Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update

"Wow, just two weeks ago, the Russians were shouting about the inevitability of taking Kharkiv… Tomorrow we will be near Kharkiv… [But] In other words, don't say that this is a shining success… We are now, you know, we are in a bit of trouble."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to the daily Ukraine War Frontline Update, thanking JR for the map. Viewers unfamiliar with the map's legend are advised to pause and review.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

New Railway under Construction in Occupied Southern Ukraine

🎦 00:19-01:42⏩

Jonathan discusses a new railway being constructed by Russia in occupied southern Ukraine. He addresses a question from viewer Tim White about why Ukraine hasn't destroyed it yet. Military spokesman Dmitry Potynchuk is quoted as stating that only one section of the railway is currently functional and it remains a legitimate target. Jonathan speculates on the reasons for Ukraine's inaction, suggesting they may be waiting for its completion before targeting it or because the Kerch Bridge cannot handle heavy traffic and is not as important for military traffic and this is an alternative.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Overview of Russian Offensive Operations

🎦 01:42-02:03⏩

Shifting focus to the Kharkiv region, Jonathan observes a decrease in Russian offensive operations, noting claims of halved attacks in the last 24 hours compared to the previous day.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Analysis of Map Updates (DeepState, Perpetua, Suriat)

🎦 02:03-03:06⏩

Jonathan analyzes recent updates from various war maps (DeepState, Andrew Perpetua, Suriat Maps) highlighting the discrepancies and interpretations of Russian advances in the Vovchansk area.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Strategic Importance of Liptsy and Potential Russian Objectives

🎦 03:06-04:01⏩

Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of the village of Liptsy, noting its proximity to Kharkiv. He speculates that Russia's objective may be to establish artillery positions within range of the city, potentially aiming for an operational encirclement rather than a full-scale capture.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Russian Offensive Operations, Ukrainian Counterattacks, and Artillery Assessments

🎦 04:01-06:14⏩

Jonathan discusses claims of Russian gains near Liptsy, citing sources like Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps. He highlights observations of Russian artillery capabilities and the effectiveness of Ukrainian counterattacks.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Analysis of Russian Mill Blogger Wargonzo's Reporting and Ukrainian Capabilities

🎦 06:14-07:51⏩

Jonathan references Russian mill blogger Wargonzo's reporting, highlighting Wargonzo's observations of Ukrainian artillery superiority, effective use of FPV drones, and the impact of these factors on Russian losses and morale. He notes the contrast between recent Russian optimism about capturing Kharkiv and Wargonzo's current, more cautious assessment.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: ISW Report Analysis and Russian Logistics Challenges

🎦 07:51-08:52⏩

Jonathan analyzes a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), discussing claims of Russian advances near Liptsy and Zeleny. He highlights ISW's assessment of Russian logistical challenges, particularly their reliance on vulnerable ground lines of communication across open terrain.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Vovchansk - Destruction, Russian Tactics, and Use of Golf Carts for Logistics

🎦 08:52-09:13⏩

Jonathan focuses on Vovchansk, describing the town's destruction due to artillery and guided glide bomb attacks from both sides. He mentions reports of Russians using golf carts and Bukankas loaves (a type of small vehicle) for ammunition and supply delivery, highlighting the vulnerability of these vehicles to Ukrainian strikes and raising questions about the reasons behind their use.

Return to top⤴️

Vovchansk: Evidence of Russian UMPK Glide Bomb Use and Ukrainian Counter Battery Operations

🎦 09:13-10:11⏩

Jonathan provides visual evidence of a Russian 1,500-kilogram UMPK glide bomb strike on a building in Vovchansk, geolocating the site and discussing the implications for Ukrainian positions. He also mentions Ukrainian strikes on a hospital previously used by Russian forces, highlighting the use of guided glide bombs or GLSDBs by Ukrainian forces and the uncertainty surrounding the specific munitions used.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv: Assessment of Russian Troop Deployment and Potential for Significant Gains

🎦 10:11-10:45⏩

Jonathan questions the strategic effectiveness of Russia's offensive in the Kharkiv region, suggesting that the deployment of troops there might have been more impactful if utilized elsewhere. He emphasizes the difficulty of definitively assessing such counterfactuals.

Return to top⤴️

Northeastern Axis: Russian Advance near Stelmakivka and Analysis of Russian Objectives

🎦 10:45-11:21⏩

Shifting to the northeastern axis, Jonathan discusses renewed Russian advances west of Kolomyrchyky, near Stelmakivka. He observes the strategic importance of the area and analyzes the potential for Russian territorial gains.

Return to top⤴️

Kreminna: Russian Advance West of Dubrova and Analysis of Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 11:21-12:11⏩

Jonathan examines Russian advances west of Kreminna, particularly their push west of the village of Dubrova in the Serebriansky forest. He notes discrepancies between different war maps in depicting the extent of Russian control and emphasizes the fluidity of the situation.

Return to top⤴️

Donbas: Stalemate near Chaviv Yar and Discussion on Russian Strategic Objectives and Mobilization

🎦 12:11-14:06⏩

Jonathan discusses the stalled Russian offensive towards Chasiv Yar, a strategically important location. He questions Russia's overall objectives in the Donbas region, speculating on whether they have shifted their focus away from Chasiv Yar. Jonathan argues that Russia would require a significant mobilization of troops (around 500,000) to achieve any major breakthroughs in the region, highlighting the challenges and potential consequences of such a move.

Return to top⤴️

Donbas: Analysis of Alternative Russian Objectives (Krakova, Prokrovsk) and Troop Requirements

🎦 14:06-16:21⏩

Jonathan continues his analysis of potential Russian objectives, discussing the strategic importance of towns like Krakova and Prokrovsk. He reiterates that capturing these locations would necessitate a substantial commitment of Russian troops and resources.

Return to top⤴️

Donbas: Evaluation of Russian Mobilization Options, Ukrainian Mobilization, and Western Military Aid

🎦 16:21-17:23⏩

Jonathan evaluates the potential consequences of a Russian mass mobilization, highlighting the economic and social implications. He contrasts this with Ukraine's ongoing mobilization efforts and the steady influx of Western military aid, suggesting that time might be on Ukraine's side.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut: ISW Report Analysis, Russian Advances in Canal Micro-district and Klishchivka

🎦 17:23-18:20⏩

Turning to the Bakhmut area, Jonathan analyzes recent ISW reports detailing Russian advances. He focuses on Russian operations in the Canal Micro-district and Klishchivka, noting the challenges in reconciling information from various sources and the time lag inherent in such reports.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut: Analysis of Russian Advances and Ukrainian Counterattacks in Canal Micro-district, Geolocation of Clashes

🎦 18:20-20:35⏩

Jonathan delves into specific claims of Russian advances in the Canal Micro-district, examining geolocation data and reconciling it with information from sources like Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua. He highlights a Ukrainian counterattack in the area and the resulting fluidity of the front line.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut: Analysis of Russian Advances in Klishchivka, Geolocation Data, and Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 20:35-22:22⏩

Jonathan examines Russian advances in Klishchivka, analyzing geolocation data and noting the discrepancies between different maps in depicting the situation. He questions the accuracy of claims regarding complete Russian control of the village and emphasizes the importance of the trench lines on the hills behind Klishchivka.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka: Overview of Frontline Changes and Focus on Neta Ilove

🎦 22:22-23:12⏩

Moving south to the Avdiivka area, Jonathan points out areas of no change and highlights the significance of the situation in Neta Ilove. He prepares to analyze claims and counterclaims regarding control of this settlement.

Return to top⤴️

Avdiivka: Analysis of Russian Advances and Ukrainian Drone Strikes in Neta Ilove

🎦 23:12-24:19⏩

Jonathan analyzes claims and counterclaims regarding the situation in Neta Ilove, comparing information from Ukrainian and Russian sources. He examines the ISW's assessment of Russian advances, notes reports of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian positions on the western outskirts of the village, and highlights the ongoing nature of the fighting.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk: Analysis of Russian Advance in Krasnohorivka and Geolocation of Destroyed Russian BMP

🎦 24:19-26:28⏩

Shifting to the Krasnohorivka area, Jonathan analyzes a minor Russian advance and examines geolocation data of a destroyed Russian BMP, emphasizing that the presence of destroyed equipment does not necessarily equate to territorial control.

Return to top⤴️

Southern Front: Update on Robotyne - Analysis of Conflicting Claims of Control and Ukrainian Counterattacks

🎦 26:28-30:05⏩

Moving to the southern front line, Jonathan focuses on the heavily contested village of Robotyne. He analyzes conflicting claims from Ukrainian and Russian sources, with Ukrainians asserting they have retaken a quarter of the village while Russians claim full control.

Return to top⤴️

Robotyne: Analysis of Mapping Data (Suriat Maps, 65th Drone, Andrew Perpetua) and Geolocation of Russian Bunker Capture

🎦 30:05-32:33⏩

Jonathan delves into map analysis, comparing data from Suriat Maps, 65th Drone, and Andrew Perpetua to provide a comprehensive view of the situation in Robotyne. He examines geolocation data indicating the Russian capture of a bunker in the northernmost part of the village, suggesting the fluidity of control and the challenges of assessing the situation accurately.

Return to top⤴️

Southern Front: Explanation of Contested Areas (Grey Zones) on the Map, Using Robotyne as an Example

🎦 32:33-33:07⏩

Jonathan takes a moment to explain the concept of contested areas (grey zones) on the war map, using Robotyne as an example to illustrate how front lines can be fluid and control can be disputed.

Return to top⤴️

Southern Front: ISW Report Analysis, Russian Artillery Superiority, and Ukrainian Drone Use in Zaporizhzhia

🎦 33:07-33:48⏩

Returning to the ISW report, Jonathan highlights observations of Russian artillery superiority in the Robotyne area but notes Ukrainian advantages in first-person view (FPV) drone usage. He mentions the potential for future collaboration with data analyst Daniel to further explore drone warfare trends.

Return to top⤴️

Kherson: Analysis of Russian Advances on Velikin Potemkin Island and Geolocation of Ukrainian Drone Strikes

🎦 33:48-35:19⏩

Shifting to the Kherson region, Jonathan analyzes Russian advances on Velikin Potemkin Island, using geolocation data to pinpoint Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian positions. He notes the risky nature of Russian attempts to establish a foothold further north on the island.

Return to top⤴️

Kherson: Analysis of the Situation in Kinsburn Spit, Ukrainian Bridgehead, Potential Withdrawal, and Strategic Importance

🎦 35:19-36:39⏩

Concluding the frontline analysis, Jonathan examines the situation in the Kinsburn Spit area. He discusses conflicting claims regarding Russian control, analyzes the potential for a Ukrainian withdrawal, and emphasizes the strategic importance of the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Dnipro River.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 36:39-36:50⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, acknowledges JR's contributions to the update, and encourages viewers to share their thoughts and insights. He signs off with his signature "toodlepips."

Return to top⤴️