Fact-Checking Aid Claims, RU Aircraft Losses, & Desertions
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"It's really difficult to start pitting one country against another country or the EU against the US etc etc it's just it demands i think a much greater nuance than that"
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologises in advance if he struggles with words as he's had a couple of shandies at his twins' end of season rugby barbecue. He wants to address some comments claiming the US has given far more aid to Ukraine than the EU.
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Fact-checking US vs EU aid claims
- Donald Trump recently claimed the US has given $170B aid to Ukraine vs $20B from the EU. This was fact-checked by CNN and found to be false.
- US military aid to Ukraine is $36.9B since Feb 2022. The US is not running out of ammunition as Trump claimed.
- In terms of aid as % of GDP, the US ranks 9th, behind Baltic states, Poland, UK and others. EU's GDP is 71% of the US.
- By end of Feb 2023, US government support to Ukraine was €71.3B vs €61.9B from the EU. This is 86% of the US amount, while EU GDP is 71% of the US. So the EU has given a greater proportion of aid relative to GDP.
- Comparing aid between the US and EU is problematic as there are large differences between EU member states. More nuance is needed than simply comparing US vs EU totals.
High desertion rates in Russian armed forces
- Cases of desertion in the Russian armed forces have massively increased, with more prosecutions in the first 4.5 months of 2023 than all of 2022.
- In 2022 there was a 63% increase in desertion cases compared to 2021. In 2023 so far there have been 1,053 cases vs 1,001 in all of 2022.
- Desertion is now punishable by 5-10 years imprisonment, but many are given suspended sentences and sent back to the front lines in Ukraine.
Russian aircraft losses in Bryansk region
- On 13 May, 4 Russian aircraft (2 Mi-8 EW helicopters, 1 Su-35, 1 Su-25) were shot down in Bryansk region. A 5th helicopter was shot down in Crimea the day before.
- Theories include: 1) Ambushed by Ukrainian Nazams air defence systems 2) Shot down by Russian air defences
- Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ikhnat said 5 Russian aircraft in total were lost in Bryansk region that day. He implied it was due to Russian air defences but was vague on details.
- Jonathan speculates Ukraine may prefer to blame Russian air defences to avoid admitting they attacked over the border.
Zelensky says Ukraine almost ready for counter-offensive
In recent interviews, President Zelensky said Ukraine now has almost enough weapons to begin its long-anticipated counter-offensive and Ukrainian soldiers are almost ready for success. This is a change in rhetoric from saying they still needed to wait for more equipment.
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Wrap up
Jonathan shares a personal story about attempting to kick a rugby ball at his sons' rugby event despite his multiple sclerosis affecting his mobility. He realised his sporting days are likely over. He appreciates the audience's support and asks them to like, subscribe, share and "hit bells and blow whistles".
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