Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine forming new brigades when all the existing brigades are brittle due to a lack of infantry is the main reason Russia advances. Creating new brigades, which are then broken up, creates a bunch of useless commands, a total waste of manpower."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update, specifically part two for the 8th of January 2025. He intends to focus on military aid, starting with a substantial package hinted at by the US.
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US Hints at Significant Military Aid Package for Ukraine
🎦 00:20-01:11⏩
The Associated Press reports that US President Biden will soon announce a new significant military aid package for Ukraine. The exact amount is unconfirmed but is expected to be substantial. There is speculation about whether the package will exhaust the remaining presidential drawdown authority, which could amount to around $4 billion. Some doubt the package will be that large. The Pentagon is set to make an announcement during the upcoming Ramstein meeting. Zelensky mentions numerous meetings in preparation for Ramstein, emphasizing the importance of negotiations regarding Ukraine's EU accession and overall European security. He expresses hope for a productive year regarding EU relations, but notes that signals from the US have been inconsistent.
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Concerns over Potential Shift in US Support for Ukraine under Trump
🎦 01:11-04:14⏩
Jonathan suggests that Keith Kellogg's cancelled fact-finding mission to Kyiv could be a negative sign regarding future US support for Ukraine. He expresses concern over the US statement that military intervention in Panama and Greenland alongside Denmark is not off the table, viewing this as potentially undermining NATO and unified support for Ukraine. Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk and the rhetoric surrounding US involvement in the conflict. He highlights Shashank Joshi's report that Trump's transition team has been contacting Pentagon officials, warning them their jobs are at risk, particularly those in a section led by Cooper that liaises with the coalition supporting Ukraine. Jonathan interprets this as a sign that support for Ukraine from the US government may be diminishing, emphasizing the concerning nature of these developments.
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UK Parliament Discusses Using Frozen Russian Assets to Aid Ukraine
🎦 04:14-05:10⏩
On a more positive note, Jonathan commends UK Member of Parliament Mike Martin for his efforts to seize $300 billion of frozen Russian assets and allocate them to Ukraine. Martin's motion in the House of Commons urges the UK government to collaborate with allies in seizing these assets for the benefit of Ukraine's defense.
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International Military Aid Updates: Iceland, Denmark, Rheinmetall
🎦 05:10-07:24⏩
- Iceland, despite having no standing army, has allocated over $2 million to support the production of Ukrainian weaponry. This funding aligns with a Danish initiative to bolster Ukraine's arms manufacturing through a dedicated Ukraine Fund.
- Ukraine has received its first KF-41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle from Rheinmetall for field testing before full-scale production potentially begins in Ukraine. While the prospect of Ukrainian production is positive, Jonathan emphasizes the need for urgency and immediate deployment of these vehicles.
- Further details from Germanator Ukraine reveal that Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papager confirmed the Lynx delivery to FAZ. The vehicle will undergo trials in Ukraine before any series order is placed. However, the financing of such an order, potentially costing hundreds of millions or even billions of euros, remains unclear. Jonathan suggests that licensed production in Ukraine could be a more cost-effective solution.
Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV) and Demining Efforts
🎦 07:24-08:14⏩
- Jonathan predicts increased use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in the conflict, noting both Russia and Ukraine are developing various types.
- He highlights a Ukrainian combat UGV equipped with a machine gun and a towing platform for logistics and evacuation.
- Norway has pledged €14 million for demining initiatives in Ukraine, including a training center in Romney established in collaboration with Norsk Folkehjelp and Ukraine's SES.
Ukraine's Use of Electronic Warfare and Development of Countermeasures
🎦 08:14-09:10⏩
- Tim White credits NATO-supplied electronic warfare for facilitating Ukraine's recent advances into Kursk.
- He reveals that Ukraine's Radar Lab is on the verge of deploying its own electronic warfare technology.
- Successful testing of low-power radio frequency countermeasures for common drones has been reported.
- In Kursk, Russia's only effective drone deployments have been fiber-optic tethered drones. Radar Lab Ukraine is actively developing techniques to counter this threat.
- Jonathan encourages viewers to follow Radar Lab Ukraine's progress through their new website and mentions individuals associated with the project, such as Greg Wolfe on Blue Sky.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Different Air Defence Systems
🎦 09:10-11:09⏩
- Jonathan discusses the cost-effectiveness of different air defense systems, referencing a previous query about the relative cost of using F-16s versus NASAMS or Patriot systems to shoot down missiles.
- He emphasizes the trade-off between cost and capability. Brandon Clark, a commenter, points out that NASAMS utilizes AIM-120 AMRAAMs (air-to-air missiles) launched from the ground, resulting in a reduced range compared to air-launched missiles.
- Jonathan explains that ground-launched air-to-air missiles have less range due to starting from a static position and needing to achieve altitude and speed.
- He compares the AIM-120 missiles used by both F-16s and NASAMS, noting that F-16s can also fire the cheaper AIM-9 Sidewinder missile and utilize a 20mm cannon, which is even more cost-effective.
- However, Jonathan acknowledges that operating an F-16 is inherently expensive, whereas a SAM system is limited to protecting a single area. Ultimately, he concludes that the decision comes down to balancing cost versus the required capabilities.
Limitations of F-16s in Countering Russian Glide Bombs
🎦 11:09-12:15⏩
- Jonathan thanks Brandon for his input and then addresses a comment from Max 24 quoting Yuri Ihnat, former spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, who states that F-16s are incapable of protecting frontline regions from Russian glide bombs.
- Ihnat explains that Ukrainian F-16 modifications lack the necessary radar and missile range to effectively counter Russian aircraft carrying these bombs.
Update on ATP Geopolitics Fundraising and Vehicle Donation to Ukraine
🎦 12:15-12:57⏩
- Jonathan announces an upcoming live stream with Jonathan Fink to discuss the successful "Car for Ukraine" fundraising campaign.
- He expresses excitement about the three vehicles that will be sent to Ukraine, similar to a previously delivered vehicle modified into a rocket launcher.
- Jonathan shares an image of the modified vehicle, highlighting the addition of stabilizers. He celebrates the vehicle's deployment in Ukraine and expresses hope that it is already in active service.
Analysis of Ukraine's Mobilization Strategy
🎦 12:57-15:16⏩
- Shifting focus to personnel matters, Jonathan cites Thomas Tyner's criticism of Ukraine's mobilization strategy, describing it as putting "the cart before the horse."
- Tyner highlights the issue of existing brigades lacking sufficient infantry, emphasizing that wars cannot be won without it.
- He criticizes Ukraine's practice of using newly mobilized troops to form new brigades while existing ones suffer heavy losses on the front lines.
- According to Tyner, newly formed brigades are quickly broken up to replenish depleted units, leading to ineffective mobilization.
- Tyner suggests two alternative approaches: either deploy new brigades as whole units to replace depleted ones (allowing the latter to rebuild) or establish "marching battalions" solely to reinforce existing units.
- He illustrates these concepts with historical examples, such as the Italian Army during World War I, which used marching battalions to rapidly replenish brigades suffering heavy losses on the Isonzo front, and the US Army in World War II, which focused on training replacements to maintain existing divisions' strength after August 1943.
- Tyner concludes that Ukraine's formation of new brigades while existing ones are understrength is a primary factor in Russia's advances. He argues that this practice wastes manpower and creates unnecessary command structures. Instead, Ukraine should prioritize training replacement infantry for its current brigades.
- Jonathan acknowledges that this is not a new concern but finds Tyner's detailed analysis valuable.
Wrap up
🎦 15:16-15:26⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
- He reminds viewers about the upcoming live stream discussing the fundraising campaign and bids farewell.