Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"These aren't just numbers, this is human lives lost in an absolutely pointless and horrific war."
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts with the usual caveats about the Ukraine General Staff figures for Russian losses, emphasizing that these numbers represent real human lives lost in a pointless war. He notes a significant uptick in tanks and armoured personnel vehicles lost, as well as continued high artillery losses, questioning how sustainable this is for Russia.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Oryx Figures
The latest Oryx numbers show more parity between Ukrainian and Russian losses compared to recent weeks. Russian losses include a T-90M tank, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, logistics trucks, and a surface-to-air missile system. Ukrainian losses are mostly infantry fighting vehicles and APCs, along with two pontoon bridge layers which will be valuable and hard to replace.
Return to top⤴️
Russian POW Interview
An interview with a captured Russian soldier from the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment reveals tremendous losses, with two companies (200 men) lost when the Ukrainian counter-offensive started. Morale is low, and Kadyrovites are used as blocking troops to prevent retreat. The soldier also mentions poor supplies and having to steal, while being treated well by his Ukrainian captors.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Equipment Losses
Footage shows the destruction of various pieces of Russian equipment, including two self-propelled howitzers, tanks, APCs, radars/electronic warfare systems, and a command centre for FPV drones. While the Ukrainians are also likely suffering losses, particularly in areas like Robotyne, the quantity of footage of Russian losses is significant.
Return to top⤴️
Increased JDAM Usage
Ukraine appears to be using more JDAM precision-guided munitions, likely indicating suppression of Russian electronic warfare capabilities. This is good news for Ukraine, as these weapons are very useful. However, Russia has apparently upgraded to a devastating 1500kg version of their FAB-500 bombs.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Complaints about Ukrainian Aviation
Russian VDV paratroopers are complaining about daily attacks by Ukrainian aircraft in the Robotyne-Vuhledar axis, using cluster munitions. This is ironic given Russia's previous claims to have destroyed the Ukrainian Air Force. The difficult combat conditions are noted as requiring the highest training and attention from the soldiers.
Return to top⤴️
Fires in Moscow
Another fire has occurred in northeast Moscow, with witnesses reporting popping noises or explosions. Russian emergency services claim it was just burning rubbish and has been extinguished. The psychological effect of these incidents in the Russian capital is likely significant.
Return to top⤴️
Drone and Missile Attacks
- Ukrainian air defences destroyed 32 of 44 Shahed drones that attacked overnight, mainly in Odesa and Sumy regions. The high flight altitude of the drones (5km+) makes them harder to intercept with systems like Gepards.
- Damage in Odesa includes grain trucks on fire and port infrastructure hit. The attacks have destroyed food for 1 million people for a year.
- A drone attack was reported on the Redkinsky chemical plant in Tver, Russia, which produces aviation and space industry products. Powerful explosions were heard but Russia claims the drone was shot down with only debris hitting the plant.
Sevastopol Attack and Starlink Controversy
Ukraine conducted a major attack on the crucial Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea, hitting a drydock area and damaging a Kilo-class submarine and Ropucha-class landing ship. The attack involved both naval drones and cruise missiles like Scalp/Storm Shadow, and is part of a larger effort to degrade Russia's Black Sea Fleet and air defences. Controversially, Starlink coverage appeared to go offline globally during the attack. Elon Musk and his biographer have made conflicting statements about whether this was deliberate on SpaceX's part to prevent Ukraine from using Starlink offensively. Jonathan criticises Musk's distinction between offensive and defensive use as arbitrary and problematic. The Crimean Bridge was also closed again for unspecified reasons, further impacting the functionality of Crimea which is heavily dependent on the bridge and Sevastopol.
Return to top⤴️
Putin Praises Musk
In a concerning development, Vladimir Putin has praised Elon Musk as an "outstanding" and "talented" businessman, while expressing Russia's willingness to support private space businesses. Given Musk's influence over Starlink and global communications, his relationship with Russia is worrying for Ukraine and global security.
Return to top⤴️
Information Warfare Challenges
An anecdote about an analyst facing a swarm of pro-North Korea bot accounts after publishing an assessment highlights the growing challenge of state-sponsored information warfare and subversion in online spaces. The increasing reach of nefarious state actors into our collective information environment is a major concern.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan apologises for a longer video and going off on some tangents. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share, and says he will speak to them again soon.
Return to top⤴️
