Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"There's just a sea of difference between the two armies in so many respects."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukraine war news update for the morning of August 2nd, 2023. He starts with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
Russian losses for the previous day:
- 460 KIA (slight uptick)
- 1 tank, 8 APVs (drop in both categories)
- 27 artillery systems (heavy day, Ukrainians putting pressure on Russian artillery)
- 1 MLRS
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 15 drones
- 25 vehicles and fuel tanks
The 27 artillery pieces lost is significant as Ukrainians are targeting Russian artillery with counter-battery fire, HIMARS strikes, IEDs dropped from drones, and precision-guided munitions like the Excalibur round. 25 vehicles and fuel tanks hit shows Ukrainians are hammering Russian logistics.
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Comparative Losses
Andrew Perpetua's analysis of comparative losses based on videos shows near parity in types of vehicles lost between Russia and Ukraine. Notable is the loss of a Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter near Kherson, which is significant due to the trained crew lost as well. Oryx's figures show 26 Ukrainian losses vs 38 Russian losses, with Russians losing more IFVs, artillery and short-range air defense systems.
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Russian Lancet Drone Destroys Wooden IRIS-T Decoy
Footage shows a Russian Lancet drone destroying what appears to be a wooden decoy of a Ukrainian IRIS-T air defense system. The decoy rocks and breaks apart like wood with no explosive smoke, indicating it was an effective decoy in drawing the fire.
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Attacks on Russian Army Enlistment Offices
There has been a spate of arson attacks on Russian army enlistment offices, with 12 reported in 24 hours according to Russian media. Video footage shows a woman carrying Molotov cocktails as a man throws them at an office in Ulan-Ude. Another military conscription office was set on fire in St. Petersburg with police searching for the woman responsible. This is likely connected to videos of Russian soldiers complaining about conditions and treatment getting back to family members.
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Fires in Russia
Several large fires have been reported in Russia:
- Huge fire raging in an industrial zone in Moscow with warehouses burning
- Another massive fire near a Leroy Merlin store in Lubetsky near Moscow affecting 1,300 square meters
- Sawmill burning in the industrial zone in Bryansk
While fires in Russia are not unusual in the past year, some of these are quite substantial.
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Russian Use of Lancet Drones
Russians have significantly increased their use of Lancet drones in July, more than doubling the number of episodes compared to June. The number in July alone was greater than in all of 2022. Half the targets were claimed damaged and one-third destroyed, with artillery being the main target followed by tanks and armored vehicles. However, the high speed of the drones in the terminal phase makes it difficult to accurately hit moving vehicles. This rise is another step in Russia ramping up their industrial production of drones.
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Ukrainian Long-Range Strikes
Ukraine attacked Russia overnight with 23 Shahed drones, with some hitting grain facilities in Odesa and Izmail despite most being shot down. This damaged port infrastructure and will affect Ukraine's ability to export grain. Explosions were also reported in several areas:
- Dzhankoi area north of Simferopol in Crimea
- Sevastopol, with traffic on the Crimean bridge temporarily stopped
- Mariupol, with reports of Storm Shadow missiles being used and a rocket shot down
- Russian ammo depot hit near Makiivka in Donetsk, resulting in secondary explosions
HIMARS also struck Russian troop concentrations 5 times on a sandbar island south of Kherson, with claims of possibly over 100 casualties.
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Other News
- Video shows Russian demining unit using UR-77 mine-clearing line charges, indicating mines are still an issue
- Russian Wagner soldier sent to "denazify" Ukraine found to be covered in Nazi tattoos himself
- Horrific videos found on phone of dead Wagner member show them torturing and murdering a comrade, as well as humiliating others by making them wash hair with urine and drink it
- Politico article discusses challenges in Ukraine's counteroffensive, which is progressing slowly against stiff Russian resistance, 2nd and 3rd lines of defense, and constant mining by Russia
- Reports that more damage was done to Russian ships in drone attack on Crimea than Russia admitted, with sailors requesting evacuation and casualties reported
Wrap Up
Jonathan notes that while there are many reports of poor morale and conditions among Russian troops, with some isolated mutinies, it's important to connect this to the increasing attacks on conscription offices by angry family members. The more videos that get out showing this discontent, the more likely such resistance activities will occur. He wraps up this first of two updates for the day.
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