Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:55⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video and apologises for yesterday's absence, explaining that summer holidays are proving slightly chaotic. He also mentions issues with YouTube restrictions forcing him to edit content.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report: Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:55-01:55⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, noting a significant uptick in personnel (1,100) and equipment losses, potentially indicating increased Russian activity on the frontlines.
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Oryx Losses: Ukraine and Russia
🎦 01:55-05:49⏩
Jonathan analyses visually confirmed losses from Oryx, pointing out:
- Ukraine lost a 2S6 Tunguska air defence system, a Soviet-era system with cannons and surface-to-air missiles. He clarifies the designation, initially confusing it with the 2K22.
- Other Ukrainian losses include howitzers and a Humvee.
- Russia's losses are significantly higher, including a more advanced Tor-M2 air defence system, multiple MLRS, howitzers, tanks, and armoured vehicles.
- Jonathan emphasises the high ratio of Russian equipment losses compared to Ukraine's.
Russia Concealing War Dead and Cemetery Expansion
🎦 05:49-08:37⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's attempts to conceal the true number of war dead:
- Citing Tim White and MSN, he reveals a significant increase in spending on cemeteries and new plots, suggesting far higher casualties than officially admitted.
- He highlights that official statistics claim lower death rates in 2022 and 2023, contradicting the cemetery spending.
- Jonathan points to anecdotal evidence from Russian videos showing numerous fresh graves with military flags, supporting the claim of underreported casualties.
Lanchester's Attrition Model: Ukraine Improving, Russia Declining
🎦 08:37-12:08⏩
Jonathan delves into Lanchester's attrition model, using it to analyse the shifting effectiveness of both sides:
- Citing Trent Telenko, he argues that Ukraine's drone warfare, exemplified by the attack on Millerovo Air Base, demonstrates improving tactics and targeting.
- He contrasts this with the decline in Russian effectiveness, particularly in air defence and artillery.
- He explains that while Russia may not run out of artillery entirely, their effectiveness will continue to diminish due to attrition outpacing training and production.
- The snowball effect, he concludes, will ultimately leave Russia at a severe disadvantage.
Visualising Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 12:08-13:11⏩
Jonathan highlights a graph by Dell, visualising the increasing rate of Russian personnel losses. He points out that each additional 100,000 losses occur faster, demonstrating the escalating impact of attrition.
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Russia's Dwindling Resources: Weapons, Manpower, and Economy
🎦 13:11-20:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the depletion of Russia's resources, citing Yanis Kluger:
- Initially, Russia relied on vast stockpiles of old weapons, a large pool of men from impoverished backgrounds, and seemingly solid finances.
- These resources are not limitless, leading to inflation as military production increases, manpower is drained from the labour market, and trade and fiscal balances weaken.
- Putin faces a dilemma: prioritize the war effort or maintain a comfortable standard of living for most Russians.
- Jonathan suggests that increased mobilisation and taxes indicate a shift towards a full war economy, with potentially significant consequences for Russian society.
Evidence of Russia's Struggles: Equipment Failures, Protests, and Power Cuts
🎦 20:09-22:15⏩
Jonathan presents further evidence of Russia's internal struggles:
- Russian media reports a quarter of Moscow's IL-76 planes grounded due to low-quality parts, highlighting supply chain and manufacturing issues.
- Protests over power outages continue, with residents in Krasnoyarsk blocking roads and those in Krasnodar and Rostov sending video messages to Putin.
- He notes authorities responding with arrests and attempts to suppress dissent.
Appeasement is Not the Answer
🎦 22:15-22:26⏩
Jonathan references the film Darkest Hour, about Winston Churchill's stance against appeasing Hitler, arguing against negotiating with dictators from a position of weakness.
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More Russian Losses: BUK System and Fires
🎦 22:26-28:13⏩
Jonathan reports:
- A Russian BUK air defence system destroyed in a HIMARS strike, showcasing the system's vulnerability.
- The ongoing trend of fires across Russia, referencing a new Molfar analysis concluding that fires at energy and military facilities continue to rise in 2024.
Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 28:13-31:38⏩
Jonathan details a heavy wave of overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine:
- A massive drone attack involved 35 drones, with 4 getting through Ukrainian defences.
- Three Iskander-M ballistic missiles and two KH-59 cruise missiles also struck Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses doubt about unconfirmed Russian claims of hitting two trains carrying Ukrainian troops and equipment, killing 240 soldiers. He finds it unlikely given the targets and the nature of such strikes.
Russian Drone Strikes on Ukrainian Electricity Grid
🎦 31:38-34:24⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian drone strikes targeting Ukraine's electricity grid:
- He cites Shahid Tracker data showing that numerous high-voltage substations were hit, causing power outages in several regions.
- He speculates that Russia might be mirroring Ukraine's successful tactics of targeting Russian infrastructure, given their own struggles with power grid maintenance and a lack of access to Ukrainian components.
Aftermath of Ukrainian Strike on Millerovo Airbase
🎦 34:24-36:57⏩
Jonathan examines satellite imagery from Radio Svoboda showing the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on Millerovo Airbase:
- Three fire hotspots are visible, indicating damage to a maintenance hangar, an open area (possibly an air defence system), and a fuel and lubricant storage site.
- While the extent of damage to aircraft remains unclear, the strike clearly impacted infrastructure.
Russia Reinforces Bomber Presence
🎦 36:57-37:25⏩
Jonathan reports on the transfer of three Russian Tu-22M3 bombers from the Far East to airbases closer to Ukraine. The reason for the reinforcement is unknown, but he speculates it could be for increased bombing or to replace aircraft lost to sabotage, combat, or maintenance issues.
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Social Unrest in Russia Grows as Power Outages Continue
🎦 37:25-38:08⏩
Jonathan revisits the growing social unrest in Russia:
- Residents in Krasnoyarsk continue to block roads, complaining of three days without electricity.
- He highlights reports of authorities arresting protesters and attempting to stifle dissent.
Wrap up
🎦 38:08-38:16⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for their support and signing off.
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