noted in occupied Crimea, suggesting hospitals are overwhelmed.
Military Aid and Humanitarian Aid
- 17 new Suzuki Grandvitaras were handed over to the Ukrainian Ministry of Health by UNICEF, demonstrating the various organizations supporting Ukraine.
- The German defence industry is at peak production due to the war, with companies like Rheinmetall and Hensoldt reporting record profits and order volumes. This highlights the uncomfortable relationship between profit and war.
- Germany updated its military aid list to Ukraine, including a pioneer engineering vehicle, trucks, antenna masks, ammunition, and reconnaissance drones.
- Ukrainian and Polish companies signed an agreement for joint production of 125mm tank shells, with production in Poland and Ukraine sharing technologies and expertise.
- Lithuania is sending $44 million worth of new military aid to Ukraine.
- Greece is ready to hand over another batch of BMP-1s and artillery shells to Ukraine once they receive Marders from Germany as backfill.
Geopolitics
- Swedish investigators are finding it difficult to confirm who blew up Russia's Nord Stream pipeline, but they are still primarily looking at state actors.
- French President Macron and European Commission President von der Leyen visited Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite Macron's diplomatic faux pas, China reiterated its stance against the war, the need to protect civilians and not use nuclear weapons, and that Crimea and the annexed areas are Ukrainian territory. Xi expressed readiness to hold a telephone conversation with Zelensky.
- The President of UEFA believes Russian and Belarusian teams should remain suspended as long as the war continues.
- The United States, Germany, and Hungary oppose an attempt by Poland and the Baltic states to propose a NATO membership plan for Ukraine at the July summit in Vilnius, likely due to concerns about Article 5 obligations while Ukraine is at war with Russia.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks his audience for their support and for helping him reach over 10,000 subscribers. He appreciates the community that has been built around his channel and the engagement in the comment threads.
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