Ukraine War Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Massive Attack on Crimea
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Lying to the president is practically a job requirement at the Russian MOD."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00.000-00:24.160
Jonathan MS Pearce welcomes viewers to the ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update for the 2nd of May 2025, apologising for its lateness due to preparing information after a late night pub chat (available on the live tab) with members of a previous convoy to Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:37.760-01:33.340
Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on the previous day, with usual caveats:
- Personnel: 1,110 (around average).
- Tanks: 9 (around daily average).
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): 5 (a quarter of daily average).
- Artillery Systems: 50 (over double the daily average, consistently high).
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 4 (a very high number and good haul, well over daily average).
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 132 (consistently high).
Dell's Statistical Analysis: Russian APV vs Vehicle/Fuel Tank Losses
🎦 01:33.600-04:17.020
Jonathan shares data compiled by "Dell", a channel contributor, focusing on trends in Russian losses:
- APV Losses: The weekly average for APV losses is at its lowest since May 2023 (a two-year low). The trend line for APV losses is decreasing.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks Losses: This category is hitting new monthly average highs. The 30-day rolling average is 139.83 (nearly 140 vehicles lost daily). The trend line is significantly increasing.
- Jonathan's Analysis (via Dell): This suggests Russia is running out of APVs or anything with armour, resorting to any available vehicles. Jonathan quotes himself: "They would if they could; they aren't, so it's probably a good conclusion that they can't."
Covert Cabal Report: Russia Out of Self-Propelled Guns at Omsk Facility
🎦 04:19.020-04:52.940
Jonathan mentions a Covert Cabal video stating that Russia has run out of self-propelled guns at the Omsk facility. The transcript indicates Jonathan may have played a clip or there was a pause, as little further detail is transcribed for this segment.
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Front Line Update: Russian Infiltration Attempt in Pokrovsk Repelled
🎦 04:52.940-06:41.120
Jonathan discusses activity along the front line:
- Russian troops (a reconnaissance and sabotage group) infiltrated Pokrovsk, a key objective for Russia since capturing Avdiivka. Pokrovsk anchors important towns stretching north.
- They managed to cross no-man's land south of Pokrovsk and took shelter in a building on the city's edge on Tuesday.
- A Ukrainian drone from the 155th Mechanised Brigade spotted them, and the brigade destroyed the building.
- Russian military blogger Anatoly Radov confirmed the Russians were "caught".
- Jonathan notes that while the infiltration was repelled, it shows how close Russian forces are and the potential ease of infiltration, despite Ukraine's efforts to push them back around Pokrovsk.
Front Line Update: Ukrainian 8th SSO Regiment Crushes Russian Assault Near Chasiv Yar
🎦 06:41.620-07:12.600
- Ukraine's 8th Special Operations Forces (SSO) regiment crushed a Russian assault near Chasiv Yar.
- Footage released (due to OPSEC) shows them wiping out troops hiding in a basement with thermobaric grenades, seizing weapons, and enemy communications.
- Jonathan notes significant combat depicted in the footage.
GUR Unit "Primari" Hits High-Value Russian Assets in Crimea with USV-Launched FPV Drones
🎦 07:12.600-08:38.640
- The GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine) unit "Primari" hit high-value Russian assets in Crimea.
- Jonathan speculates these are FPV drones released from Sea Baby Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), attacking targets 15-20 km from the coastline.
- He suggests these assets were in Crimea because Russians thought they were safe, far from the front line.
- Assets destroyed include:
- S-300V surface-to-air missile system (a capable SAM).
- Obzor-3 radar.
- Kasta-2E2 radar (very high value).
- ST-68 radar.
- An "Invia" radar.
- Jonathan highlights this as really significant activity and expensive kit taken out.
Russian Innovation: Budget Kamikaze Drones from Hoverboards
🎦 08:38.640-09:12.800
- Russians have started creating budget kamikaze drones using hoverboards, metal frames, and armed with mines (e.g., a T-62 mine).
- This is seen as a Russian response to Ukrainian low-tech, low-cost drone solutions.
- Footage shows a small buggy-like drone blowing up a dugout.
Russian Milblogger Romanov: Gerasimov Lied to Putin About Kursk Oblast
🎦 09:13.580-10:35.456
- Russian milblogger Romanov is reportedly shocked that General Gerasimov told President Putin that Kursk Oblast was fully liberated while fighting still rages near the border.
- Jonathan comments on the irony: "Lying to the president is practically a job requirement at the Russian MOD."
- Jonathan had reported ongoing activity in Kursk, and Putin himself admitted it after initially denying Ukrainian presence.
- Romanov quotes an intelligence commander ("LEAGUE") from the 11th Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade, based on radio intercepts, stating Ukrainian forces are requesting withdrawal from positions on the Kursk-Sumy border but are being ignored.
- Another commander ("BARCUS") from the same brigade reported Ukrainian forces offering only focal resistance, with remaining platoon-sized elements (45 people) scattered.
- The milblogger sardonically questions Gerasimov's truthfulness to Putin, highlighting dismay among Russian commentators about official narratives.
Assassination Attempt on Ukrainian Drone Fundraiser Serhii Sternenko
🎦 10:37.336-12:20.635
- An assassination attempt was made on Serhii Sternenko, a prominent Ukrainian figure who raises significant funds for drones. Jonathan had considered interviewing him.
- Video shows a woman waiting for Sternenko, taking a shot at him as he exits a building.
- Sternenko was hit but managed to get into a vehicle and was driven to hospital. His bodyguard detained the woman.
- A bullet was removed during surgery, and he is reportedly okay.
- Police state the woman was paid by Russia, had rented an apartment in the same block, and conducted surveillance on Sternenko.
- This comes days after the return of the body of journalist Victoria Roshchyna, who was reportedly tortured to death by Russian captors.
- Jonathan notes this is possibly the fourth attempt on Sternenko's life, even predating the 2022 full-scale invasion, and expresses relief he is okay.
Russian Drone Attacks on Ukraine: Statistics and Interception Rates
🎦 12:24.875-15:37.736
Jonathan discusses Russian long-range drone attacks on Ukraine:
- Statistics (source: Tim): 16% of long-range drones got through defences overnight, a fairly steady percentage recently.
- 150 drones fired.
- 64 shot down.
- 62 stopped by electronic warfare (EW).
- This means 24 drones got through.
- Drone Payloads: Jonathan wonders how many drones that get through are actually armed with explosives, as some Shaheds are decoys or reconnaissance drones.
- Decreasing Interception Rates: Jonathan asked Ivan from "Carthage Ukraine" about this. Ivan suggested a "cat and mouse" scenario of measures and countermeasures.
- Jonathan's Analysis: He believes the drop in interception rates (from 0-5% success for drones to 15-30%) is a "perfect storm" due to:
- Russian tactics and tech improvements.
- Lack of Ukrainian interceptors and air defence systems (likely attrited as they are target number one for Russia).
- He emphasizes that 24 drones getting through nightly will cause problems.
Russian Strikes on Zaporizhzhia: Civilian Infrastructure Hit
🎦 15:38.095-15:57.155
- Zaporizhzhia was struck about 10 times the previous day.
- The number of wounded rose to 28 after Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.
- Homes, a university, and key facilities were damaged.
- Jonathan describes these as "really troubling views".
Zaporizhzhia: Locomotive Repair Plant Attacked
🎦 15:57.676-16:22.316
- Jonathan mentions a potential claim that Russia is also targeting railway infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia.
- Source: Euromaidan Press reports Russian forces attacked a civilian locomotive repair plant in Zaporizhzhia overnight with drones.
- No casualties were reported among staff, who were in shelters.
Viewer Account: Drone Attack Experience in Odesa
🎦 16:23.115-17:19.255
- Jonathan shares a comment from "March4Humanity," a channel supporter and viewer, who arrived in Odesa the previous day.
- March4Humanity described waking up to "crazy like a swarm" drone sounds, hearing missiles, defensive fire, and about four explosions nearby.
- Jonathan wishes them safety and acknowledges how scary a first-hand experience of drone attacks must be.
Odesa Drone Strike Destroys Women's Clothing Business
🎦 17:19.916-18:43.616
- Anton Gerashchenko reports a massive drone strike on Odesa completely destroyed the workshop of an Odesa-based women's clothing brand, including clothes, equipment, and materials.
- Jonathan speculates this wasn't a genuine military target and could have been a random hit or a drone brought down by EW/conventional means.
- He emphasizes the heartbreaking impact: loss of livelihood for the owner and employees, and the broader economic disruption.
Ukrainian Mi-8 Helicopter Downs Drone at Close Range
🎦 18:44.216-19:05.275
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter destroying a drone at very close range, presumably with machine gun fire. He notes the risk involved in such a close engagement.
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Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack Overwhelms Crimean Defences
🎦 19:06.075-24:40.431
Jonathan reports on a major Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea overnight, which he believes "absolutely hammered" the peninsula:
- Multiple Locations Hit (source: Tim White, Kyiv Independent, Krymsky Veter, Max24, War Translated): Explosions reported in Sevastopol, Dzhankoi, Saki, Novofedorivka, Kacha, Yevpatoria, Hvardiiske (near Simferopol) and other locations, significantly exceeding usual volume. Many of these host military airbases.
- Kacha Airbase: Footage shows it "very much glowing". Satellite heat monitors picked up a growing blaze in Ulovoye, 7km from Kacha, possibly from a Russian air defence missile mistake.
- Hvardiiske Airfield: Reported strike despite being well-protected. Video allegedly shows a direct hit.
- Russian MoD Claims: Reported shooting down 89 drones over Crimea and 23 over the Black Sea (total 112). Jonathan is sceptical given the visible explosions.
- Ammunition Depot Hit: Reports of an ammunitions depot being hit with secondary detonations (source: Anton Gerashchenko, Crimean Wind).
- Civilian Impact: Tim White notes Russians are still holidaying in Crimea (e.g., at Koktebel near Feodosia), with long queues on the Kerch Bridge, despite it being a war zone.
- Targeting: Jonathan and a commenter note that Ukrainian attacks focus on military targets, unlike Russian terror tactics against civilians.
- Kerch Bridge: Was not closed initially but shut later for almost 2.5 hours (4:15 AM to 6:40 AM local time). No attack reported near the bridge itself.
- Furious Air Defence: Footage shows intense Russian air defence fire across the peninsula.
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Space Intelligence Facility in Stavropol Krai
🎦 24:43.591-28:41.771
- A successful Ukrainian drone attack appears to have occurred in Stavropol Krai, Russia.
- Target: The "Zvezda" object, a Russian space intelligence facility in Moskovskoye (just north of Stavropol). This is described as one of the main stations of Russia's space electronic intelligence system, part of GRU strategic architecture since the 1970s, intercepting satellite signals and conducting cyber espionage.
- Footage shows a large drone approaching and then an explosion.
- Tim White's observation: Russians film these attacks openly, knowing Ukrainian drones don't target civilians, contrasting with Russian attacks in Ukraine.
- Impact (source: Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation via War Translated): One hit confirmed from three drones.
- Jonathan's Analysis: Even if damage is minimal, such attacks force Russia to reallocate scarce air defence systems to protect these high-value sites, exposing other areas (the "blanket not big enough for the bed" analogy). It's about signalling capability and forcing Russian panic and resource diversion in a "game of whack-a-mole."
Ukrainian Cyber Attack: Major Russian ISPs in Siberia Disrupted
🎦 28:44.851-29:02.471
- Ukrainian intelligence (GUR MO cyber units) reportedly took down several major Russian ISPs, including "Sipset," leaving thousands without internet in Siberia.
- The attacks occurred between April 30th and May 2nd (source: RBC).
- Jonathan calls this "good news".
Prisoners of War: 10,000 Ukrainians Confirmed Held by Russia
🎦 29:02.571-29:44.951
- Irina Vereshchuk (Ukrainian official) confirms approximately 8,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 2,000 civilians are held by Russia.
- Some returnees in exchanges were never previously acknowledged by Russia, offering hope for families of those listed as missing.
- Jonathan notes the significance of 8,000 soldiers who could be on the front line.
ISW Report: Russia Planning Mass Deportation of 80,000 Ukrainian Children
🎦 29:50.051-30:05.431
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Russia is planning the deportation of as many as 80,000 children from occupied Ukraine.
- This is being done under the guise of "summer camps," some of which will be located in high-risk zones of Crimea.
US Politics: Trump Fires Security Advisor Mike Waltz Amid "Signalgate"
🎦 30:33.971-33:58.326
Jonathan discusses US political developments (hypothetical 2025 scenario):
- President Trump has reportedly fired/demoted his National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz (referred to as "Walls" in transcript), moving him to be UN Ambassador, a role Jonathan says Trump despises.
- Jonathan views this as a net loss for Ukraine, as Waltz, despite flaws, is seen as more expert than potential MAGA replacements like billionaire real estate mogul Steve Witkoff.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio is named interim National Security Advisor, which Jonathan suggests could be a "poison chalice."
- The demotion is linked to "Signalgate," where Waltz was allegedly caught creating Signal chat groups and improperly sharing sensitive information with individuals like Pete Hegseth (who then created his own insecure chats) and journalist Jeffrey Goldberg.
- Jonathan speculates Pete Hegseth might also be on his way out.
- Tim White notes that Reuters photographed Waltz checking his Signal account during a cabinet meeting after the demotion, with contacts including Tulsi Gabbard, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio, and JD Vance, suggesting he may not have learned his lesson.
Russian Economy: Budget Deficit Forecast Triples for 2025
🎦 33:58.326-35:09.867
Russia faces worsening economic forecasts for 2025:
- Budget Deficit: Forecast tripled from 0.5% to 1.7% of GDP (from 1.2 trillion to 3.8 trillion roubles). Russia is not earning enough to cover costs.
- Oil and Gas Revenues: Forecast reduced from 10.94 trillion to 8.32 trillion roubles.
- Inflation: Estimate increased from 4.5% to 7.6%.
- Urals Oil Price: Forecast reduced from $69.7 to $56 per barrel.
- Rouble Exchange Rate: Adjusted from 96.5 to 94.3 roubles per US dollar.
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated defence spending will not be reduced.
- Jonathan speculates welfare will be hit, hopefully leading to public discontent.
Ukrainian Economy: Naftogaz Reports Large Profit Increase in 2024
🎦 35:10.626-35:38.907
- Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas giant, reported a net profit of $913 million for 2024.
- This marks a 64% increase from the previous year.
- Jonathan contrasts this with Gazprom's situation and Russia's oil price woes.
CNN Report: Putin May Shift to Short-Term Goals, Focus on Economy
🎦 35:38.907-36:18.927
- CNN reports that US intelligence suggests President Putin may shift focus in the Ukraine war to short-term goals: holding seized land and fixing Russia's economy.
- This is seen by some US officials as a possible opening for peace talks, though skepticism remains.
- Jonathan links this to Russia's economic problems.
Shifting US Stance on Ukraine War Mediation and Involvement
🎦 36:18.927-38:42.427
Jonathan discusses evolving US rhetoric regarding the Ukraine war under a hypothetical Trump presidency in 2025:
- Marco Rubio (on Fox News): Stated the US wants a "swift breakthrough" in Ukraine talks, otherwise Trump will decide how much more time to spend on it. Claimed "there's no military solution."
- JD Vance: Stated, "Even Trump can't settle it. Both sides must rethink their approach." Jonathan sees this as an admission of Trump's limitations or lies about solving the war in 24 hours.
- State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce: Announced the US is shifting focus from Ukraine war mediation: "We are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings. We will not be the mediators." However, she confirmed no sanctions on Russia are being removed.
- Jonathan's Analysis: He sees the US "inching away" from being central to resolving the conflict, and Trump potentially getting bored and deeming it intractable after failing to deliver a quick solution.
US-Ukraine Minerals Deal: Ratification and Trump's "Security Guarantee" Remarks
🎦 38:43.966-39:49.766
- The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) plans to vote on the ratification of a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine on May 8th.
- President Trump commented on the deal: "It's also good for them, for Ukraine, because you will have an American presence at the site. And the American presence will, I think, keep a lot of bad actors... out of the area where we're doing the digging."
- Jonathan dismisses Trump's statement as "hogwash" and "absolute nonsense," arguing an American commercial presence offers no real security guarantee against Russian military action, citing past instances.
Timeline for US-Ukraine Minerals Deal Fund
🎦 39:50.626-40:10.466
- Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko stated the US-Ukraine minerals deal fund could begin operating within months, "definitely not years."
- She mentioned that "Alta" (possibly misheard for "Allies" or "they") asked for this to be done as soon as possible, but prediction is difficult.
Wrap up
🎦 40:12.106-41:10.206
- Jonathan summarises the update, highlighting significant strikes, particularly in Crimea, and anticipates more news on their impact.
- He encourages support for the "Cars for Ukraine" campaign, noting the channel is currently fourth among YouTubers in fundraising efforts.
- He thanks specific supporters: Donal Wall, Tahir, Cathy Sommer, Ricky Lucas, and others.
- The donation link is atpgeo.com/donate.
- He signs off with "Toodle-pips."
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The transcript segment "software, qued." (04:27.940 - 04:32.860) followed by a long empty segment (04:32.860 - 04:52.940) for the Covert Cabal video topic was unusual. I assumed Jonathan played a video or there was a pause and summarised based on the lead-in sentence.
The name "Mike Walls" for Trump's security advisor (00:30:40.071) is consistently used in the transcript; it might be a mishearing of Mike Waltz, but I have used "Walls" as per transcript, noting the potential alternative.
The word "Alta" (39:57.927) in Yulia Sviridenko's quote about the minerals deal timeline is unclear. It could be a mishearing for "Allies," "They," or a specific entity. I have noted it as per the transcript.
Spellings of some Crimean/Russian locations like "Fardiska" were interpreted based on common targets (Hvardiiske). "Invia radar" is not a commonly known system; I used the transcript spelling. "Sipset" ISP was also used as per transcript.
The transcript refers to "Cars for Ukraine" at the end (40:32.387); I have used this.
Overall, the transcript was largely clear, with the above points being minor ambiguities or requiring careful interpretation.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
The user wants me to summarise a YouTube video transcript from ATP Geopolitics for a project called "ATP Distilled". I need to follow a specific XML structure and British English.
My plan is:
TASK 1: Title, Date, and Part
Extract the title from "Ukraine War Update (20250502a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Massive Attack on Crimea".
Format the date "20250502" to "02/05/2025".
Extract the part "a".
Output using ``, ``, and `` tags.
- TASK 2: Topic Titles
- Go through the transcript chronologically.
- The first topic will be "Hello Team".
- Identify distinct topics based on subject changes.
- Create specific, quantified, and granular topic titles.
- Use Ukrainian spellings (e.g., Kyiv, Odesa, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar).
- The last topic will be "Wrap up".
- Use `
` tags.
- TASK 3: Topic Timestamps
- For each topic, record the start and end timestamps from the transcript.
- Format as MM:SS or HH:MM:SS.
- Use `
` tags, matching the ID from the topic title. - Ensure the entire video duration is covered without large gaps.
- TASK 4: Topic Summaries
- For each topic, write a bullet-point summary.
- Include key points, Jonathan's insights, analysis, and opinions.
- Credit sources mentioned (e.g., Dell, Tim White, Covert Cabal, ISW, CNN, Anton Gerashchenko, March4Humanity, Krymsky Veter, Max24, War Translated, RBC).
- Correct spellings (e.g., "Piss" to "Pearce", "Prokrosk" to "Pokrovsk", "Adyvka" to "Avdiivka", "Chezivyar" to "Chasiv Yar", "Walls" to "Waltz" if contextually clear as a known figure, but transcript uses "Walls" so I will stick to that for the summary, noting potential mishearing). "Moskovskaya"/"Moskosvoia" likely "Moskovskoye". "Vukovna Rada" to "Verkhovna Rada". "Car for Ukraine" sounds like "Cars for Ukraine".
- Use British English.
- Use markdown for emphasis sparingly.
- Use `` tags.
- TASK 5: Quote
- Select a significant or poignant quote from Jonathan.
- Ensure it's concise and makes sense out of context.
- Correct any errors in the quote.
- Use `
` tags.
- TASK 6: Queries
- Note any parts of the transcript or tasks I didn't understand.
- The segment "software, qued." (04:27.940 - 04:32.860) followed by a long pause/empty segment (04:32.860 - 04:52.940) before the next topic is unusual. I will assume Jonathan played a video or there was a technical pause, and summarise based on the lead-in.
- If everything else is clear, I will state that.
- Use `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` tags.
