Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan introduces the video - the third part of his update for 27/07/2024 focusing on Geopolitics.
Return to top⤴️
Nordic Countries seek closer military integration within NATO
🎦 00:18-04:06⏩
Jonathan discusses the strengthening of NATO as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He highlights that Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark) are looking at closer military integration, almost acting as one military, sharing airspace and standardising equipment. This has come about as a direct result of Russia's aggression. Finland and Sweden have subsequently joined NATO. Jonathan argues that many critics of NATO fail to acknowledge that it is Russia's actions that have directly led to the expansion and strengthening of NATO.
Return to top⤴️
Nordic Countries - Challenges to closer integration
🎦 04:06-07:45⏩
Jonathan continues his analysis of closer Nordic integration. He highlights some of the potential challenges:
- Historical Challenges: Nordic countries have previously struggled to integrate e.g. agreeing on a standard armoured personnel carrier and even the colour of their uniforms!
- Reliance on US: Whilst militarily capable, Nordic countries still rely heavily on US military support with approximately 70% of NATO's military capabilities coming from the US.
- Conscription: Finland can conscript considerably more troops than Norway or Sweden who would only be able to call up a fraction in comparison.
Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - The ultimate own goal
🎦 07:45-10:06⏩
Jonathan believes that Russia has scored a significant own goal by invading Ukraine which has only served to strengthen NATO. He argues that Russia's justification for invading Ukraine (NATO expansion) has been brought about by their own actions.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine looks to China and India for support
🎦 10:06-11:28⏩
With China and India being members of BRICS and having strong ties to Russia, Ukraine is keen to secure influence/support from both countries. Jonathan highlights:
- Indian Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit Kyiv in August 2024 (the first visit since Feb 2022).
- Ukraine's Foreign Minister (Dmytro Kuleba) has recently returned from a visit to China and has indicated that China are looking to end the war. Jonathan speculates what this could mean in practice.
Ukraine halts transit of Russian Oil to Slovakia and Hungary
🎦 11:28-12:19⏩
Ukraine has halted the transit of Russian Lukoil oil via the Druzhba Pipeline that travels through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary. Jonathan discusses:
- The reason for halting the transit is that Ukraine are unhappy with Slovakia and Hungary's support of Russia.
- This has caused problems for the Slovnaft refinery in Slovakia which relies on Russian oil.
- The Slovak Prime Minister (Robert Fico) has appealed to Ukraine to resume transit.
- Jonathan speculates that this could offer an opportunity for Ukraine to pressure Slovakia into making concessions.
Viktor Orban (Hungary) - Pro-Russia, Anti-EU, Pro-Trump
🎦 12:19-18:13⏩
Jonathan analyses recent comments made by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, in Romania:
- Orban has accused the US of being behind the Nordstream 2 attack.
- He has criticised Poland and the EU's support of Ukraine
- He has praised Russia and claimed that sanctions have damaged the EU and made the EU uncompetitive
- Jonathan argues that Orban is a hypocrite, as Hungary has continued to buy Russian oil and gas, whilst lecturing others not to.
- Jonathan believes that Orban is trying to position Hungary as a conduit between Russia and a Pro-Russia US (under a Trump Presidency)
Russia - US Election and Kamala Harris
🎦 18:13-25:07⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's perspective on the upcoming US election:
- Russia had been hoping for a Biden defeat and a Trump victory, assuming that this would lead to a halt in military aid to Ukraine.
- They are concerned that Biden's withdrawal and Kamala Harris's stronger performance in the polls could mean that this plan will fail.
- Jonathan believes that a Trump victory would be disastrous for Ukraine as Trump is unlikely to support Ukraine to the same extent as Biden has. He backs this up with previous actions by Trump e.g. withholding Javelins, the impeachment of Trump. He believes Trump is more likely to pressure Ukraine into accepting a peace deal that favours Russia.
Will Trump support Ukraine? Analysis of Pompeo's comments
🎦 25:07-31:17⏩
Jonathan analyses comments made by Mike Pompeo (former US Secretary of State under Trump) in the Wall Street Journal about a potential peace plan:
- Whilst acknowledging that some of Pompeo's proposals are reasonable, Jonathan believes that there is little to suggest that Trump would implement them.
- He argues that much has been said by Trump and his allies (JD Vance, Steve Bannon) that indicates that he would not be as supportive of Ukraine as Biden.
- Pompeo's claims that Trump provided Javelins to Ukraine are false - Congress approved the Javelins (both Democrats and Republicans) and Trump tried to use them as leverage to obtain dirt on Biden which subsequently led to his impeachment.
Harris Presidency - Implications for Ukraine and Russia
🎦 31:17-36:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential implications of a Kamala Harris Presidency on Ukraine:
- Michael McFall (former US Ambassador to Russia) has written an article arguing that Harris would be tougher on Russia and more supportive of Ukraine than Trump.
- Trump has shown a preference for dictators over democratically elected leaders and is likely to side with Russia.
- Ten Dollars (a source Jonathan uses frequently) believes that Russia fears a Harris Presidency as she will be far tougher on them than Biden and will continue to support Ukraine.
- Nikki Haley (former US ambassador to the UN) has said that she believes that the candidate who is not in their 80s will win the 2024 election. Jonathan seems to agree.
"Haley Voters for Harris"
🎦 36:05-38:19⏩
- Following Nikki Haley's withdrawal from the US Presidential Election, a group of her supporters have formed a Political Action Committee called "Haley Voters for Harris".
- Haley has launched a legal challenge against the group as she doesn't want her name associated.
- Jonathan highlights that Mark Kelly (Senator for Arizona and former Astronaut) is being suggested as a possible VP. Jonathan thinks this could be a strong option.
Wrap Up
🎦 38:19-38:24⏩
Jonathan ends the video.
Return to top⤴️
"We'll go down, I swear, the invasion of Ukraine will go down as one of the worst geopolitical decisions in history"
