Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Huge Radar & Eqpt Destruction
Table of Contents 📖
"The U.S. does not provide us with intelligence, says Zelensky. Ukraine will not know where the Russian ballistic missiles are flying."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update and apologises for a technical error with an earlier video in which he recorded the wrong screen! He was particularly annoyed as he felt it was a good analysis and mentions it included an assessment of how Trump looked in a recent interview.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-01:42⏩
Jonathan shares the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, reminding viewers that the usual caveats apply and can be found in the video description. The figures are:
- 1,060 personnel
- 12 tanks
- 14 troop-carrying AFVs
- 64 artillery systems
- 1 multiple launch rocket system
- 111 vehicles and fuel tanks
Jonathan notes that, whilst some of the figures are high, personnel losses are down. There are no Andrew Perpetua loss lists today.
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Ukrainian advances into Belgorod
🎦 01:42-03:05⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces have once again advanced into the Belgorod region of Russia, referencing information from Altois, who suggests that Ukrainian forces are looking to replicate the Sudzha scenario, aiming to advance as far into Russian territory as possible with the aim of reaching a major population centre. Jonathan refers to Andrew Perpetua's mapping update which shows that the attack was launched near Demidovka, close to the incursion into Kursk, just 20km south of Kyiv and Pelykovo. The area of the incursion is small but footage has emerged of a Ukrainian Bradley fighting vehicle that has been hit by a Lancet drone in the area.
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Russian Helicopter Losses
🎦 03:05-03:33⏩
Jonathan reports an unconfirmed claim from Fighter Bomber that a Russian helicopter has been lost. This is usually reliable information and the expectation is that the helicopter has been shot down. No further details are available as yet.
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Ukrainian drone attacks in Crimea
🎦 03:33-07:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian intelligence has released footage of successful attacks against a number of high-value Russian targets, including radars and air defence systems, carried out by Ukrainian FPV drones launched from sea drones deep behind Russian lines in Crimea. It's not possible to verify what level of damage was inflicted on the equipment but the footage is impressive! Jonathan lists the targets as:
- 2 Podliot radars
- 2 Neobium radars
- 3 Castor radars
- 1 Inver radar
- 1 Nebo SV
- 1 S300VM
- 1 Nebo M
- 1 Protivnik
- 1 Mies radar
- 1 S-300SV air defence system launcher
- 1 SD-68 radar command post
- 3 Pantsir S-1 air defence systems
- Project S-4236 transport and tug vessel
- Theodore Uyghur pin universal tug
- Mi-8 helicopter
Jonathan is impressed by the success of these attacks, commenting on the effectiveness of using drones as repeaters. He also reports the crash of an Mi-8 helicopter in the Leningrad region of Russia, killing the two crew members on board.
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Gimlas taking out Coxan artillery
🎦 07:17-07:48⏩
Video footage has been released of Ukrainian forces destroying three North-Korean supplied Coxan self-propelled guns using Gimlas guided multiple-launch rocket systems - similar to HIMARS - which fire missiles that scatter cluster munitions over the target. The extent of the damage to the enemy equipment isn't known but it was another successful strike.
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Ukrainian F-16s close to the front line
🎦 07:48-08:46⏩
Jonathan notes that, whilst montages showing the destruction of equipment are impressive, it's often difficult to know when the footage was filmed. He goes on to highlight interesting footage of a Ukrainian F-16 flying in the skies over Sumy, just 35km from the front line with the Kursk region. This suggests that the Ukrainian air force are now deploying fast jets in a close air support role.
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The efficiency of drone warfare
🎦 08:46-09:15⏩
Jonathan quotes from a comment made by Andrew Perpetua about how drones are now being used to repurpose old weapons, turning them into highly effective precision-guided munitions, making this a very efficient way to wage war.
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Russian drone attacks - did Russia shoot down their own drones?!
🎦 09:15-10:40⏩
Jonathan reports that 145 Shahed drones were launched by Russian forces overnight. Of these 72 were shot down and 56 were lost in location, meaning that 17 drones got through. He questions how the Russians managed to shoot down seven of their own drones, as they claim, which would have been on their way to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
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Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure
🎦 10:40-12:45⏩
Despite Putin giving assurances that he would stop targeting civilian infrastructure, an energy facility in Slovyansk was hit, with reports of rosy skies suggesting a significant fire. Attacks also took place in the Sumy, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions. Jonathan questions whether wildfires reported in the Odessa region were started by debris from downed drones or missiles. He concludes that this is typical behaviour from Putin, who cannot be trusted to keep his word.
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Jonathan needs more tea!
🎦 12:45-12:50⏩
Jonathan remarks that his tea is cold.
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Ukrainian strike on Russian oil pumping station
🎦 12:50-15:23⏩
Jonathan reports a successful Ukrainian strike against the Kavkazskaya oil pumping station in the Krasnodar region of Russia. The attack caused a large fire, damaging the pipeline between storage tanks. As of this morning the facility is no longer operational.
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Earlier Ukrainian strike on the Druzhba pipeline
🎦 15:23-18:42⏩
Jonathan reports an earlier Ukrainian attack on the Unetsha oil pumping station which resulted in the destruction of the substation supplying it with power, effectively shutting it down. This pumping station is a key hub for the Druzhba pipeline, a major export route for Russian oil. Jonathan analyses the pipeline routes, explaining that, whilst this attack successfully closed down a key section of the pipeline, other branches are still likely to be operational.
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What leverage does the US have over Ukraine?
🎦 18:42-20:22⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by Max24 in which it was claimed that Zelensky had stated that the US doesn't share intelligence with Ukraine. Jonathan finds this hard to believe as Kyiv is very well protected from air attack, suggesting that intelligence must be being shared. He speculates on what the US could be withholding to give them leverage over Zelensky, concluding that, as military aid will soon run out, perhaps the US is using the threat of withdrawing air defence support for Kyiv. If Kyiv is no longer protected this would have a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to function. Jonathan believes this to be the reason that Zelensky is trying so hard to appease Trump.
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Sabotage of Norwegian oil pipeline
🎦 20:22-21:12⏩
Jonathan reports that, in other news, there has been a massive oil leak from a pipeline in Norway. Sabotage is suspected and appears to be an almost daily occurrence in a number of European countries. Russia is believed to be behind this.
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UTELSAT - a European alternative to Starlink?
🎦 21:12-22:12⏩
Jonathan reports that UTELSAT, a European competitor to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service, has announced that it already has complete coverage of Ukraine and is ready to step in if Trump pulls the plug on Starlink. Jonathan speculates that Europe will want to give UTELSAT a leg up, as part of their move away from reliance on the US for military equipment and technology.
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US suspends efforts to counter Russian sabotage
🎦 22:12-23:04⏩
In further evidence of the US aligning with Russia, efforts to counter Russian sabotage are being scaled back or suspended as the Trump administration moves closer to Putin. Jonathan is shocked by this news.
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Kremlin wants to work with Elon Musk
🎦 23:04-24:44⏩
Jonathan reports that the Kremlin is looking to work with Elon Musk. Kirill Dmitriev, who is in charge of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, has announced that he is to hold meetings with Musk to discuss collaboration on projects such as flying to Mars. Jonathan believes that this is about money, with Russia seeking to exploit Musk's need for rare earth metals for his space programme in return for favours.
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Zelensky in Finland
🎦 24:44-26:44⏩
Jonathan reports that Zelensky is in Finland for talks with Alexander Stubb, a staunch supporter of Ukraine. In a press conference Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not target Russian infrastructure if Russia refrained from doing the same. He also confirmed that Ukraine will be sending a technical delegation to the next meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the details of a temporary ceasefire.
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Ukraine will not negotiate without a seat at the table
🎦 26:44-27:10⏩
Jonathan highlights Zelensky's comment that any peace negotiations must include Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:10-28:03⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and apologises again for the issues with the earlier video. He mentions that he has interviews scheduled for Thursday with Malcolm Nance and on Friday with Mikki Esvili about Georgia. He encourages viewers to watch the interviews and thanks them for their support.
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