Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News - Coup Analysis
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Table of Contents 📖
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"Never, even in my worst nightmare dream, could I have imagined that I would see this shame and destruction in my country."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as a Ukraine War news update for 25 June 2023.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 720 Russian personnel losses, an uptick from previous days
- Losses of tanks, APVs, artillery systems (19), MLRS (5), anti-aircraft warfare systems (2), drones (12), cruise missiles (41), vehicles and fuel tanks (4), and special equipment (4)
- Visually confirmed losses from Oryx show 16 Ukrainian losses vs 59 Russian losses
- Footage of 3 Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS being destroyed simultaneously
Voronezh Oil Refinery Attack
A Russian Air Force Ka-52 attack helicopter is thought to be responsible for destroying an oil refinery in Voronezh to prevent Wagner from capturing it. This has damaged Russia's own infrastructure and capabilities.
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Wagner Shoots Down Russian Aircraft
- Wagner shot down 7-8 Russian aircraft including Mi-8, Ka-52, Mi-35, Mi-28 helicopters and an IL-22 plane with 10 people on board
- This is a significant loss of Russian air crew and expertise, with Prigozhin agreeing to pay compensation to the families
- It raises questions about future cooperation between Wagner and the Russian Air Force
Ukrainian Trolling
Ukrainians engage in humorous trolling, with the Ukrainian intelligence chief jokingly awarding Prigozhin a certificate of appreciation for his efforts, and a Ukrainian drone operator eating popcorn while watching the news unfold.
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Analysis of the Mutiny/Coup
- The mutiny was triggered by a Russian Defense Ministry order for volunteer detachments to sign government contracts, threatening Wagner's independence
- US intelligence knew about Prigozhin's plans in mid-June, before Putin
- The mutiny has exposed cracks in the Russian military and weakened Putin's position
- A short-term compromise between Putin and Prigozhin is not a long-term solution
- The mutiny may prompt Russians to question Putin's leadership and the war effort
- Wagner forces returning to the battlefield will face mistrust, while losing them would be a significant loss for Russia
- Prigozhin challenged the rationale for the war, claiming it benefits oligarchs rather than being a response to Ukrainian aggression or NATO threats
Situation on the Frontlines
- Claims of a large-scale Ukrainian counter-offensive, but limited confirmed information due to focus on the mutiny
- Heavy fighting reported south of Bakhmut, with a Russian battalion suffering significant losses
- Reports of Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro River near the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson
- Ukrainian advances in the Velyka Novosilka area, with Russians unsuccessfully counterattacking
- Confirmation that Ukrainians advanced to within 1.5km of Rivnopil
Military Aid
- Germany and US to transfer up to 45 more Gepard anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine by end of the year
- Germany preparing to send up to 186 Leopard 1A5 tanks and 2 more IRIS-T SLM air defense systems
- Latvia stops issuing visas to Russians and strengthens border protection
Wrap up
Jonathan notes there is less frontline news available due to the focus on the Prigozhin situation. He will provide a front line update next and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video.
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