Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Communications became dead. Units were isolated. It says later when you're on uh offense especially for commanders you need a constant stream of information from battalions. Commanders had to drive to the battlefield to be in radio range risking themselves. It was chaos."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, mentioning some disruption from electricians working at his house. He notes it is the last day of them working there.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are provided, with the usual caveats about accuracy. Key points:
- 410 liquidated Russian personnel, which is on the lower end since the counter-offensive began
- 4 tanks and 27 APVs lost, which is a significant number
- 31 pieces of artillery and 2 MLRS lost, which is a terrible day for the Russians in this category
- The attrition in some of these categories must be reaching a tipping point for the Russians
Equipment Losses
Andrew Perpetua, who surveys video footage, has noted more Russian losses than Ukrainian in recent days. For the Russians, losses include electronic warfare equipment, engineering vehicles, artillery, tanks, IFVs, APCs and trucks. On the Ukrainian side, some surveillance and comms equipment was lost, as well as a decoy. The rest was a fairly equal spread of older equipment, but not much that was high value.
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Klishchivka Ambush
Footage is shown of a Russian armoured assault that was ambushed by Ukrainian forces near Klishchivka, south of Bakhmut. A large number of Russian vehicles were destroyed by artillery fire, including cluster munitions. Jonathan notes this may be additional footage to what was shown previously, representing further significant losses for the Russians in the Bakhmut area.
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Airbase Attacks
There have been further Ukrainian attacks on Russian airbases:
- A drone fell on the Shaikovka military airfield in Kaluga oblast, damaging a non-operational plane
- Satellite images show the Russians have removed planes from Soltsy-2 airbase after a Tu-22M3 bomber was destroyed there recently. The planes have likely been moved to bases further from the Ukrainian border, which creates logistical challenges for Russia.
Drone Attacks in Russia
Overnight, there have been more Ukrainian drone attacks reported inside Russia:
- The Russian MoD claims to have downed at least 2 Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea near Crimea using electronic warfare.
- A residential building in Moscow was damaged by a drone. Drones were also reportedly shot down over Krasnogorsk, Chertsy and Bryansk oblast.
- The UK Defence Ministry suggests some of these attacks are likely being launched from inside Russian territory by Ukrainian units or Russian pro-Ukrainian partisans.
Elon Musk and Starlink
A New Yorker article has revealed concerning details about Elon Musk's actions regarding Starlink in Ukraine:
- SpaceX cut connectivity to Starlink for Ukrainian forces in Russian-contested areas, demanding the Pentagon pay $400M per year to maintain the service. This resulted in chaos and the deaths of Ukrainian soldiers.
- Musk spoke to Putin before proposing a Ukraine peace deal that aligned with Russia's position. He has also proposed handing over Taiwan to China in a way that would end its independence.
- Musk's positions seem to be aimed at appeasing Russia and China, likely due to Tesla's reliance on China for resources and manufacturing. This is highly problematic given his control over Starlink.
Crimea Logistics Issues
The partisan group "Atesh" reports that railway stations in Crimea are overflowing with trains carrying tanks of fuel and lubricants that cannot be sent onward. This is due to logistical problems Russia is facing outside Crimea after the Ukrainians severed key rail lines and damaged bridges. Atesh claims this is just the beginning and that Russian logistics and defences in southern Ukraine will be completely destroyed.
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Tank River Crossing
Footage is shown of a tank fording a river, demonstrating that some rivers may be crossable by mechanised forces and might not provide the defensive barrier for the Russians that would be expected. Jonathan notes it depends on the depth and size of each river.
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Wrap up
Jonathan asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He appreciates everyone's support and will be back with more updates soon.
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