Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"All you need is stuff. More missiles, more troops. Well, no, troops is a different one. Stuff... more missiles more air defense systems more infantry fighting vehicles more tanks more anti-tank guided missiles more mines more rockets more more more all you need is that... and the side that has the most stuff and sustainably the most stuff... you will win against the side that can't get lots of stuff."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update, the first part for the 5th of April 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Significant Russian Losses Reported by Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:09-03:04⏩
Jonathan dives into the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting some phenomenal figures: 860 personnel, 15 tanks, 73 armoured personnel vehicles, and 50 artillery pieces lost. He compares these figures to previous days and periods of the war, using data analysis from "Dell." Jonathan notes the significant impact these losses will have on Russian forces, particularly the destruction of armoured personnel vehicles and artillery systems. He suggests that despite the losses, Russian attacks are making marginal gains on the front line.
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Analysis of Visually Confirmed Losses with Andrew Perpetua
🎦 03:04-04:01⏩
Transitioning to Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss statistics, Jonathan emphasizes the one-to-two-day lag these figures often have compared to the General Staff's reports. He underscores the significance of the three-and-a-half-to-one loss ratio, favouring Ukraine, necessary for their overall success. Jonathan expresses concern over the confirmed losses of a couple of Bradley Fighting Vehicles, acknowledging their active use by Ukrainian forces, particularly around Avdiivka.
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The Growing Impact of Drones and Challenges for Ukrainian Offensives
🎦 04:01-07:43⏩
Jonathan segues into discussing the pervasive impact of drones on the battlefield. He points out that Ukrainian offensive operations face significant challenges due to constant Russian drone bombardment, including FPV and Lancet drones. This constant threat makes it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to advance without suffering equipment losses, forcing them to rely heavily on artillery. While acknowledging Ukrainian losses from drone attacks, Jonathan emphasizes that Russian losses remain significantly higher, making their current tactics unsustainable in the long run. He stresses the critical need for air superiority or technological advantages to overcome the dominance of drones in the conflict.
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Russian Disinformation Regarding Treatment of POWs
🎦 13:42-14:52⏩
Jonathan highlights the psychological impact of Russian disinformation on its soldiers, particularly the false narrative that Ukrainian forces torture and kill Russian POWs. He suggests this tactic effectively discourages surrender, forcing soldiers to fight to the death and maintaining a sense of fear.
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Explosions at St. Petersburg Electrical Substation Suggest Partisan Activity
🎦 19:27-20:20⏩
Jonathan reports on two explosions heard at the Jevskaya electrical substation in St. Petersburg, causing damage to transformers. He suspects partisan activity rather than drone attacks due to the targeted nature and location of the explosions. This incident, following a similar one in Moscow, suggests a potential vulnerability in Russia's infrastructure and the emergence of internal resistance.
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Fire at Russian Petrochemical Complex Raises Questions About Potential Causes
🎦 20:20-21:07⏩
Jonathan briefly covers a fire at the Nevonomyskyi Azot Petrochemical Complex in Stavropol Krai, Russia. While the cause remains unclear, he speculates on possible drone strikes or partisan activity, highlighting the increasing frequency of such incidents within Russia.
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Ukraine Hints at Increased Drone Attacks Inside Russia
🎦 21:07-21:46⏩
Jonathan brings up Ukrainian military intelligence hinting at continued drone attacks on Russian military facilities, with a warning of increasing range. He connects this statement to the recent attack on the Morozovsk airbase, demonstrating Ukraine's growing capacity and willingness to strike deeper within Russian territory.
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Ukraine Launches Major Drone Attack on Morozovsk Air Base in Russia
🎦 21:46-23:12⏩
Jonathan reports on a significant drone attack on the Morozovsk air base in Russia, located approximately 300 kilometers from the front line. He highlights the air base's strategic importance, housing a significant number of Russian fighter jets. Despite Russian air defenses, primarily autocannons, the attack caused significant damage, demonstrating Ukraine's evolving drone capabilities and reach.
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Conflicting Reports on the Extent of Damage at Morozovsk Air Base
🎦 23:12-25:46⏩
Jonathan delves into the aftermath of the Morozovsk air base attack, acknowledging conflicting reports about the extent of damage. While initial claims suggested over 60 explosions, subsequent reports indicate at least six Russian warplanes destroyed, eight heavily damaged, and 20 military personnel killed or wounded. Jonathan stresses the significance of these losses, particularly if pilots were among the casualties, and the potential impact on Russian air operations.
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Ukraine Potentially Targets Engels Air Base with Reconnaissance Drones
🎦 25:46-28:39⏩
Jonathan speculates that the recent drone activity, including a drone shot down near Engels Air Base, could indicate Ukrainian reconnaissance efforts to assess Russian air defenses and prepare for future attacks. He suggests that Engels, home to Russian bombers carrying Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, could be a high-priority target for Ukraine, aiming to disrupt Russia's ability to launch long-range strikes.
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Russia's Air Defense Dilemma in Light of Ukrainian Drone Strikes
🎦 28:39-31:12⏩
Jonathan analyzes the dilemma facing Russian forces as they try to counter Ukrainian drone strikes. He suggests that the attack on Morozovsk air base and the potential threat to Engels could force Russia to make difficult choices about allocating limited air defense resources, potentially leaving other strategic locations vulnerable. Jonathan highlights the possibility of Ukraine exploiting these vulnerabilities to carry out further strikes and disrupt Russian military operations.
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Ukraine Shoots Down All 13 Russian Drones in Overnight Attack
🎦 31:12-32:17⏩
Shifting back to Ukraine, Jonathan reports the successful interception of all 13 Russian drones launched into Ukrainian airspace overnight. He praises the 100% interception rate as fantastic news for Ukraine, indicating the effectiveness of their air defense systems.
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Russia's Depleting Missile Stocks and Shift in Tactics
🎦 32:17-33:09⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's dwindling missile stocks, particularly their Kh-101 cruise missiles, and a potential shift towards using more Iskander and Kinzhal missiles. He suggests this shift might be driven by the depletion of easier-to-intercept missiles and challenges in launching Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea due to logistical issues. However, he also notes reports of Russia potentially establishing new capabilities for loading Kalibr missiles in their Black Sea Fleet base, signaling a possible resurgence in their use.
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Russia Transfers Air Defense Systems to Front Lines, Leaving Other Regions Vulnerable
🎦 33:09-34:51⏩
Jonathan cites reports from the Atash guerrilla movement indicating that Russia has transferred most of its air defense systems from the Ryazan region to the front lines and Crimea. He highlights the potential vulnerability this creates in regions like Ryazan, making them susceptible to further Ukrainian strikes on critical infrastructure. Jonathan connects this information to the Ukrainian General Staff's reports on Russian air defense losses, suggesting their accuracy and the effectiveness of Ukraine's attrition tactics.
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The Importance of Resources and Public Opinion in Determining the War's Outcome
🎦 34:51-37:43⏩
Jonathan delves into the crucial factors determining the war's outcome, emphasizing the significance of resources, logistics, and public opinion. He argues that access to military equipment, financial resources, and popular support are crucial for both sides, ultimately determining their ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.
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NATO Intelligence Downplays Likelihood of a Major Russian Spring Offensive
🎦 47:05-48:17⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to NATO intelligence assessments, which downplay the likelihood of a large-scale Russian offensive in the near future, attributing this to their substantial losses. He contrasts this assessment with recent statements from US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who claimed Russia had almost entirely rebuilt its military. Jonathan expresses skepticism towards Campbell's assertions, questioning their accuracy and suggesting they contradict the Pentagon, EU allies, and NATO's evaluations. He ponders whether Campbell's statements are a form of disinformation or simply incompetence, emphasizing the lack of strategic coherence behind such contradictory messaging.
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Front Intelligence Insights Challenges Campbell's Assessment, Highlighting Russia's Reliance on Outdated Equipment
🎦 48:17-51:12⏩
Jonathan presents an alternative perspective from Front Intelligence Insights, which contradicts Campbell's claims about Russia's military reconstitution. They argue that while Russia attempts to replace its losses, they increasingly rely on outdated equipment, such as civilian vehicles and older T-62 and T-55 tanks, to compensate for the destruction of more modern equipment. They highlight the unsustainable nature of replacing over 15,000 lost vehicles, including tanks, helicopters, aircraft, and ships, within two years. While acknowledging Russia's expansion in drone capabilities, they emphasize that new units often lack proper equipment and face significant logistical challenges. Front Intelligence Insights concludes that Campbell's assessment is inaccurate and that it will take Russia multiple years to rebuild its army effectively.
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Zelensky Declares Front Line Stable, Suggesting Stalemate
🎦 51:12-52:39⏩
Jonathan reports on President Zelensky's statement following a defense meeting, declaring the front line stable and asserting that Russia cannot advance further. While acknowledging that minor Russian advances might still occur, Jonathan interprets Zelensky's statement as indicative of a stalemate, with Russian progress significantly hampered compared to their earlier offensive in Avdiivka. He attributes this shift to Ukraine's improved ammunition supplies and the potential disruption of Russian air operations due to strikes like the one on Morozovsk air base.
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Russian Media Depicts War as a Holy Struggle Against the Antichrist
🎦 52:39-55:27⏩
Jonathan cites BBC reporter Steve Rosenberg's observations on Russian media, which portrays the war as a holy struggle against the Antichrist, with Russia positioned as a nation chosen by God. He links this narrative to Putin's longstanding strategy of co-opting the church to promote traditional values, nationalism, and ultimately justify his imperialistic ambitions. While acknowledging the low church attendance rates in Russia, Jonathan points out that this narrative resonates with certain international audiences, particularly evangelical Christian groups in the US, garnering them some degree of support.
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Elon Musk Initiates Crackdown on Bots and Trolls on Twitter
🎦 55:27-57:06⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Elon Musk's announcement of a global purge of bots and trolls on Twitter, a move he had promised upon acquiring the platform. Jonathan highlights the surge in traffic on Twitter since the start of the war, attributing it to a significant increase in bot activity, likely driven by Russian attempts to manipulate the narrative. He welcomes Musk's belated action, acknowledging the persistent complaints from pro-Ukrainian users about the overwhelming presence of bots.
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Musk Sparks Controversy with Comments on Ukraine's NATO Aspirations
🎦 57:06-57:33⏩
Jonathan concludes by reporting on Elon Musk's controversial comments regarding Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO. Musk likened Ukraine's potential NATO membership to the beginning of a nuclear apocalypse, sparking criticism and accusations of siding with Russia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 57:33-57:36⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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