Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"I will show you real war zone. You should see it. The only prime minister in Europe which has not visited Ukraine is Prime Minister Orban. Take your prime minister and visit our country. I will show you the war zone."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his daily Ukraine war update for 23 June 2023. He notes there is a huge amount of news to cover.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses on 22 June:
- 680 liquidated personnel (slight uptick)
- 4 tanks, 15 APVs (not many tanks, perhaps due to Russian caution after heavy losses)
- 44 artillery systems (staggeringly huge number, video evidence of Ukrainian strikes on Russian artillery)
- 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems (high value losses)
- 9 drones, 30 vehicles/fuel tanks (logistics hit hard)
- 6 pieces of special equipment (e.g. electronic warfare, ISR)
- Another Russian Ka-52 helicopter shot down in Donetsk
- 13 Russian cruise missiles fired overnight, all shot down (100% success rate, improved Ukrainian air defence coverage but still gaps)
Russian Commander Suicide
A high-ranking Russian commander, a protégé of Gerasimov, has reportedly committed suicide according to BBC Russia. He was involved in the withdrawal from Kherson. This is not a good look for the Russian army given his seniority.
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Hits and Losses
- Ukrainian 4700 brigade destroyed 3 Russian D-30 howitzers and ammunition depot
- More footage of Ukrainian forces taking out Russian artillery batteries and ammo (suggests superior Ukrainian counter-battery fire)
- Ukrainian Punisher drone with 75mm bombs destroyed Russian Ural truck, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, Tor-M1 SAM system (significant losses)
- Russian T-90M tank (Russia's most modern) destroyed by Ukrainian border guards, likely by mine
- Ukrainian artillery destroyed Russian mine-laying MLRS (important to reduce mining threat)
- 2 Ukrainian US-supplied Bradley IFVs targeted by Russian kamikaze drones on Zaporizhzhia front (some Russian drone success)
- 4 Russian officers killed in occupied Mariupol safehouse (intelligence on target, painful loss)
Chonhar Bridge Strike
- Footage confirms Chonhar bridge in Kherson oblast was struck by Storm Shadow missile
- Nearby road bridge and rail bridge also reportedly hit
- Will cause major logistics problems for Russia, have to reroute via Perekop isthmus or Kerch bridge which can be targeted
- Russian Pantsir S1 air defence system failed to intercept Storm Shadow, only detected in final approach (cruise missile in stealth mode until pop-up for strike)
Frontline Update
- Clearing weather allowing satellite imagery has revealed Ukrainian gains over past few weeks:
- Advances at Novodonetsk, north of Mariinka, east of Avdiivka, Klishchiivka, Orikhove-Vasylivka, Bilohorivka, Vesele
- Some Russian gains south of Avdiivka
- Reports of Ukrainian breakthroughs of first Russian trench lines near Robotyne using Western armour (unconfirmed)
- Slow Ukrainian progress due to heavy Russian defences, minefields (infographic on attack complexity)
- Russians still reinforcing defensive lines during Ukrainian offensive
Military Aid
- Pentagon supports sending cluster munitions to Ukraine (would significantly boost Ukrainian offensive, compensate for shell shortages)
- US producing 24,000 155mm shells per month (up from 14,000 pre-war, all likely for Ukraine)
- Ukraine firing 110,000 155mm rounds per month (1/4 of Russian rate)
- Israeli Merkava Mk2/Mk3 tanks being sent to Cyprus, rumoured as backfill so Cyprus can send its 82 T-80 tanks to Ukraine (Israel denies but seems likely)
- EU provides another €1.5B in financial aid to Ukraine
- London conference raised €60B in long-term support for Ukraine (strong signal to Putin of Western commitment)
Geopolitics
- Polish PM Duda: If Russia defeats Ukraine it will attack Poland & Baltics. Compares Russia to dangerous wild beast that must be shot. Calls on appeasers offering Ukrainian territory to give up their own land instead.
- EU allowing Hungary sanctions exemption to hire Russian firm to service Budapest metro (concerning precedent)
- Ukrainian MP Goncharenko slams Hungarian PM Orban's lack of Ukraine support in powerful speech at PACE
Other News
- Claims Russia considering terrorist attack on occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP (international community must strongly deter)
- Wagner establishing own military police in occupied areas to discipline Russian troops (rivalry with regular army)
- Day 17 of Ukrainian offensive, going slower than 1991 Gulf War due to lack of air power, reliance on grinding down Russians with artillery (still early days)
Wrap Up
Jonathan apologises for the length of the update but there was a lot of significant news to cover. He signs off until the next update.
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