Ukraine War BUMPER NEWS Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Op. Web BDA
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan M.S. Pearce welcomes viewers to this Ukraine War News Update, the first part of his usual series. He references a previous video about recent negotiations in Istanbul between Ukraine and Russia, which were mediated by Turkey (not the US, at Russia's request).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Istanbul Peace Negotiations: Russian Demands
🎦 00:32-00:58⏩
Jonathan characterises the Istanbul negotiations as a "nothing burger", indicating no progress was made and the parties are "back to square one". He notes Russia presented a "huge list of completely unreasonable demands", leading him to question the US's next moves regarding sanctions or walking away given Russia's lack of cooperation.
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Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses (03/06/2025)
🎦 00:59-02:41⏩
Jonathan presents the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, stressing the usual caveats about these numbers. Key figures include:
- 1,100 personnel lost.
- 7 tanks (slight uptick).
- 8 armoured fighting vehicles (under half the daily average).
- 48 artillery systems (over twice the daily average).
- 1 multiple launch rocket system.
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system.
- 145 vehicles and fuel tanks (fairly high).
A particularly interesting figure is 12 aircraft lost. Jonathan discusses the battle damage assessment (BDA), noting that while 41 aircraft were initially reported targeted, the 12 likely represent definitely destroyed aircraft, with an unknown number damaged. He questions whether damaged vehicles are also accounted for in other categories.
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Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Russian Aircraft Losses
🎦 02:42-03:16⏩
Jonathan revisits the battle damage assessment of Russian aircraft. He suggests that the initial claim of 41 aircraft targeted by the SBU was "very, very generous" and likely an overstatement. He speculates that the true figure is closer to 12 destroyed aircraft, with an additional number damaged, perhaps around 20 in total. This discussion leads into a dedicated section on the SBU's BDA.
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Unverified Claim of Russian Air Force Commander Sergei Kobylas' Death
🎦 03:16-04:56⏩
Jonathan addresses a widely circulated social media claim that Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylas, commander of the Russian Air Force, "accidentally fell out of the window" in Moscow. He notes that while it would be significant (Kobylas has an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, including ordering an attack on Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv), there is no solid, verifiable evidence from major news outlets. Jonathan, echoing Grok's skepticism, cautions viewers to be careful of misinformation, expressing doubt that the claim is true at present.
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Ukraine Seeks Prison Swap for 1,200 Individuals
🎦 04:56-05:13⏩
President Zelensky has announced that Ukraine seeks to bring back up to 1,200 people in the next prisoner swap with Russia. The exchange is expected to include young people aged 18-25 and those with serious injuries, which Jonathan describes as "good news".
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Russian Drone Attack on Medical Workers in Kherson
🎦 05:14-05:52⏩
Tim White reports a horrific Russian drone attack in Kherson targeting an emergency vehicle. A 67-year-old driver was killed, and two medics (aged 53 and 58) were injured and are recovering in hospital. Jonathan highlights the routine and horrific nature of such attacks, particularly in Kherson, mentioning a documentary about the "Human Safari" in the region, with Zarina Zabriskie involved.
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Ukrainian Shadow Unit Destroys Russian Zastavka EW System
🎦 05:54-06:22⏩
A Ukrainian "Shadow Unit" has successfully identified and destroyed a Russian electronic warfare (EW) system, identified as a Zastavka. Jonathan notes this is a high-value piece of equipment, with internet sources estimating its cost at around $10 million per system, marking a "pretty valuable piece of kit taken out there by the Ukrainians."
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Strange Russian Molniya Drone with Soviet Flag
🎦 06:25-07:15⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a Russian Molniya fixed-wing kamikaze drone, which has previously been effective. He finds it "very strange" that this drone is flying with a Soviet flag trailing from its back. He questions the rationale, as such a visible flag would make the drone easier to detect visually, especially given that drones are typically designed for stealth, hoping not to be visually detected.
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Ukraine's Elite Lazai Drone Unit Demonstrates Precision Strikes on Armoured Vehicles
🎦 07:17-08:36⏩
Jonathan highlights a "very rare" video from Ukraine's Lazai unit, an elite drone unit that Andrew Perpetua, a map source, describes as "Ukraine's best". This unit's work is almost never published, and they specialise in destroying armoured vehicles. The video shows 90 seconds of them taking out a convoy, demonstrating impressive precision in hitting moving targets from a distance, highlighting their advanced skills in calculating speed and drop points for their munitions.
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Ukrainian F-16s Repurposed for Frontline Bombing Runs
🎦 08:37-10:07⏩
Euromaidan Press reports that Ukraine's elite 82nd Air Assault Brigade has redeployed from Sumy defence to the eastern front at Kostyantynivka, due to immense pressure in Sumy. Furthermore, F-16s have shifted from air defence deep in Ukraine to frontline bombing runs. Jonathan notes that he had anticipated this development and believes they should be "absolutely hammering" Russian front lines, especially in Sumy and Pokrovsk, using guided glide bombs like the AASM Hammer and American GBU variants, which have proven effective against command posts and drone units.
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Increased Range of Russian KAB Glide Bombs
🎦 10:07-11:30⏩
MAKS24 reports that Russian KAB guided glide bombs have increased their range to up to 95 kilometres, according to the Kharkiv prosecutor's office. Jonathan explains this is a "real thorn in the side" for Ukraine, as these bombs were already immensely effective. The increased range means Russian aircraft can release them from further inside Russian territory, making them very difficult to intercept. Deploying Patriot systems or similar long-range air defence near the border would make them "insanely vulnerable," and these systems are already needed for key cities and installations.
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Explosion and Fire at Zavolzhsky Motor Plant (Military Engine Facility)
🎦 11:35-12:37⏩
An explosion and large fire have been reported at the Zavolzhsky Motor Plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region of Russia, a considerable distance from Ukraine. A fuel truck reportedly exploded on site, spreading flames to a production facility and injuring one worker with serious burns. Jonathan confirms this is a military truck/engine facility and speculates that it was likely an act of sabotage or partisan activity, describing it as "almost certainly excellent for Ukraine".
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Fire at Pigment Paint and Varnish Factory near St. Petersburg
🎦 12:39-13:15⏩
A paint and varnish factory, "The Pigment," near St. Petersburg, Russia, is on fire, not for the first time. Jonathan suggests that paints and varnishes are widely used in military and aviation industries, speculating (though acknowledging it's speculation) that this facility could have a military dimension, possibly producing radar-reflective paints. He notes that a similar warehouse in Solnechnogorsk near Moscow also caught fire just last week.
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Additional Fires in Russia: Warehouse and Construction Market
🎦 13:17-14:24⏩
Russian Telegram channels report a large fire at the Pigment plant in Yanino-1, Leningrad region, with locals hearing loud explosions before the fire broke out. Jonathan highlights "Russia on fire" as a consistent feature of his videos, indicating widespread incidents. Additionally, the Molotov construction market in Troitsk, on the outskirts of Moscow, is completely alight. While small explosions are heard, likely from paints and flammable liquids, Jonathan remarks that this is "yet another sizable fire, yet another economic impact on Russia".
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Operation Web: Ukrainian Drone Launch System Revealed
🎦 14:24-17:25⏩
Jonathan discusses "Operation Web", a Ukrainian drone launching system disguised as ordinary wooden cabins mounted on cargo trucks. These mobile containers, appearing as simple rural sheds, concealed reinforced compartments. They were driven to pre-selected sites near key airbases, blending into landscapes like forests or farms, and remained dormant for days or weeks with drones preloaded and charged. Upon remote encrypted activation signals, the roofs slid open, and drones lifted off, some vertically, others steered in real-time or with AI homing towards targets like park aircraft, fuel depots, and radar installations.
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Operation Web: Strategic Bomber and Airbase Targets
🎦 17:26-18:04⏩
Operation Web, described as "more than just a tactical win," highlighted Ukraine's growing sophistication in drone warfare and its ability to strike deep into Russian territory. A total of 117 drones were launched in a highly coordinated attack, hitting at least five major airbases. Among the targets were strategic bombers, including aircraft Russia no longer manufactures, making their loss "even more significant." Many drones carried high explosive or shaped charge warheads designed to pierce fuselages or ignite fuel, with some using delayed fuses for maximum post-breach damage.
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Operation Web Preempts Russia's "Zeus Lightning" Missile Attack
🎦 18:06-20:38⏩
Igor Sushko claims that Russia was planning "Operation Zeus Lightning," potentially the largest-ever cruise missile attack on all of Ukraine for the night of 1st June, aiming to force Ukraine's hand at the Istanbul talks the next day. Jonathan finds this plausible and suggests Ukraine would have wanted to make a statement before the talks regardless. Information published on a Kremlin-funded outlet, Zagrad, on 31st May detailed unusual logistical and aviation activity, noting that Western analysts agreed Russia was accumulating strike potential for a coordinated attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, energy, transport hubs, and decision-making centres. This article was deleted on 1st June after Ukraine's Operation Web. If these claims are true, Ukraine's drone strikes, destroying bombers hours before takeoff, prevented potentially devastating mass casualties and infrastructure destruction, as Russia's "Zeus Lightning" operation was aborted.
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Satellite Imagery Shows Damage at Ukrainka Airbase
🎦 20:41-22:19⏩
Initially, it was thought that the Ukrainka airbase, a military base for strategic long-range aviation, was untouched in Ukraine's Operation Web. However, satellite images (though difficult to discern clearly) suggest otherwise. Exilenova reports that at least one Tu-95MS aircraft was destroyed there. Tom Bikes also spotted satellite images showing damage to a Tu-95 bomber at Ukrainka airfield in Russia's Far East, along with burnt vegetation west of the base, indicating that drones launched from a compromised truck did manage to hit at least one aircraft.
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Satellite Imagery Shows Damage to A-50 at Ivanovo Severny Air Base
🎦 22:20-23:14⏩
Satellite images of the Ivanovo Severny Air Base, obtained by Hurin-92, show that one A-50 early warning and control aircraft was "possibly damaged or destroyed". Jonathan notes that A-50s are highly sensitive to fire and damage due to their radar equipment, suggesting this damage signifies a plane that is not operational. There are claims that only three operational A-50s remain, with two damaged or destroyed in this strike, though full details are still pending.
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Diaghilevo Airbase: No Significant Damage to Aircraft Reported
🎦 23:15-24:00⏩
Satellite imagery obtained by AV Vector from 2nd June shows no significant damage to Russia's Diaghilevo airbase following Ukraine's attack. Visible aircraft include three Tu-95s, five Tu-22M3s, and 14 Il-78s. While burn marks are visible near some planes, no damage to the aircraft themselves was observed, which Jonathan describes as "a massive shame".
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Assessment of Russian Strategic Bomber Operational Strength
🎦 24:04-25:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the operational strength of Russia's strategic bomber fleet. Tatarigami estimates the number to be between 70 and 90, with a midpoint of around 80. David D, however, highlights that satellite images can be misleading, showing a Tu-95MS missing an engine and a propeller, indicating that not all aircraft at active airbases are necessarily operational. Jonathan questions if a full analysis of operational readiness has been done to arrive at these figures.
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Dmitry Medvedev's Belligerent Stance on Peace Talks and Revenge
🎦 25:25-27:17⏩
Jonathan presents Dmitry Medvedev's "vodka-fueled rant" following the Ukrainian strikes. Medvedev, described as a "long-time war cheerleader" and "Putin puppet," explicitly states: "Revenge is inevitable. Everything that exploded will explode. Everyone who must be annihilated will vanish. Talks just a step towards wiping out the neo-Nazi regime." Jonathan stresses that this clearly demonstrates Russia's lack of seriousness regarding peace negotiations, viewing them merely as a means to impose "unrealistic conditions" and achieve a "speedy victory" by "complete destruction of the neo-Nazi government." He believes this message "absolutely needs to be in Trump's face" to show Russia's true intentions.
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Analysis of Operation Web's Impact on Russian Strategic Aviation
🎦 27:18-30:24⏩
Bloomberg reports that while the damage inflicted on Russian planes might "rattle decision makers around Putin," it's unlikely to change Moscow's military aims or significantly slow the pace of missile strikes, as only a few bombers are needed for attacks. However, Tatarigami offers a more detailed assessment:
- Confirmed operational strength of the Russian strategic bomber fleet: 70-90 (midpoint 80).
- Estimated losses from Operation Web: At least 11 bombers and one An-12 transport craft destroyed, with two additional bombers likely damaged.
- Confirmed and probable toll: 13-14 aircraft, potentially adding an A-50 AWACS.
- Loss of 11 bombers represents roughly 13.75% of Russia's operational strategic bomber force.
- Ukrainian strikes deliberately avoided the more modern Tu-160 bombers, targeting Tu-95 and Tu-22M3s, likely to avoid escalating by targeting key elements of Russia's nuclear triad, while still degrading active missile strike assets.
- While unlikely to immediately reduce missile strike frequency, these losses (especially of irreplaceable aircraft) reduce Russia's long-range force projection capacity and geostrategic flexibility, making it a "highly successful operation for Ukraine" with longer-term implications.
Jonathan's View on Future Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes
🎦 30:25-31:00⏩
Jonathan states that if he were the Ukrainians, he would "still be trying to hit those airbases with long-range drones." He would focus on overwhelming one airbase at a time to "completely overwhelm it and try and take them out."
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Criticism of Steve Bannon's Reaction to Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 31:00-33:41⏩
Jonathan expresses strong indignation at Steve Bannon's "outrageous" reaction to the Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases. Bannon suggested the US should condemn the attack and pull all support for Ukraine if the White House wasn't given a heads-up, claiming it's "dragging us in it." Jonathan counters that taking out at least 14% of Russia's long-range strike fleet is "insanely good for the U.S." He highlights the hypocrisy, asking if critics like Bannon find it tolerable that these same Russian planes launch cruise missiles into Ukraine, citing the Kh-101 missile strike on the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv on 8th July 2024. Jonathan asserts that Bannon "needs to take a long walk off a short pier."
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Bridging the Divide: JP Lindsley's Pro-Ukraine Advocacy to MAGA Audience
🎦 33:42-38:08⏩
Jonathan praises J.P. Lindsley, a Republican critical of Democrats but a consistent reporter on the war from Ukraine. Lindsley was interviewed by Matt Gaetz, a former representative known for being deeply anti-Ukraine, now working as a news anchor for OAN (a right-wing news station beyond Fox News). Jonathan notes that Gaetz, despite his anti-Ukraine stance, gives a "fairly OK" report, sticking to the script. J.P. Lindsley, in turn, is praised for his single-minded effort to "disabuse MAGA Americans of misinformation and disinformation" by presenting the Ukraine war narrative in a way that appeals to them, aiming to bring them around to supporting Ukraine. Jonathan views this as "so important" and more significant than his own work, as Lindsley, as an "in-group" messenger, is delivering a "death blow to the Russian narrative" on MAGA TV. This is juxtaposed with Alexander Dugin, an ultra-nationalist philosopher, appealing to MAGA for support, showing the battle of narratives.
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Overnight Russian Drone and Missile Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 38:09-38:42⏩
Last night, Russia launched 112 drones into Ukraine. Of these, 75 were taken out (60 shot down, 15 suppressed by electronic warfare), resulting in a "much better shoot down rate". However, 37 drones still got through, about a third of the total. Jonathan notes that most of these seem to be aimed at frontline areas like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
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Kinzhal Missile Strike on Mykolaiv and MiG-31K Launch Shifts
🎦 38:42-40:19⏩
A Kinzhal hypersonic missile was launched at Mykolaiv (initially heard as Mikhailov in the transcript but corrected by Jonathan's subsequent clarification). Reports indicate power outages in the Mykolaiv area. Tim White notes that the MiG-31K bomber that fired the Kinzhal took off from Akhtubinsk airbase in Astrakhan, which is further south and closer to southern Ukraine than its usual launch location in Nizhny Novgorod. Tim suggests this shift indicates Russia changed its tactics after the Ukrainian airbase attacks.
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Russian Cluster Munitions Attack on Sumy Causes Civilian Casualties
🎦 40:23-42:09⏩
Irmaidin Press reports that Russia killed civilians in central Sumy with Tornado-S cluster munitions. This morning strike injured seven civilians, including children, with the death toll rising to at least two dead and 20 injured, four of them children. Jonathan stresses the horrific nature of these images and Anton Geraschenko's statement that "Russia doesn't want peace." Tendar clarifies that Russians fired MLRS missiles with cluster ammunition warheads into the city centre, an act of terror with "zero military value" expected from an enemy failing to defeat Ukraine.
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Widespread Russian Drone Strikes on Ukrainian Cities
🎦 42:09-42:38⏩
In addition to frontline areas, Russia launched a massive drone strike on multiple Ukrainian cities last night:
- Chernihiv: A private home burned down; a school, apartment building, and business were damaged.
- Odesa: Four people hospitalised.
- Kharkiv region: Several homes and infrastructure hit, including a civilian factory.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks Cause Power Outages in Occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia
🎦 42:38-44:26⏩
Jonathan notes a "massive drone attack on Crimea" last night, though little information followed. The Russian-installed government of occupied Kherson region, Saldos, reported that Ukrainian drone debris hit a new power substation in Henichesk, leaving 150 towns in occupied Kherson without electricity, affecting over 104,000 people and 44 key facilities. Critical sites are now on backup power. Power substations were also struck overnight in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, with reports of a substation on fire in occupied Melitopol, which is now completely out of power after Ukrainian drone attacks.
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Ukrainian Delegation Discusses Sanctions and Aid with US Senate
🎦 45:03-45:28⏩,47:47-47:58⏩
A Ukrainian delegation has travelled to the US to discuss various critical topics, including:
- Defence support for Ukraine.
- The current battlefield situation.
- Strengthening sanctions against Russia, specifically advocating for Lindsey Graham's bill.
Ukraine's DTEK to Build Large Battery Energy Storage Complex
🎦 45:29-46:40⏩
The Kyiv Independent reports that DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, has secured a $72 million loan to build one of Europe's largest battery energy storage complexes in Eastern Europe. Jonathan links this to the concept of energy decentralisation, which he often discusses. Spreading out energy sources (like wind turbines) and having robust energy storage makes Ukraine's grid harder for Russia to target and take out compared to large, centralised power plants. He hopes these facilities will be "super well protected."
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Russian Dismissal of Deported Children Return and US Sanctions Support
🎦 46:41-47:46⏩
Jonathan shares a highly disturbing quote from Russian negotiator Medinsky, who reportedly dismissed Ukraine's demand to return deported children with the callous remark: "Don't put on a show for bleeding heart European old ladies with no children of their own." Jonathan stresses that this "calous" attitude needs to be highlighted on US news channels to show "who we are dealing with." In contrast, US House Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed strong support for the "toughest possible sanctions on Russia," telling the New York Post he is an advocate for the bill, which has 82 sponsors in the Senate and needs bipartisan House backing.
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Dutch Government Collapse and Implications for Ukraine Support
🎦 48:09-48:54⏩
The Dutch government has collapsed after Geert Wilders' PVV party (described as the "Dutch Trump" equivalent, anti-immigrant and aligned with Russia) exited the coalition. Jonathan notes that despite PVV objections, the Dik-Schuf led cabinet had agreed to continue full support for Ukraine. He plans to discuss the geopolitical implications of this event, which could go either way for Ukraine's support, in a later video.
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SBU's Humorous Social Media Presence
🎦 48:54-49:29⏩
Jonathan shares a humorous exchange involving Ukraine's SBU (Security Service of Ukraine), who were responsible for Operation Web. When a social media user asked, "Is the SBU watching me?", the SBU account replied, "What, today or in general?". Jonathan loves this witty response, calling the SBU "the new Mossad, but with humour," seeing it as a cool and subtle affirmation that "yes, we are watching you."
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Wrap up
🎦 49:29-49:39⏩
Jonathan thanks his audience, apologises for the video's length, and explains there was a lot to cover, particularly regarding the ongoing developments from Operation Web. He signs off with his signature "Toodlepips".
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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