Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Huge Arty Losses, Kyiv Hit
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Table of Contents 📖
"The war can be over if Ukraine is merely allowed to destroy Putin's oil industry"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG Politics video, a Ukraine War News Update for the 23rd of March 2025.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Extraordinary Russian Artillery Losses
🎦 00:16-04:53⏩
- The Ukrainian general staff reports record-breaking Russian artillery losses for the past week, reaching a daily high of 104 pieces.
- A seven-day rolling average confirms the highest artillery losses throughout the war.
- Jonathan analyses daily averages for tank, AFV, and artillery losses, observing significant fluctuations.
- He speculates whether the increased Ukrainian artillery success could be linked to events in Belgorod.
- Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian close air support, likely using guided glide bombs, in targeting Russian positions.
- He cites examples of successful Ukrainian strikes, including the destruction of a Russian command post in Belgorod.
Russian Drone Warfare and the Rubicon Unit
🎦 04:53-08:33⏩
- Jonathan analyses a video showing a Russian fiber optic drone striking a German-supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer.
- He notes the effectiveness of Russian fiber optic drone technology and their continued use in the conflict.
- Jonathan discusses the Russian "Rubicon" unit, known for its drone warfare capabilities and their alleged role in the Ukrainian withdrawal from Kursk.
- He references Andrew Perpetua's analysis, which suggests the Rubicon videos are edited to exaggerate their impact and may involve double-counting.
- Jonathan calls for viewers with expertise to assist in analysing Rubicon footage for open-source intelligence purposes.
Ukraine's Decentralized Drone Advantage and Russian Countermeasures
🎦 08:33-11:26⏩
- Jonathan highlights Ukraine's decentralised drone procurement system, where startups and charities play a significant role alongside central government acquisition.
- He argues that this diverse approach gives Ukraine a tactical advantage as it makes it harder for Russia to develop effective countermeasures.
- Jonathan contrasts this with Russia's centralised system, which he believes is less adaptable and results in outdated drone technology reaching the front lines.
- He cites a Business Insider article supporting his view that Ukraine's chaotic drone arsenal provides a tactical surprise advantage.
- Jonathan reiterates his previous suggestion that Ukraine should develop a universal control system to manage their diverse drone fleet effectively.
Increased Ukrainian Airstrikes and Russian Guided Bombardment
🎦 11:26-14:17⏩
- Jonathan observes an apparent increase in Ukrainian airstrikes using guided bombs, citing examples of attacks on Russian positions in Novokokovka and Turetsk.
- He acknowledges that Russia also continues its heavy use of guided bombs and drones, citing Zelensky's report of 1,580 Russian guided bombs launched in the past week.
- Jonathan questions the accuracy of Russian guided bombs, referencing claims that they are encountering issues with electronic warfare countermeasures.
- He speculates that Russia's success in pushing Ukrainian forces out of Kursk might be due to a lack of effective electronic warfare in that region.
Alleged ATACMS Strikes in Belgorod and Conflicting Reports
🎦 14:17-17:05⏩
- Jonathan addresses Russian reports of Ukrainian ATACMS missile strikes in the Belgorod region.
- He expresses uncertainty about the remaining Ukrainian ATACMS stockpiles, noting estimates ranging from less than 20 to completely depleted.
- Jonathan observes that Russian sources often attribute any significant missile attack to ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles, raising doubts about the accuracy of their claims.
- He acknowledges conflicting information about the situation in Belgorod, with limited firsthand accounts due to operational security.
- Jonathan cites a Ukrainian general staff claim of destroying a Russian command post in Belgorod, possibly with guided glide bombs.
- He presents a Russian Telegram channel claim alleging a grave situation for Russian troops in Belgorod, with the risk of encirclement near Grafovka and Demidovka.
- However, Jonathan notes that Ukrainian advances in Belgorod appear limited and the situation remains unclear.
Russian Su-34 Crash Landing and Other Incidents
🎦 17:05-18:55⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of a Russian Su-34 fighter bomber forced to make a belly landing due to landing gear failure, suggesting this will likely take the aircraft out of commission for a significant time.
- He reports a major fire in Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region of Moldova, and speculates about potential causes, including sabotage or an explosion at an ammunition storage facility.
- Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of Transnistria, which houses a large stockpile of Russian ammunition and equipment.
- He commends the Atesh Partisan Group for sabotaging a railway transformer in the Smolensk region of Russia, disrupting their logistics.
Intensified Russian Drone Attacks and Kyiv Strikes
🎦 18:55-23:20⏩
- Jonathan reports another night of large-scale Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, with Kyiv being heavily targeted.
- He expresses concern over Ukraine's declining drone interception rate, with only 97 out of 147 drones shot down, leaving 25 drones reaching their targets.
- Jonathan analyses the figures, noting a potential decrease in electronic warfare interceptions and an increase in conventional means, suggesting possible Russian drone adaptations.
- He questions whether Russia has abandoned using Ukrainian mobile phone masts for drone navigation after Ukraine successfully spoofed them in the past.
- Jonathan describes the horrific aftermath of drone strikes in Kyiv, particularly in residential areas, leading to civilian casualties and widespread damage.
- He condemns the attacks, highlighting the tragic deaths of a father and his five-year-old daughter, an 80-year-old woman, and injuries to others.
Russian Strikes Across Ukraine
🎦 23:20-25:11⏩
- Jonathan reports Russian strikes on Kramatorsk, where one person was injured, and Prokrosk, resulting in the deaths of a 66-year-old woman and a 41-year-old man.
- He highlights the continuous Russian bombardment of Zaporozhye, with at least four aerial bombs exploding, thankfully with no reported injuries.
- Jonathan mentions a fire in the Kiev region near Bucha caused by falling debris, likely from intercepted missiles or drones.
Ongoing Fire at Russian Oil Facility in Krasnodar
🎦 25:11-26:41⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the Russian oil facility in Kavkazkaya, Krasnodar, which was previously struck and continues to burn for the fifth consecutive day.
- He emphasises the economic impact of the attack on Russia's oil industry, referencing a comment suggesting the war could end if Ukraine were allowed to cripple Putin's oil infrastructure.
Zelensky's Activities and International Developments
🎦 26:41-27:05⏩
- Jonathan mentions Zelensky's visit to frontline positions near Prokrosk to meet with local commanders, demonstrating his continued engagement.
- He highlights Zelensky's busy schedule, noting his recent meetings with Petr Cech and trips to Finland and Norway.
- Jonathan reports that the Czech Republic plans to rescue Radio Free Europe after its funding was cut during the Trump administration.
- He explains the importance of Radio Free Europe in countering disinformation and promoting democratic values.
- Jonathan mentions Gazprom burning through 98.5% of its foreign currency reserves, leaving it with a mere $13.5 million.
US Lifts Crypto Sanctions on Russia
🎦 27:05-27:32⏩
- Jonathan criticises the US for lifting sanctions on a Russian crypto service, arguing that this directly aids Russia in circumventing sanctions.
- He expresses disappointment with this decision, suggesting it undermines the efforts to pressure Russia.
Peace Talks and Conflicting Statements
🎦 27:32-29:26⏩
- Jonathan discusses the ongoing peace talks, revealing that the US aims to achieve a broad ceasefire by April 20th but acknowledges the possibility of delays.
- He points out the conflicting rhetoric surrounding the peace talks, with some claiming they are close to a breakthrough while others, including Ukrainian officials, remain sceptical.
- Jonathan criticises Steve Witkoff's recent interview with Tucker Carlson, describing it as "terrible" and promising to dissect it further in his geopolitics video.
- He quotes Witkoff's dismissal of the UK's troop proposal as "simplistic" and his praise for Putin as "super smart" and "not a bad guy."
- Jonathan notes Trump's claim that he is the only one who can stop Putin, further highlighting the confusing messaging surrounding the peace talks.
Upcoming Talks in Riyadh and Ukrainian Scepticism
🎦 29:26-29:35⏩
- Jonathan mentions upcoming talks in Riyadh, clarifying that they will not involve direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
- He explains that the US will act as an intermediary, holding separate discussions with each side.
- Jonathan highlights Ukrainian scepticism towards these talks, with officials downplaying expectations and anticipating little substantial progress.
Turtle Survives Russian Attack in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 29:35-30:35⏩
- On a lighter note, Jonathan shares a heart-warming story of a turtle named Raktar that survived a Russian attack on a daycare centre in Zaporizhzhia.
- He shows footage of rescuers pulling the turtle from the rubble and reuniting it with its overjoyed owner.
Wrap up
🎦 30:35-30:50⏩
- Jonathan jokes about the turtle being trained for a kamikaze mission against the Russians.
- He signs off, thanking viewers and bidding them farewell.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Could you please clarify the meaning of "Che in Kiev" mentioned in timestamp 24:54.471-24:58.871? Is this a person's name or an abbreviation for something else?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
I need to carefully follow the instructions and rules for each task to ensure the output is accurate and in the correct XML format.
Step 1: Extract Title, Date, and Part
I'll remove the date and part from the video title to get the title.
I'll extract the date and reformat it to DD/MM/YYYY.
I'll extract the part, which is the letter after the date.
Step 2: Identify Topic Titles
I'll divide the transcript into distinct topics, ensuring each topic is granular and specific.
I'll use the topic titles "Hello Team" and "Wrap up" for the introduction and closing sections.
I'll pay attention to Ukrainian spellings and use British English.
Step 3: Determine Topic Timestamps
For each topic, I'll note the start and end timestamps from the transcript.
I'll use the format MM:SS or HH:MM:SS depending on the video length.
Step 4: Summarize Each Topic
I'll provide a concise summary of each topic using bullet points where appropriate.
I'll include Jonathan's opinions and analysis.
I'll mention any tea-related comments.
Step 5: Select a Quote
I'll choose a quote from the transcript that is impactful or insightful.
Step 6: List Queries
I'll honestly list any uncertainties or aspects of the transcript that I didn't fully understand.