Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Do not underestimate the importance of the North Koreans because it enables...it enables the Russians to prolong the war."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update. He reminds everyone about the ongoing fundraising campaign for Ukraine, "Trucks Under the Christmas Tree." The goal is to raise enough money for 15 trucks, with ATP Geopolitics currently in first place. He thanks the 207 people who have generously donated so far.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:31-02:42⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses:
- Personnel: 1,070 (high, but on the lower end of the high range)
- Tanks: 12 (high)
- Armored personnel vehicles: 29 (well above average)
- Artillery systems: 23 (above average)
He notes that Oryx, who tracks visually confirmed equipment losses, is facing a backlog due to the high volume of losses. An Oryx contributor, Erlen, suggests that Russia is running low on experienced officers, with recent graduates being put in command of airborne battalions.
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How to Win a War - Jonathan's Analysis
🎦 02:42-09:48⏩
Jonathan analyses the factors determining victory for either side:
- Boots on the Ground:
- Russia has a numerical advantage but a lower threshold for casualties.
- Ukraine has a higher motivation to fight but fewer people.
- Jonathan emphasises the significance of Russia's access to North Korean troops, an asymmetry Ukraine cannot match.
- He believes allied troops in Western Ukraine could ease Ukraine's mobilisation challenges.
- Equipment:
- Russia initially had a considerable advantage in equipment and stockpiles.
- Ukraine has effectively depleted Russian equipment through asymmetrical attrition.
- The war is shifting to a contest of industrial capacity, favouring the West.
- Economic Resources:
- Ukraine relies heavily on Western aid, which is contingent on political will.
- Jonathan highlights the economic challenges faced by Western nations and the difficult balance between supporting Ukraine and domestic needs.
- Russia's economy, though more resilient than anticipated, depends on energy and resource exports.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of sanctions and the need to reduce Russia's hydrocarbon revenue, potentially through actions by Saudi Arabia and OPEC.
- He argues that China's economic support is crucial for Russia's ability to sustain the war.
Jonathan believes that understanding these three elements is essential for interpreting the war's trajectory.
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North Korean Troops in Kursk
🎦 09:48-18:09⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russian manpower shortages and the increasing presence of North Korean troops in the Kursk region:
- A Ukrainian ambassador confirmed the deployment of hundreds of North Korean troops alongside Russian forces in Kursk.
- Reports from Ukrainian soldiers and the "Magyar's Birds" brigade describe North Korean troops engaging in outdated "human wave" tactics with inadequate equipment and training.
- Despite their limitations, these troops force Ukraine to expend resources and manpower.
- Jonathan expresses concern about Russia's ability to draw on a vast pool of North Korean soldiers, potentially prolonging the war and increasing the likelihood of a Russian victory (in some form).
Jonathan cites Andrew Perpetua, who acknowledges Russia's manpower challenges while pointing out the persistence of narratives suggesting infinite Russian manpower. Jonathan believes the truth lies somewhere in between.
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Russian Adaptation and Resourcefulness
🎦 18:09-21:33⏩
Jonathan observes that while Russia is facing shortages in traditional military equipment like infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, they are adapting by increasingly relying on drones and improvised solutions:
- Jonathan notes a threefold increase in Russian drone usage in southern Ukraine.
- He emphasizes Russia's willingness to adapt, using whatever resources are available, from basic armoured vehicles to motorcycles, to maintain their war effort.
- He argues that as long as the political will exists in the Kremlin, Russia will find ways to circumvent shortages and continue the fight, drawing a contrast with Western democracies where such situations might lead to political change.
Jonathan reiterates the importance of understanding the interplay between manpower, equipment, and economic strength in determining the war's outcome.
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Southern Ukraine Offensive
🎦 21:33-22:13⏩
Jonathan reports on intensified fighting in southern Ukraine:
- Russian forces have tripled their use of drones in the south as they push toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Artillery shelling has also nearly doubled in the region.
- Jonathan underscores the importance of outproducing Russia in drones, missiles, and artillery ammunition for Ukraine to succeed.
Military Equipment Discussion
🎦 22:13-23:27⏩
Jonathan discusses optimal military equipment for Ukraine, citing Andrew Perpetua's view that instead of costly, heavy self-propelled guns, investment should focus on:
- Lightweight, long-range towed artillery that is easy to maneuver and conceal.
- Howitzers that can be repositioned without heavy vehicles, emphasizing practicality and cost-effectiveness.
Ukraine Targets Russian Logistics
🎦 23:27-23:52⏩
Jonathan reports on successful Ukrainian sabotage of Russian logistics:
- Ukraine claims responsibility for a railway explosion near the Ulyanovsk motor plant, aiming to disrupt the transport of military equipment.
Drone Warfare
🎦 23:52-25:11⏩
Jonathan details recent drone attacks:
- Russia launched a wave of 49 drones into Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses and electronic warfare systems neutralizing most of them.
- Zelensky reported that Russia has conducted around 550 drone strikes in the past week alone.
- Three drones reportedly struck Grozny, Chechnya. Razman Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, claimed retaliation, though Jonathan suspects this to be a form of trolling.
Ammunition Depot Destruction
🎦 25:11-26:50⏩
Jonathan describes a significant Ukrainian strike on a Russian ammunition depot in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast:
- The attack, carried out by SBU drones, resulted in a massive explosion, visible for miles.
- The depot contained thousands of rounds of ammunition for various military equipment, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and anti-tank guided missiles.
- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of such strikes for degrading Russian logistical capabilities.
Missile and Drone Production
🎦 26:50-28:16⏩
Jonathan highlights the importance of missile and drone production:
- He emphasizes the need for Ukraine to ramp up its production of drones and missiles to match Russian capabilities, particularly their new "Peklo" (HELL) drone missiles.
- Jonathan believes Ukraine should aim for a tenfold increase in drone production.
Oil Infrastructure Dilemma
🎦 28:16-29:43⏩
Jonathan discusses the dilemma surrounding attacks on Russian oil infrastructure:
- While such attacks disrupt Russia's ability to produce, refine, and transport oil, they can also inadvertently increase global oil prices, potentially benefitting Russia.
- He suggests that a more effective strategy would be for Saudi Arabia and OPEC to increase oil production, flooding the market, and driving down prices, thereby undermining Russia's hydrocarbon revenue.
- Jonathan reiterates that weakening Russia's economy is crucial to achieving a Ukrainian victory.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive & Russian Incursions
🎦 29:43-30:56⏩
Jonathan covers various military developments:
- He reports on a successful Ukrainian counterattack in the Novotroitskoye and Shevchenko areas, involving a significant force of potentially 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers.
- He also mentions a foiled Russian sabotage attempt in the Sumy region, where Ukrainian special operations forces intercepted a Russian group attempting to cross the border.
Tanker Sinkings and Environmental Concerns
🎦 30:56-31:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the sinking of two Russian tankers in the Kursk Strait:
- Greenpeace warns of significant potential environmental damage, estimating each tanker could have been carrying up to 5,000 tonnes of oil products.
- The spill, driven northeast by winds and currents, could result in a major environmental disaster.
Severed Baltic Sea Cables
🎦 31:48-33:58⏩
Jonathan addresses the claim that a Chinese cargo ship, the Yipeng 3, deliberately damaged undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea in November, potentially under orders from Russian intelligence:
- Euromide Impress alleges that the ship used its anchor to sever two cables vital to Central Europe.
- Jonathan criticizes the lack of a stronger response from the West and argues for greater transparency with the public about the extent of Russian aggression.
- He suggests framing the situation as a "hybrid war" to justify increased support for Ukraine and counter public reluctance to fund the war effort.
- Jonathan provides examples of past Russian hostile actions against the West to illustrate the ongoing nature of the conflict.
Russian Economic Strain & Societal Resilience
🎦 33:58-36:03⏩
Jonathan examines Russia's proposal to reintroduce food stamps for vulnerable populations due to high inflation and rising prices:
- He views this as a sign of economic strain caused by the war and sanctions.
- Jonathan questions the long-term sustainability of this approach and the Russian population's willingness to tolerate declining living standards.
- He contrasts this with the West, where such measures would likely trigger public unrest and political change.
Christmas Truce & Trump's Peace Initiative
🎦 36:03-37:02⏩
Jonathan discusses recent statements regarding potential peace negotiations:
- He cites a Russian official who questions Ukraine's trustworthiness in adhering to any potential Christmas truce, calling it a form of projection given Russia's history of breaking agreements.
- He reports that US President-elect Donald Trump's team is exploring options for a permanent end to the war.
- Jonathan expresses concern over potential concessions to Russia, particularly referencing Viktor Orbán's (Hungary's Prime Minister) peace initiative, which is seen as unfavorable to Ukraine.
The Global Dimension of the War
🎦 37:02-38:06⏩
Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the global nature of the conflict, likening it to a high-stakes game of Risk:
- He stresses that the outcome of the war hinges on which side, with its respective allies, can outlast the other, encompassing manpower, resources, and economic strength.
- Jonathan believes that greater honesty and transparency about the stakes of the war are needed to maintain public support for Ukraine in the West.
- He ends by encouraging viewers to share their opinions and perspectives on the discussed issues.