Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's just absolutely ridiculous so anyway yeah there is that"
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologises for the late video as he was up until 1:30 am working on book submissions and had a live interview after a 7-hour shift. Despite the busy schedule, he is here to provide the update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian official figures, Russia lost 540 troops, 0 tanks, 10 APCs, 7 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, and 5 drones in the past day. Jonathan notes that while these numbers may be inaccurate, they provide a sense of the trend. He highlights that the loss of 10 APCs is significant but lower than the average daily loss over the course of the war.
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Ukrainian Defence Forces Return to Duty
According to the President of the National Academy of Medical Sciences, 82% of wounded and sick members of the Ukrainian defence forces are returned to duty after treatment. Jonathan questions the timeframe for this statistic, as it would depend on the length of treatment.
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Cancelled Russian Victory Day Parades
British intelligence reports that several Russian regions bordering Ukraine and occupied Crimea have cancelled their usually high-profile Victory Day military parades on May 9th, likely due to security concerns. However, some Russian cities further from Ukraine still plan to hold the events. This highlights a sensitive communications challenge for the Kremlin, as the message of honouring previous generations could blur into exposing the scope of recent losses in Ukraine, which the Kremlin attempts to cover up.
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Russia Losing Electronic Warfare Units
Russia is increasingly losing their electronic warfare (EW) units. A single HIMARS missile releasing tungsten ball bearings eliminated a Russian R-330Zh Zhitel EW system located deep in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast. Jonathan finds it fascinating that a high-value target like this would be hit by a HIMARS missile, which is typically used against troop accumulations or ammunition depots. As Russians adapt and place things further back from the front lines, HIMARS are being used to hit a greater variety of targets.
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Russian Tank Spotted in the USA
A Russian T-90A tank captured by Ukrainian forces last year in the Kharkiv region has been spotted in Louisiana, USA. It appears the tank was handed over to the Americans for research purposes. This is not the first time such an exchange has occurred, as the Russians have also sent captured Ukrainian equipment to Iran.
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Russian Claims of Destroying Bradley Fighting Vehicles
Russian sources claim to have destroyed four Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, but Jonathan doubts the veracity of this claim. To his knowledge, the Bradleys are not yet on the front line and are still involved in training in Germany and Poland. He believes that if the Russians had destroyed these vehicles, they would have provided footage as it would be a significant PR win. However, he acknowledges there is a non-zero chance that the claim could be true.
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Fire at Moscow Farmer's Market
According to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, a fire broke out in a farmer's market building in Khimki, Moscow. Jonathan questions whether this incident is directly linked to the war, part of an intentional act, or an insurance job. He notes that these fires are happening frequently and affecting various types of buildings and organisations across Russia, suggesting that there is an underlying cause.
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Russian Strikes on Ukraine
The Russians continue to use S-300 surface-to-air missiles in a ground-to-ground mode to strike targets in Ukraine. When used this way, the missiles are far less accurate, with a large circular error probable (CEP). This leads to a higher likelihood of hitting residential buildings, which the Ukrainians claim is occurring and provide evidence for. However, Jonathan notes that both sides often accuse the other of targeting civilian infrastructure while downplaying strikes on military targets.
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Intelligence Leaks
A UK defence official has stated that a significant proportion of the content in the recently leaked classified US intelligence reports is untrue, manipulated, or both. Analysts are closely examining these leaks, with differing opinions on their potential impact on the war. Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov acknowledged that the leaks contain a mix of true and false information, but claimed that the true information is already outdated.
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UK Surveillance Aircraft Incident
The leaks reveal that a Russian jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September, but the missile malfunctioned. The incident was more serious than initially portrayed and could have been considered an act of war. According to US defence officials, the Russian pilot misinterpreted instructions from a ground-based radar operator and thought he had permission to fire. If the missile had functioned properly, it could have led to the surveillance aircraft being shot down and potentially triggered NATO involvement in the war.
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New Private Military Company in Bakhmut Area
According to a thread by Twitter user Tatarigami_UA, a new private military company (PMC) has been introduced in the Bakhmut area to improve the situation for Russian forces. This PMC is training a substantial number of new mercenaries and is engaged in various activities such as assaults, reconnaissance, ambushes, and sabotage. Several hundred of these newly trained mercenaries are expected to be deployed soon. The existence of this PMC is likely to become publicly known in the near future, despite current limitations on disclosing further details.
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Wagner Mercenaries Recruiting Children in Mariupol
In occupied Mariupol, southern Ukraine, Wagner mercenaries are reportedly recruiting and training school children. Jonathan expresses his strong disapproval of this practice.
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Iranian Equipment Used by Russian Forces
There is evidence that Russian forces are using Iranian-made body armour and helmets, which appear to be copies of the German Schuberth B826 helmet. This is another indication of the growing military cooperation between Russia and Iran over the past year.
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Trump Interview on Russian Propaganda Networks
Russian state TV propagandists have aired multiple clips of Donald Trump's interview with Tucker Carlson, claiming that Trump proposed for America to surrender and that Moscow has already won the economic war. Jonathan notes that this provides fuel for Russian propaganda and finds it problematic.
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US Concerns Over Hungary-Russia Relations
The US Ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, expressed concern over Hungarian leaders seeking closer ties with Russia despite its aggression in Ukraine. He stated that close economic cooperation with Russia fuels the Russian war machine and threatens the security of the transatlantic alliance. Jonathan comments that money and ideology often trump morality in human actions and activities.
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South Africa's Dilemma with Putin's Arrest Warrant
The International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin has created a dilemma for South Africa, which is set to host the BRICS summit. As a signatory to the ICC, South Africa is obligated to arrest Putin if he attends the summit. However, South Africa appears to prioritise its ties with Russia and other BRICS nations over its moral and legal obligations. Jonathan criticises this stance, comparing it to housing a suspected murderer and not allowing the police to intervene.
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US Concerns Over UN Secretary-General's Stance on Russia
Leaked classified documents suggest that the US believes UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is too accommodating of Russian interests. The files indicate that Washington has been closely monitoring Guterres, who reportedly expressed dismay at EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's call for Europe to produce more weapons and ammunition. Jonathan notes that there has been criticism of the UN's lack of strong action against Russia, with many arguing that the organisation lacks teeth and is not fit for purpose due to Russia's permanent seat on the Security Council.
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Putin's Approval of US Journalist's Arrest
According to Bloomberg, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally approved the arrest of American journalist Evan Gershkovich on espionage charges. The Wall Street Journal reporter's arrest is widely believed to be baseless and appears to be an attempt by Russia to gain leverage over the US. Jonathan suggests that Russia is likely to benefit from this tactic, as they are willing to engage in overtly wrong actions, while the US is less likely to resort to such measures.
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Swiss Banks Warn Russian Clients
Under pressure from the US and G7 countries, Swiss banks have begun warning Russian clients about closing their accounts if they pay taxes to the Russian budget. Switzerland has faced criticism for not freezing enough Russian assets, and Jonathan hopes that this move will have a meaningful impact on Russian finances.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the video by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and share. He also mentions that he will be posting a frontline update soon and possibly an extra video later, despite his busy schedule.
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