Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It gets old that people are this stupid. Getting fooled once is okay; getting fooled literally every single time this crap happens makes you an idiot."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers, mentioning that the video is a little late today due to the high volume of content. He briefly discusses experimenting with YouTube Shorts, thanking "Benny Pie" for their assistance.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Reports Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:49-02:02⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's daily report on Russian losses, noting significant figures: over 1,080 personnel (slightly lower than recent trends), a low number of tank losses (1), and a higher than average loss of artillery systems (41). He speculates that the high number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost (74) could indicate wider attacks or logistical disruptions.
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Pentagon Report on Russian Losses
🎦 02:02-05:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a Pentagon report claiming Russian losses exceeding 600,000 (killed and wounded) in the first year of the war, exceeding total Soviet losses in any conflict since World War II. This aligns broadly with Ukrainian figures (665,000). Jonathan emphasises that intelligence reports on losses rely heavily on data from the Ukrainian General Staff. He explains that while intelligence agencies analyse social media and satellite imagery, they lack independent means to verify every casualty on the ground.
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Unconfirmed Claims of Russian Deserters
🎦 05:06-05:53⏩
Jonathan addresses a claim from journalist John Sweeney regarding potential Russian deserters, said to number 100,000. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the figure's timeframe and reliability. While acknowledging desertions are likely in any war, he suggests the claimed scale seems improbable, questioning whether it's misinformation.
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Russian Yak-130 Training Aircraft Loss
🎦 05:53-06:26⏩
Jonathan reports the loss of a Russian Yak-130 training aircraft in the Volgograd region during a training exercise. The crew ejected safely. Jonathan highlights this as a long-term setback for Russia's pilot training capacity rather than an immediate impact on the frontline.
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Losses Confirmed by Russia's "Freedom Fighters"
🎦 06:26-07:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement from the "Liberty of Russia Legion" (a Russian anti-Putin fighting force) confirming their losses in Kharkiv Oblast. They request discretion in reporting losses until the end of operations to protect their troops' safety. Jonathan notes other similar groups like the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and the "Siberia Legion."
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Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 07:58-13:45⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of a confirmed Russian 39Ya6 "Caster" 2E2 radar system destroyed by HIMARS.
- A Ukrainian SAM site was targeted by a Russian drone strike, potentially destroying a Patriot missile system (confirmation is pending). The drone strike successfully targeted the radar and command centre.
- The importance of neutralising Russian Orlan, Zala, and Supercam reconnaissance drones is emphasised. These drones enable Russia to target Ukrainian positions, and their destruction, even with expensive missiles, is justified due to the high cost of them remaining operational.
- Footage of a Ukrainian Kirpi armoured vehicle (Turkish-supplied) being towed, a destroyed US-supplied Striker, and a compilation of destroyed Ukrainian equipment (including Marders, Kozaks, MaxxPros, M113s, and Bradleys) are shown. Jonathan stresses that both sides are experiencing significant losses.
Ukrainian Drone Strike Destroys Russian Ammunition Depot
🎦 13:45-14:29⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian ammunition warehouse near the front lines. The massive secondary explosion highlights the importance of targeting such depots for both sides.
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Russian Drones Targeting Civilians in Kherson
🎦 14:29-16:41⏩
- Jonathan revisits the ongoing issue of Russian drone attacks on civilians in Kherson. Citing Euromide Press, he condemns these attacks and notes a disturbing claim from a Russian "Z-blogger" that these attacks provide "good practice" for drone operators.
- The motives behind these attacks are discussed: practice for drone operators, deliberate terrorism (to demoralise the civilian population), and pure psychopathy. Jonathan suggests a combination of these factors is likely at play.
Fire in Noginsk Market
🎦 16:41-17:26⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire at a market in Noginsk, 50 km east of Moscow, with 3,000 square meters engulfed. While there are no reported injuries, Jonathan highlights the increasing frequency of fires across Russia, suggesting an underlying cause for concern.
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Russian Missile and Drone Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 17:26-22:19⏩
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports a widespread Russian missile and drone attack. While seemingly large (8 missiles, 62 drones), analysis of historical trends from 'Dell Stats' shows a significant decrease in Russian missile barrage frequency and intensity, suggesting potential production and procurement issues.
- Out of the 8 missiles launched (2 Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 Kh-31P anti-radar missile, 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 3 S-300 SAMs in ground attack mode), none were intercepted.
- Out of the 62 Shahid drones launched, 41 were intercepted, and 14 were jammed by electronic warfare, leaving 7 drones to reach their targets.
- While individual attacks may appear limited, the cumulative effect over weeks and months inflicts substantial damage to Ukraine's energy grid, port facilities, and civilian infrastructure, grinding down both physical and psychological resilience.
- Jonathan shows footage of a Russian kamikaze drone hitting a residential building in Kryvyi Rih. It is unclear whether the drone malfunctioned due to electronic warfare or intentionally targeted the building.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
🎦 22:19-22:29⏩
Russian attacks killed at least 8 and injured 34 across Ukraine within a single day. Jonathan emphasises the devastating cumulative effect of these daily casualties over time.
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Russia Deploys Kinzhal Carriers to Belarus
🎦 22:29-24:05⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russia deploying Kinzhal hypersonic missile carriers to Belarus. This tactic, similar to Ukraine's proposed use of F-16s based in Romania for quick strikes, provides a safe haven for valuable assets, limiting Ukraine's response options. It highlights Belarus's complicity in the war.
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Attacks on Odessa
🎦 24:05-25:11⏩
- Odessa suffers its third foreign ship attack in four days, with a Panamanian-flagged vessel, the "Shui Spirit," damaged.
- This highlights Russia's strategy to cripple Ukraine's export infrastructure and economic lifeline, mirroring Ukraine's targeting of Russian oil facilities.
Russian Strike on Elderly Care Centre in Kherson
🎦 25:11-27:35⏩
- Jonathan reports a Russian attack on an elderly care centre in Stepanivka, Kherson Oblast, injuring two medical workers. This attack exemplifies Russia's disregard for civilian lives and infrastructure.
- Jonathan expresses his frustration with "both-sides-ism" in the context of the war, citing a social media interaction with a friend who downplayed Russian atrocities. Jonathan argues against false equivalence, emphasising the stark contrast in war crimes committed by each side.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Military Targets
🎦 27:35-32:47⏩
Jonathan details successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets:
- Destruction of a suspected Shahid drone warehouse in Yashkul, Krasnodar Krai, causing secondary explosions. The absence of civilian casualties, contrasted with Russian attacks, is highlighted.
- Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles struck a Russian storage facility outside Yesk, Krasnodar Krai. Jonathan speculates on the effectiveness of Neptune missiles, suggesting they may be more resilient to electronic warfare than drones.
- Drone attacks on the Maykop airfield in Adygea, Russia, caused explosions and fires. NASA's FIRMS data confirmed a fire near the runway, indicating fuel and ammunition facilities were targeted. Local evacuations suggest the presence of volatile munitions.
- Jonathan mentions the ongoing fire at the Feodosia oil depot in Crimea, which has been burning for three days after Ukrainian strikes.
Shifting Public Opinion in Russia
🎦 32:47-33:48⏩
Citing a Levada Center poll, Jonathan shares positive signs:
- Anti-war sentiment in Russia is rising, with 47% of Russians believing the war has been bad for their country, up from 38% in May.
- The perception of the war's failure for the Russian army is at its highest in 14 months, with 23% deeming it unsuccessful.
Ukrainian Public Morale Remains High
🎦 33:48-36:10⏩
Jonathan presents a Ukrainian poll indicating:
- 81% of Ukrainians believe their country can inflict serious defeats on Russia and achieve a positive outcome with Western support.
- Only 14% believe Russia is too strong for Ukraine to succeed, even with Western aid.
- While this shows a slight decline in optimism from December 2023 (87% positive), morale remains high.
Ukrainian Intelligence Chief's Frontline Involvement
🎦 36:10-36:10⏩
Jonathan shares a claim that Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov personally participated in operations near Vovchansk, overseeing the liberation of a key industrial plant. This report, while surprising, highlights the commitment of Ukraine's leadership.
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Ukraine Seizes Ship for Entering Crimean Ports
🎦 36:10-37:04⏩
Jonathan reports the seizure of a Cameroonian-flagged cargo ship, the 'USKO-MFU', by Ukrainian authorities for illegally entering ports in occupied Crimea. The captain is accused of harming Ukrainian state interests. It remains to be seen what legal ramifications will follow and whether this will deter other ships from similar activities.
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Russia Bans Discord: Impact on Military Communication
🎦 37:04-39:38⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russia's sudden ban on Discord, prompting criticism from Russian milbloggers who highlight its disastrous impact on military communication.
- Evidence reveals the Russian military's heavy reliance on Discord for coordinating drone and artillery strikes.
- This decision is compared to March 2022 when communication was less sophisticated. Russian milbloggers express anger and frustration, viewing the ban as detrimental to their war effort.
Conflicting Reports on Russian Territorial Gains
🎦 39:38-40:52⏩
Jonathan addresses conflicting reports on alleged large-scale Russian territorial gains near Siversk, Vykhno-Kamyansk, and Bilarivka. Citing Andrew Perpetua, he cautions against overreacting to limited visual evidence (like Russian flags) during periods of low visibility (fog), emphasising the need for reliable confirmation.
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Wrap Up
🎦 40:52-41:10⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, promises more content soon, and signs off.
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