Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230804a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"These guys are so obsessed with the tech here because they don't have the tech. So after the Cold War has been supposedly gone, you would think that with the internet these days and with technological advancements that they'd be pretty much neck and neck with this kind of kit, and lo and behold, they have to put on some big song and dance about taking this kit. But the implication is because they don't have that kit. They don't have the tech themselves."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, which is part one of the Ukraine War News Update for 4th August 2023. He mentions it is a holiday day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on 3rd August:
- 640 killed in action (KIA), a slight uptick from previous days
- 4 tanks, 15 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs), 19 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 27 drones, 20 vehicles and fuel tanks lost
- Jonathan notes the high losses of artillery systems and vehicles/fuel tanks, suggesting the Russians are struggling with logistics
- He speculates the psychological effect this has on Russian troops, constantly fearing they could be next
Equipment Losses
- Oryx reports 27 pieces of Ukrainian equipment lost, including older tanks, a Bradley IFV, and an Mi-8 transport helicopter
- For the Russians, Oryx lists 48 losses, about double the Ukrainian losses, including many BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles) and tanks
- Andrew Perpetua's figures are broadly in line with Oryx, showing a 2:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian tank losses
- Oryx's data reliability is discussed, with only 2% duplicates found by Archie Irving, but this 2% has now been removed, so the data should be near 0% duplicates
Russian Buk Missile Malfunction
Footage is shown of a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile firing off uncontrollably and "dancing" in the Ukrainian countryside.
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Ongoing Shelling
- The Russians continue to shell places like Kherson, Nikopol, and Marhanets daily
- An explosion is seen on the left bank of the Dnipro, with the target unknown
Arson Attacks in Russia
- A wave of arson attacks on enlistment offices in Russia has claimed a victim
- 76-year-old Valery Mikhailovich allegedly committed suicide after trying to set fire to an army office in Vesolovsk
- Jonathan questions whether it was really suicide given the nature of Russia
Captured Swedish CV90
- The Russians have captured a Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicle and are making a big deal about getting their hands on the technology
- Jonathan finds this embarrassing for the Russians, as it implies they don't have equivalent tech themselves, so they shouldn't make a "song and dance" about it
Long Distance Strikes
- According to Zelensky, Russia has launched at least 1,961 Shahed drones against Ukraine since the war began, with a significant portion shot down
- Ukraine is working to improve its air defence network coverage
- A major explosion occurred, likely in the Moscow area, at either a natural gas plant, oxygen battery warehouse, or gas station - if confirmed, this would indicate Ukrainian involvement
- Russian air defences were active in occupied Crimea, with locals claiming an oil depot was hit in Feodosia, 250km from the front line
- The occupation administration in Crimea is hiding an attack on a military base in Feodosia, with Russian media claiming all drones were shot down despite video confirmation of hits
Naval Drone Attack
- A Ukrainian naval drone attack occurred on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk
- The Russians initially claimed the attack was repelled, but footage shows a heavily damaged Rapucha-class landing ship, the Olenegorsky Gornyak, listing to port
- The drone can be seen hitting the side of the ship where it is lowest in the water, likely rupturing a compartment, with a claimed 450kg explosive
- Jonathan notes this will significantly hurt Russian pride and they will likely seek retributive vengeance
Russian Force Concentrations
- David D provides a map showing the concentration of Russian forces along the front lines
- Past the Suravikin line, Russian presence is sparse
- Jonathan relates this to the ongoing Ukrainian attrition strategy, comparing it to Kherson where the Russians eventually had to pull out
- The Ukrainians are hammering Russian logistics and attriting front line resources like air defences and artillery
- The goal is to weaken the Russian "crust" to the point where the Ukrainians can burst through in multiple areas
Russian Propaganda Silence
- Russian propagandists have been notably silent recently, likely to avoid sowing panic among soldiers and admitting things aren't going well
- This follows successful Ukrainian strikes on ammo storage in Crimea and railway infrastructure like the Chongar Bridge
- Their silence could be seen as an admission that the situation is not favourable for Russia
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes part one of the update, noting there is a lot happening. He is going on holiday soon so will try to get part two and the front line map update done quickly. He thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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